Member Info for dougb189

Might partly explain the mystery behind the extra $1.3B funding that TL recently withdrew from their nearly depleted petroleum fund ie a big share or outright ownership of a new floating lng vessel.
Would then give TL a bigger slice of Chudditch than their current 25% or c.$10B stake.

Reckon it is possible ; Essar effectively been black-balled by KK / Nigeria, courtesy of having taken KK to a UK court and then having won. You can then perhaps input Essar’s development costs of c.$70M and come in at a lower figure that is acceptable to them as a write-off. The same year the company spent c.$700M on development costs for new overland gas piping in India, which then gave them a seat at the table with PM Modi. So, say c.$20M to $30M offer from AM, might be considered cheeky, but Essar have new offshore management in place who might be looking at new directions. & $20M to AM would just be yet another debt loan, with KK being the billionaire developer. Would definitely be worth a cheeky bid, assuming AM can offload or return a divi from Atomic.

‘..RBD bb is silent on this matter…’

That’s not totally correct Shouston : courtesy of the very poor price that was paid by Shell for the Victory Field, then RBD only get c.£12M from the deal. That figure then makes up approximately half of their total quick assets from a total c.£22M.
Considering that RBD’s mc is only rated at £23M inclusive of some v.promising licence developments (the bb generally look at Dunrobin as being v.low on their list of priorities) then the low sp suggests there is a serious problem with the market’s perception of the bod with zero premium applied. Hence why a lot of the bb have been posting good arguments for & against the proposed bod takeover.

As for Lloyd’s latest ramptastic post aka ‘Shell buying Dunrobin’ then it only takes the average Pi a few seconds to join the dots.
Confident we will see good news but the energy seems to be more focussed on the Timor Straits.

There is confirmed significant buying by shore capital on level 3 & as pointed out previously is targeting buys c.2p

A couple of the TG’s eagle-eyed gals have spotted a rather strange coincidence : the most active broker over the last couple of days SHRC and who are strongly tied into Fastnet Oil & Gas.
The successful wee company that Cathall Freill was boss of.
And who is currently taking on the bod at RBD…
Lol a small mcCalum’s might just be needed.

That Level 3 looks like some v.impressive software hfb,
but at c.£2K/month is a wee bit nippy.
I’m guessing that TG’s AS gets use of it via being in the trade.

Shouston.. The broker mm SHRC generally does tier 1 clients, investment funds & assets m, and has bought significantly up to and around .2

TG’s AS (with Level 3) reporting that SHRC have traded c.450M and are targeting below .2

Ref Jarvy’s possible acquisitions…
On similar lines, RBD has a possible take over by Cathal Freil,
who is proposing the below. Can’t help but feeling that with his Very extensive O&G experience he has a possible partner /JV in mind, which may or may not cover Dunrobin;

‘..We both have considerably more experience operating and turning around struggling public companies than Reabold’s existing Board, and we are relishing the opportunity to implement significant improvements to Reabold. These improvements are under the following areas: Return cash to shareholders; Appoint an appropriate and experienced CEO; we are in discussions with two appropriate candidates; Realise substantially higher value from existing projects; and Capitalise on several new asset deals, which will involve no dilution of equity for the shareholders.,’

The info is taken from the TG.
Check out AS’s posts & screenshots, he has access to the Level 3 software.

‘…The company had about GBP2.4m in free cash reserves at end 1H22, up from GBP1.7m at year end. Cash was bolstered by a GBP1.5m placement..
..In its last results, published 23rd August, Baron Oil reported a loss before taxation of GBP419,000 for 1H22, up from a loss of GBP117,000 for 1H21. The company reported a net loss of GBP1.1m for calendar year 2021. However, the figures quoted a one-off cash gain of GBP302,000 partially due to its Peruvian exit..’

H1 2022 burn was then £419k & at end of H1 was calculated funds of £2.4M
End of H2 might then see another -c.£419k & leaving c.£2M.
More than enough cushion to cover for a CPR.

If a placing was to be done then be seen that when last placing was done, was a very frugal raise, no excessive spending.

Nice that the Shell exploratory well Chudditch-1 is now a sizeable contender for LNG. That NE quadrant partly lies in oz territory so may come in useful for arguing that piping heads south. And another prospect with the new Quokka lead. Recent huge uplift in TL budget of an extra $1.3B, c.10% of TL’s remaining available funds 2 will hopefully soon shed further light on which direction the Greater Sunrise will head.

“..,Chuditch-1 gas discovery best case Recoverable Resource estimate of 1,350 BCF is materially larger and may independently represent a Liquefied Natural Gas ("LNG") scale resource

· Chuditch SW prospect Gas-In-Place estimate has increased, but greater structural complexity may imply a lower recovery factor

· Extension of sizable Chuditch NE Lead onto 3D seismic data area confirmed

· The previously unevaluated 'Quokka' Lead extends onto the 3D seismic data area…”

Thanks HFB for further clarifying.

Could then be read that the TL.gov subsidiary Timor Gap appear to be the very likely beneficiary of the extra $1.3B that has recently been allocated to next year’s budget, which the cabinet are currently keeping the details of, in private. The sum itself is on the small side for a Sunrise development (unless the new psc agreement has now been reached with Woodside) currently estimated at c.$14.1B but does fall neatly into the range expected for a development on Chudditch :

‘…Updated project costings by independent energy consulting group ERCE estimate that the total capital expenditure for the LNG project construction would be $US11.8 billion in Darwin and $US14.1 billion in East Timor, according to the report finalised for the Timor Gap entity in July 2021.
The $US2.3 billion cost differential calculated last year for construction is a fraction of the original $US10.3 billion difference ($US20.5 billion in East Timor versus $US10.2 billion in Darwin) based on studies and engineering work completed in 2015..’

https://archive.ph/RPIJE

I am Strongly suspecting that your thread’s title may very soon come about. Appreciated bud.

That is Appreciated passitron
but that is almost as cryptic (rushed) as HFB’s parts 3, 1, 4 & 2..

There’s an extra $1.3B being put onto the TL budget for next year.. Y/N?

And it looks like it is tied into O&G development..Y/N ?

Which may or may not be Chudditch. A known unknown.

Lol, but it is appreciated bud.

Morning bud, are you suggesting that the extra $1.355B put into the budget is being used to pay off their loan of $650M to their petroleum fund, via a possible Chudditch development..?
Lol, but is again rather cryptic. Grab a Costa bud!

I hear though what you are saying about a possible placing :
‘… If it is to advance Dunrobin , keeping our full quota and funds for a drill sooner so be it…’

Is that is obviously quite possible, but suspecting that our lead player Andy Butler will not take to kindly to an excessive dilution on his holdings, especially given his contacts & standing within TL

Of note perhaps.. Our partner on Dunrobin are now sitting with around £22M being quickly available via their healthy cash assets plus a small additional shareholding & are now seeing the attention of the activist investor Kamran Sattar . Is difficult imo to see why a short could be the main play of the activist (he was alleged to have crashed Love Hemp) as the RBD mc is at £23M ie they have basically as much cash in the funds as they have mc. Then in addition to the cash they have some very very attractive licences, which I’m suspecting is now being targeted, inclusive of Dunrobin.

As per the latest RNS and we should get a wee bit further direction this week :

‘..we have materially…reviewed engineering considerations; and researched the routes to commercialisation…’

Lol. Boris is the man but…Goldman Sachs back into no.11 ???
Was it true that they successfully shorted Greece, in addition to their well known short on the American public & institutions with their highly rated “Best Buy” toxic mortgages ?!
Mr.T gets my vote for no.11, he’s done some sterling work sorting out the other figures this evening. Rather hoping though we don’t get too involved to that much detail on here, but that we simply become resident well-off NOP partner on two nice big fields.

I’d disagree that TL would be strongly anti about the gas getting piped south. Yes their permission would be required, but there may be a case that any additional upgrades to the field capacity may be on account of the portion of the survey that also covered the Oz side.

If then there is an upgrade to the field that is deemed to be on the Oz side then that might provide enough sound argument / reasoning for the production flows to then head south.

It’s just that from looking at the maps, the recent increase in the 3D acreage analysis, then seems to tie in with the size of the portion of the survey done over the Oz side of the maritime boundary. Which after all is reckoned to be where the main kitchens are..

Was similar thought. The interpretation of ‘integrating these strands…inclusive of reviewed engineering (new route to market?)… & of routes to commercialisation..’ leaves me thinking that there will be multiple parties on board, say with a 10% slice each (significant energy security for each NOP if field estimates are say near the conservative 5T figure) and then compelling enough to satisfy TL, with their 25% holding so estimated to be perhaps c.$10B to the island. Then acts as a financial stepping stone for their Sunrise.

Hi Tiburn, guessing that most peeps will be looking slightly beyond just an increase in resources (which were previously estimated at 4.5T, then Andy Butler last month suggested that he thought a figure of 5T would be conservative). On top of that the bb guru hfb reckons there is a possibility of 10T courtesy of the original Shell analysis. Outwith these results you then end up with a fairly similar situation to Wyoming and its zillions of untapped resources.

Hence i suspect most peeps will be looking a bit beyond just having uprated resources and will be hoping that there is some new direction with respect to getting to the market.

I think most peeps will be tuning into the possibility of partnerships. I’m reading that its the up & coming developing countries that are screaming out for quick gas. That the Philippines & Indonesia may step in. As hfb often quotes though it has ti be with TL’s permission. Hopefully some good news this week and with two prospective fields in two of the hottest market regions on the planet, fairly confident we will get to hear of some new developments.