Member Info for dougb189

Lol, will be a wee can of Irn Bru to wash down these costas.

‘HFB do you know who the large E&P company is ?’

Guessing on JF’s 10 years with BP and who then ‘throttled back’ courtesy of their ESG doctrines from last year, but for which the equations have now all changed..

‘… Obviously if your holding a few grand it's probably worth the gamble here but there's a few with 6 and 7 fig holdings in AXL who will become multi millionaires from their investments...’

Lol, but You are already way way behind the curve ;
TG’s Aimranger has already scored a 7 figure sum with this stock and then opted to just take a wee slice. Now sitting on a free ride c.£600k. Most LTH having loaded up here in the 6’s & 7’s.
Try keep a cool head & don’t be a robbie (reckon that might have been him buying back in earlier today).
Good luck with your investment, shame though that you feel so insecure that you need to cross-ramp.

There’s an LSE poster who covered Rock Rose & recently Kistos who is an ex-work acquaintance of Jon Ford, who highly recommends JF’s previous work. Tied into BP.

“…Shell Plc didn’t pay the UK windfall tax in the third quarter, a period in which its profit doubled to $9.45 billion, because it was making big investments in North Sea fields..”

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/uk_mulls_extending_windfall_tax_on_oil_gas_companies-03-nov-2022-170936-article/

Has me looking at Jon Ford & his contacts inclusive of BP’s Indonesia set-up.

Santa rally this year bud ? Assuming that he don’t get nuked ?!

There does currently appear to be a ‘window of opportunity’
Either a JV or buy-out, either then provides a significant rerate.

Suspect that Illusion’s theory is the most logical, ie ‘.. I think the accelerated conversion could be good news that big changes are approaching..’

Today’s converted bonds :
$1.4M then generated 6,996,500 shares,
immediately tells you that the floor price level is 20.01 cents
& not the earlier quoted “10p”

The BH tranches are acquired in dollars but then sold in Sterling,
ie. July rates then saw the shelf price of 16.75p

The £/$ though has shifted, from July’s £/$ rate 1.1948 (16.75p)
Down to 1.12 £/$ which then Raises the shelf price to 17.86p

Using today’s £/$ & 17.86p the BH then has to cover :
the 119% early redemption fee & so an ‘early’ share is marked at 21.26p
But they still get the 78% principle reduction which then gives 16.58p

The break-even price of 16.58p has not been seen for over a week,
Which then suggests, as per Illusion’s thinking,
That there may indeed be an accumulation going on.

Guessing that the raised funds £117k will be now used for chasing those additional North Sea licences in January.

Will be a buzz waiting on an updated Allenby report, inputting both this year’s surge in commodity prices & the surge in each nation’s quest to seek energy security.

What was the latest figure for Chudditch…. 5.2Tcfg?

& from HFB’S early last year’s article :

Oil and Gas conference 25th March 2021

Offshore Greater Sunrise: A $75 billion oil and gas giant?

Timor Leste is the majority shareholder in the Greater Sunrise fields, containing more
than 5.13 trillion cubic feet of gas, worth at least 50 billion dollars. (Sunrise)
……..
(Troubadour)

& never eat yellow snow..

& never never take a leak into a poly bag when inside a tent without A. checking the tent door is open and that B. there are no holes in the poly bag [as all heard from the adjacent dry tent pegged on a ledge at 7000m]….

Which is also applicable here… keep some dry powder.

‘..Almost 95% of shares are in retail investor hands so there’s no one for Art to canvass if an offer is made. There is therefore no way of knowing what offer would get passed under a vote…’

I suspect there is a weakness in the above statement which imv hinges on the timing required for a TO to be announced and for the equity to then be suspended ie. ifthere is any delay then 60% of equity could soon then be in the hands of Ryan’s chums..

If the BH unload their available outstanding 108M shares (that’s 40% of the vote) within the next 7 weeks or a possible 136M shares after the floor drops at Xmas, & they will still have their 54,792,590 warrants available to them at 16.75p (17% of any current T.O vote, but 60% if they also get their bonds floated).

AM I’m guessing owns c.10% (inclusive of his options) hence a T.O./JV targeting an mc of c£380M and an sp c.£1 from a quick sale, would both cover the current arrangements & be amenable to AM.

A 40p price would be very amenable to the Bond Holders who are currently happily scalping the market for a few $$’s.

If a cheeky T.O came in and everything is immediately suspended, then AM has to prioritise all the debts, options, warrants hence thinking why he may have a Machiavellian moment as seen by the delayed flow rates..

Good posts earlier this morning from activist investor looking at removing the RBD bod and what they are proposing:

‘..Corallian Assets (North Sea Licenses)

Our plan is to commence the farm out of the recently acquired Corallian assets, completing similar deals to the Daybreak deal, where revenue and shareholder value can be rapidly realised;
We see significant potential with these licenses however we do not have sufficient confidence that the Board can realise this value given there recent track record of executing sub-optimal deals for Reabold’s shareholders…’

The Daybreak involved farm-out to US O&G production company, derisking whilst creating returns for shareholders. Cathall Friell is a v.experienced O&G operator with good success & access to other top players. It looks as if he’s keen on a quick farm out for RBD’s newly acquired north sea licences which are inclusive of Dunrobin.

Hopefully as jarvy posted & we get an updated mention on the 8th.

As rerates go, then AM will sadly be playing second fiddle to the rerate currently happening in China :

Bloomberg News.
‘How a Mysterious China Screenshot Spurred a $450B rally.

Nobody is quite sure who wrote it, when it was written or even if it’s true. But a screenshot of four paragraphs detailing a China reopening plan was enough for traders to scoop up stocks for two days running..’

From the ‘unofficial’ (the traders believe its from the top man) report, then next March & China is following US & HK in the removal of most covid restrictions & dropping a lot of their lock-downs.

Stocks in the MSCI China Index were up $320B & more gains on Wednesday brought the two-day total to $450B.

Guessing the planned timing its possibly tied into post winter flu bugs & energy consumption but should still see a v.significant spike in energy demand.

Looks like we are again heading for another energy crunch :

Bloomberg News.
‘How a Mysterious China Screenshot Spurred a $450B rally.

Nobody is quite sure who wrote it, when it was written or even if it’s true. But a screenshot of four paragraphs detailing a China reopening plan was enough for traders to scoop up stocks for two days running..’

From the ‘unofficial’ (the traders believe its from the top man) report then next March China is following US & HK in the removal of most covid restrictions & dropping a lot of their lock-downs.

Stocks in the MSCI China Index were up $320B & more gains on Wednesday brought the two-day total to $450B.

Guessing its possibly tied into post winter energy consumption but should still see a significant spike in energy demand.

‘…but why would they do that…’
& as earlier, there is a line of thought, it is to prevent further dilutions on every spike.

Eazy I’m still smiling with your misconceptions:
‘ We’re getting the September figures today…it’s not Art that releases them it’s the WOGCC’

A year before you arrived at this bb, prior to October 2021, then the SWP production figures for the previous month were updated in the 2nd week of the following month. Last October the resident Sherlock, Mr.T then sourced these figures, which at that time showed that AM’s quoted increases for August were incorrect. And ever since then, AM has delayed sending the SWP data till the last day of the month…

Currently and it’s an ‘incremental increase of the taps’. Albeit the flares were opened mid-September ?!

‘If your AM what do you do’

Some are thinking out-with current opinions & that AM perhaps recognises that this is a project beyond his reach, that finding the materials & funds needed during these turbulent times is proving v.difficult. Everyone was expecting the flaring to produce results but the taps have now been held back.

Maybe it then hints at AM avoiding further unnecessary dilution on the back of a wee spike which raises the question, Why…

So, IF a buyout/ JV was on the cards, then it would need to be in the region of £380M at current stock options & paying off the BH’s remaining c.£20M + senior debt c.£24M plus perhaps a divi of £1/share.
Capping any further dilution & opening the way to deeper waters.

That price might also enable COPL to keep a small % holding and so pay the bod their future wages, in effect a reversal of the 1st $8M down-payment for Atomic, which if the deal had later fallen thru, would still have given a 15% holding in the field & was a sufficient enough source of funds to then pay COPL’s wages over the quoted 40 year Atomic field life.

Perhaps Machiavelli is being resurrected again.
There is a wee buzz that something might just be on the cards.

I’d sadly disagree that further dilution was totally unreasonable.

The missed forecast dates for an RBL which then saw the 1st arising of last month’s sweetener aka ‘we’ve got a JV on the cards’ & then this month’s sweetener ‘we’ve found 6 responsive wells’ all tie in with AM’s historical data.

Apologies on the inaccuracies in the reported 144M shares incoming from BH, this was calculated last month prior to their latest off-loading. That figure was for all the remaining bonds at that time then being converted at the floor rate of c.10p. If converted at 13.5p then the figure was closer to 122M additional shares.

A fair assessment, some might say.

There could though be the additional pro of Atomic being fully/partly (JV) bought out and AM then being removed from controlling. I say this is a pro courtesy that he will then have enough funds to take on OPL226 with KK as the financial partner. He was a far better operator in the deeps with its access to similar deep pockets.

The cons are as stated namely Ryan, I laughed when reading the thread ‘he should be sacked’. I had frequently requested that he gets taken outside and shot.

The biggest con though as seen by the market has to be AM.
He’s a serial liar.
He has zero credibility with the financial institutions, as seen when Hadron Capital dumped their entire stock, shortly after buying c.12% stake, only to find that a few weeks later, AM had diluted them by c.30%.
The LTH started 2020 at c.3.5B OS, which then grew by year’s end to 4.8B OS, when the Atomic announcement was made, then grew to c.16B OS 2021 prior to a reverse spilt 100:1. And has since grown from 160 M to c.260M (26B or x 600%). No one trusts him.

Currently the share tally is 7 weeks away from being c.500M [(268M currently) + (144M OS from BH] + (50M warrants & options to BOD) + (5M+ to Ryan’s chums)]. Then add on another possible senior loan & it then looks as if Copl may get a 100B shares (in last year’s currency) or 1000M shares in this year’s currency.

Fingers crossed that the reserves are indeed bordering on strategic, that AM gets removed, that he then gets back into deep waters.