Member Info for DRB83

So the £100m is organic. That answers my question. How can DA achieve the LTIP with only £60m revenue pa. He can't so he must have big plans for inorganic revenue. That lifts the confidence levels a little.

More II = increased sp = achieve LTIP

LTIP certainly not achievable without II's

That's why I think DA will want to attract II's.

Wow, finally completed my review of the RNS and it's safe to say my enthusiasm for Ncyt's potential has completely receded.

We always new covid sales would drop but I hinged everything on the £100m cash we had to play with. It seems is strategy is to keep it in the bank.

His strategy doesn't seem to align with the LTIP he signed up to. £7.77 by Dec24.

So DA is targeting excess of £100m in 5 years. That probably means a little over £100m so for arguments sake I'll use £100m. By end of 2026 DA targets £100m revenue.

The LTIP expires 2024 so let's say we have £60m revenues by end of 2024. I will assume this is all non covid. Non covid revenues in 2022 are likely to be £15m so let's assume DA's strategy is to increase revenues yoy by 100% in the first 2 years. So 2023 = £30, 2024 = £60m

DA says he will pull out all the stops to maintain a EBITDA in "double digits" Wow, really. 10% is double digits. I'm not going that low but let's say 25%. That's a EBITDA of £15m by end of FY24.

The LTIP is £7.77 or £550m mcap. At that mcap we would require a pe ratio of 37. That's nearly double the 20 I usually use when valuing ncyt in the past.

Using the 20 you get a mcap of £300m or sp of £4.22.

So DA imo has built a strategy that won't even come close to reaching the top level of the LTIP.

Where's the ambition? Sorry fellow genuine holders but I can't say I'm happy with that. Extremely disappointed.

My only hope now is that BIO see the long term value here and load up at these prices.

A very detailed positive strategy update
More director buys
Further BIO TR1's

That's all that is needed over the next week. Come on! It's not impossible. GLA squeaky bum time fast approaching.

Agreed Hillseeker.

Byp, grow up

All the best PI100.

Byp, I will let the man himself answer all of your questions Thursday. Hopefully you come back with your tail between your legs.

We have to 53 bag to get back to ALH's. Ridiculously unbelievable

How to take a potentially great business and completely destroy it in under a year. 108 to 2p. Wow. Just wow

This is quite unbelievable.

Emotions running high again. He's less than 2 days away from showing us what he's been working on over the last 6 months. Let's see what he's concluded.

Moniman,

Yes you are correct. You're figures include VAT. I have included those figures in my calculations excluding VAT. £20m and £41m.

I too agree there is merit in a counter claim for orders promised, not received and certainly obsolete stock but park that as a counter claim will be a bonus.

Focusing on the DHSC claim of £135m. This relates to Q420 revenue. I believe the claim will be for the full invoiced amount therefore including VAT. Exc VAT is £112m

Of that £112m amount DHSC never paid us £20m so we would obviously not have to pay that back. Net owing £92m

I do believe the £41m held back by the DHSC is unrelated to the dispute but DHSC held it back because of the dispute. The product they received for the £41m was Promate and has been used so the £41m will need paying to us most likely by reducing our payment to DHSC assuming we lose the dispute. Therefore, net owing to DHSC now £51m

Now Include the impact on tax. Corporate tax - we made £132m profit in 2020 from memory. Any reduction in revenue will come straight off the bottom line so we can expect a significant tax rebate. If we have to issue £112m of credit notes then the tax rebate could be as much as £20m. We may not get all this back immediately.

Therefore the net impact on cash that a complete loss in court will have is somewhere between £30-40m. This is worse case.

This will not end the company as our resident troll PI100 kindly put it. He sees £135m claim and compares to £102m in bank and arrives at 'oh shat'. The real accounting is to complex for a simpleton.

It would leave us with north of £60m which is still an unbelievable amount of cash for a company currently worth £120m. I don't expect this news to have any bearing on the strategy soon to be revealed.

I am however expecting some negative accounting adjustments in the year end account. My guess is that the net assets will reduce to £120-130m.

Of course, so what settlement have you calculated? Please share as I have.

Sorry PI100, care to share some facts to disprove my numbers and support your claim. It will be a first for you.

Our potential liability is not £134m

This likely includes VAT of £26m,

Then there is £20m they never paid us.

Then there is £41m they haven't paid us from Q1 21.

That gets me to £47m.

Then there would be a tax rebate

Don't get me wrong. This is not great news but it's not as bad as it sounds. That's also assuming worse case that we lose 100%.

No doubt about it though. In the short term the market will be red for ncyt. Shame I was fully stocked.

Don't worry, soon covid will reach the end of the earth and have no where to go but over the edge.

Drilling is a bit like battleships. Early indications show we have at least a couple of potentially huge battleships in our license area. Today we got close with a couple of shots. Doesn't mean the battleships aren't there. Next time we use what we learned today to fire another few rounds and hope we get a direct hit. Then we'll look to see just how big this battleship is. In the meantime, we have plenty of news flow to come from our other projects. Comfortable here.

In Bill we trust.