Member Info for dougb189

Thanks HFB, lots of good info there. The fiscal cliff in graphics.
A possible 3 projects under preparation.
And some colourful budget explanations:

‘..The proposed Supplemental State Budget for 2022 will put the overall budget expenditure at about $3,309 million. This $1,130 million increase in the budget ceiling is expected to result in only an extra 0.2% increase in GDP over previous forecasts based on the approved budget (from 2.7% to 2.9%). This is because about $1 billion of the spending is intended to be put into a fund for the National Liberation Fighters…’

Lol. That’s now a really shady poker chip ?!

$1B ear-marked for the veteran OAP’s but with a clause that ‘we won’t use it’.
It’s probably though the safest place to ‘deposit’ a billion dollars, as no government departments would dare touch it. Possible off-the-book black-ops, at Sunrise ??

Thanks again bud, will try read thru it.

Good points hfb.

Do we still have that Singapore bank offer c.$20M which was made around the start of 2018/19 when they were then putting the current planning timescale together, ie seismics 2022 & 1st drill 2023 ?

I’m still watching the Philippines and their partnership with Singspore & small Oz company, for 3 LNG terminals

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/philippines-sees-3-lng-import-terminals-starting-operations-early-2023-2022-09-27/

& for which Bloomberg recently reported that the Philippines have difficulty in getting supplies.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/timorese-push-case-pipe-greater-sunrise-gas-east-timor-2022-09-01/

From 2 months ago,
‘..aiming for terms to be settled by November..’

Could be right though with your end of the year, as suspect that if the TL/Oz partnership were to get derailed (not a big fan of Megan or Oz.gov) then possibly an extended period negotiations till say the end of the year for TL will then want to pay off Woodside’s 34%.

Ideally at 2018 prices as 34% then equates to $395M.
After which TL can announce any possible future partnership.

The recent Oz federal environmental law case, which then saw 18 coal & gas developments brought to a halt, will hopefully be enough incentive to now get Megan fully onboard.

Which imv keeps Chudditch on the burner, till this month’s PSC is addressed. If it all goes sweet then there’s good argument it could be that Chudditch is brought online fist.

There’s recent history though of TL buying out the other players,
$650M for 56%
c.$1 per barrel of contingent resource 2C.
Is the ultimate poker chip to then face down Oz.

Would then give them a clear path to arrange finance with China.

Ohhh & G20 are meeting next door in Bali next week. Lol, just saying..

I think Penny Wong sent him 2 weeks ago at about the same time as TL marked the extra $1.3B from their dwindling slush fund.

Thoughts were that it was one hell of a poker game :
The Oz.gov want regional security
Meg O’Neill wants a southern pipeline
TL want the pipes going north & now have the funds to buy out Meg.
The Oz.gov then need serious sweeteners to keep China out the game.

Down to the last couple of weeks for an agreement on Sunrise PSC.

Was only an extension to the covid measures for another 120 days.

The Australian negotiator pushing the PSC is already on site.

Hi Mickey / Jarv55, hoping you get that TG back up and running, was one of the better forums around. Gets a wee bit boring listening to the repetitive & obnoxious fish wives.

Previous & was $650M for 56% of Sunrise 5T cfg + 226M bbls
Totals of 1.076B boe, for which TL payed $650M for 602M boe

And if TL were to impose similar 2018 buyout parameters ??

Chudditch current best-case contingent of c.5.5T cfg or c.935M boe
75% then gives 701M boe. & at TL’s 2018 prices = $757M

Chudditch1 then an attractive cheap well with its 100% COS

Certainly leaves enough spare cash in the $1.3B additional spending to get that piping laid to the south, should TL deem Chudditch as the quickest option to then raise revenue.

Sunrise best -case contingent now increased from 5T to c.8T cfg + the condensate but for which TL are adamant it will get piped to Beaco.

November was the estimate for putting together a psc:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/timorese-push-case-pipe-greater-sunrise-gas-east-timor-2022-09-01/

‘. The East Timor and Australian governments are in talks to finalise a production sharing contract with the Sunrise joint venture partners, aiming for terms to be settled by November..’

With the still undisclosed additional $1.3B that has recently been added to the TL budget, a possible wild card might be the purchase of Woodside’s 34% ownership of Sunrise.
TL did it twice before when buying out Connoco Phillips & Shell’s combined 56% in 2018 for c.$650M. Connoco then owned Darwin LNG and wanted it piped there but TL refused, so bought them both out.
If Woodside then plays difficult on a psc, the extra $1.3B that TL added to the budget could maybe get used for a final buyout. One hell of a poker hand…

It then means they can go to China for a loan.
UN’s development dept. reckoned upfront costs initially needed are in the region c$7.7B.
TL pick up a loan from China whilst also offering them Woodside’s %.

Should be an interesting month.

As reference : H1 burn c.£450k
Funds as per Interims start of H2 c.£2.3M

H2 burn guesstimate as similar c.£450K
deduct CPR, possibly between c.£500k & £700k
& deduct all or whatever is remaining from £160k bill,
as per maximum quoted for seismic for % increase,

Then supplement +£160k from warrants.

So could still be sitting c.£1.35M to £1.15M
Somewhere perhaps in the region of £1M is a good buffer.

Would disagree with jarvy in then chasing further %
Sitting at c.16% of 100M boe, is not too shabby,
As also incentive for a driller coming onboard for 50%
& for a £7M drill, that c.50Mboe would be v.tempting.

Bloomberg report that Europe has effectively robbed all the available gas from what was previously booked by the developing countries…

“Europe is sucking gas away from other countries whatever the cost…. Suppliers don’t need to focus on securing their LNG to low affordability markets.. the higher prices they can get on the spot market more than make up for whatever penalties they might pay and that dynamic is likely to hold for years..

..European demand for natural gas is expected to surge by nearly 60% through 2026, according to BloombergNEF… Even bids for deliveries starting years into the future are being rejected.”

Talking of wakes.. how’s JR getting on ??

Cringed at the bath tub analogy. Lol

Q4 for the latest seismic interpretations, hence its close,
hence RBD’s possible farm-out perhaps includes Dunrobin.
At £7M a drill & even the old 2D data could suffice at that cheap price,
whilst offsetting a driller’s tax returns.

Management team of only 3 is the other way to look at it…
As is they’ve only been going 4 years, half of which was thru the pandemic,
and now they have the young pretender banging at their door.

Lol, Jarvy, you hate the tories too, on account of ‘lifestyle’ ?!

As per Jarvy’s link & RBD CEO’s mention of 2022 as not yet being finished & of the ongoing farm-out plans for their North Sea assets..

Lot’s of skullduggery from Sattar to try to obtain these.

Some big discrepancies..

From Tatoli:
‘..in 2023 the government allocated US$512M for gender inequality, equivalent to 24% of the total OGE budget..’

From Meeting of the Council of Ministers 4.11.22 :
‘..This OGE proposal for 2023, worth US$3.16B…

So still got an unaccounted c.$1B

Could it have been a spread bet short closing ? It was early Friday prior to the gains, and seemed to coincide with a flurry of buys. Rumour then was that Robbie was buying back in & he’s now got sufficient enough funds to push the sp either way..

Irrespective of wether some Pi’s are bored hearing about it, the wee guy on the rigs, certainly made a pretty penny or two, whilst posting one intent then doing the other.

Budget now in session :

http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=31468&lang=en&n=1

7-9 Nov-----Budget in generality
10-17 Nov—-Budget in specifics, including final global vote
18 Nov------Budget a wee bit more
21 Nov------ Budgeting.
22 Nov-------Budget to the President

& at which point does Horta disclose the reasoning behind the additional $1.3B
An interesting week.

Indeed, exciting enough without needing Herr Phillipps false twitter ramps. The same TG poster who yesterday had Jarvy stamp all over his balls when he tried posting false RNS tomorrow statements. TG today being slightly embarrassed and not even Llyod backing up the Twitter claims.