Member Info for DRB83

PI100, not sure if you're based on the Antarctic but covid is causing all sorts of problems across the rest of the world. Flights cancelled, hospitals at full capacity, people dieing. It's far from done and dusted. Non covid products launching in Q4 or possibly q1 2023. Do we have to put up with your incessant moaning about covid until then?

Maybe sell up, invest elsewhere to recover your losses and then about August think of buying back in here. It's up to you of course but may be worth you considering that approach.

The SP very rarely matches the fundamentals on AIM imo. Today's RNS was obviously positive for the business Vs not getting approval. The SP went down a few %. The value gap just increased further today, marginally. Our job as investors is to find the biggest value gaps and invest accordingly. Then wait for the SP to sling shot above the fundamentals which will be your potential sell point. Plenty of things to be optimistic about here. GLA

Hi Positive Investor 100. Recovering from a SP of £1.30's. Covid will generate us north of £50m revenue this year. Covid is no longer the hot topic but it will still be generating many millions for ncyt for years to come. Yes, non covid products are the way forward but if you feel so negatively about your holding then surely selling and reinvesting into something you believe in would be a much better strategy for yourself. I hold because I believe I see lots of value here.

But reading between the lines tells me that demand is sufficient for the other 9 products.

It's been almost 6 months since the first CTDA RNS so an update on the 11 products was well over due. Can't update us on just the good ones. Need to be open and honest and positive where possible.

An investor that doesn't see any recovery. Assume you're selling then and therefore won't need to share your negative opinions with us anymore.

Recovery still in 1st gear in my opinion.

A lot of people sat on the sidelines that just jumped in there. When it moves it moves fast. 200k shares. Don't believe BIO's previous buying action has resulted in such big buys so maybe we have a knight in shining white armour. We'll find out soon. GLA

Hillseeker, I optimistically included some growth in our non covid sales to get to my £60m revenue. Not long to wait for Q1 actuals. Hopefully we get them as part of the strategy update.

What we thinking?

We don't have quarterly guidance but an annual figure of approx £60m

If it's flatlined then £15m per quarter. I personally believe it will be more weighted to the front end so I'm looking for Q1 revenue in the range of £15-25m

What will also be telling is the op margin / EBITDA. Have we maintained the 70% op margin or will price decreases have an effect. Hoping 70% holds.

What have we done to cut the admin costs as a result of the drop in revenue. Seriously doubt we will be able to maintain the 40% but that would be a great achievement. More likely to see 30% imo.

So my forecast for Q1 is

Revenue £20m
Op Margin £13m
EBITDA £6m
Cash improvement £5m
Cash balance £107m

Obviously lots of moving parts in the cash figure so let's see what we get.

The more we move away from the pandemic the higher our pe ratio should get as the market starts to get more confidence in our long term revenues. With a pe of 15 on £18m profit in FY22 is a £270m mcap or £3.80.

This imo is an absolute base and does not include a dispute resolution or any major partnerships BIO or customer contracts TATA DHSC.

Gla

I'd like some reimbursement for the £30m stock write off also please.

Resolution isn't just about adding £70m to the mcap that would come from the cash payment from DHSC. It opens oh so many doors for us. It would be a significant base jump when it arrives.

Val, I'm not convinced every buy needs a sell. I see the MM's as kind of a shop keeper. They accept your sells and pass them on to a buyer (at a slightly higher price) when one turns up. If there isn't a buyer they will hold until one turns up. They will have orders to fill. I believe it is possible for MM's to lose out during moments of sudden high drops and spikes hence you get the 'NT to sell', basically during a NT to sell, even the MM's don't want your stock. MM's won't keep lots of stock but it is essential for them to do their job imo. I have no first hand knowledge of this but just the way I see it

Val, it is possible that some of those were buys. Particularly the 235's. However, the £50k trade earlier was at 231. The SP has not been that low so no way it would have been a buy imo.

It certainly doesn't help when someone keeps offloading in 5k chunks on the Euro. Seen it now a few days, several transactions at a time. Strange but it explains why the SP is being held back given all the positives we've got going on.

That's clearly a sell. So much selling pressure it's a possitive that we are still trading in the 230's. I'm very surprised that the CEO buying in at 231 has triggered so much selling pressure. If I look at the situation positively then I tell myself that someone is buying in France which is counteracting the sells in AIM. The sells hopefully will be from the traders who will be looking at the stochastic and seeing us 'overbought' for several days and that we've failed to break through the 100ema.

If that is the case then hopefully if the French buyer keeps buying then eventually the trader sells will dry up and the buying pressure will send us north of the 100ema. At that point the traders will start buying pushing us up to the next resistance point. As always, it can go either way but I am a little disappointed that we didn't have a better response to the recent CEO buy.

Yes, I put the first pause down to the war and the uncertainty in the markets it caused. Not sure why this time.

Clueless, I would imagine if Bio have a plan then they wouldn't want to hang around as any collaboration between ncyt and Bio will in their eyes add great value to the organisation. Time is money. Anyone know how long it took Bio to build their position in their previous target. Apologies, the name escapes me.

Breaking the 100 EMA on the daily doesn't appear to be going easily imo. Tested it 2-3 times now recently and it's still got us bogged down. A bio Tr1 would help us blast through it but not quite sure what the hold up is. They only need 300k ish shares more. we're approaching 3 weeks since 5.54%. Strange.

Thanks for clarifying HarChris. Not sure why they have a 30 day rule before end if year results, pretty sure most Bod's will already have a good feel for what they look like.

As long as the news wasn't known before the director buy then maybe yes but there's still lots of news that can happen in the next 30 days.

Bio buy more
DHSC decide next week to agree to Ncyt's terms (not likely but possible)
CTDA product approvals
New test for new variant (I've always said April for a new VOC)
Large contract wins
New TR1's
New Joint Ventures

Also, not sure I agree with the 30 day rule. A company like ncyt who have a conveyor belt of products in R&D would be permanently locked out. The rule also encourages the BOD to 'slow down' just so they can buy in, which is counter productive for a start up or fast growing business. Take a look at BOOM, results due out in a couple of weeks and the Chairman has been mopping up shares on a daily basis.

There was a 20k share purchase late in the day today. Could be GR. Find out Monday

Can't see there been any NCYT business news out next week but it's been a while since BIO got to 5.54%. is that it now then. They just decided to build a little stake in NCYT just as trial run before turning in to a fully fledged II. I don't think so.

Not long till we find out Bob