Golden oldie?! but perhaps The Clash classic might be.. ‘should i stay or should i go now, If i go there will be trouble, If i stay it will be double...’ (Sure that HFB can do some choreography on the lyrics!)
Lol, was waking up the old man after the pub had closed on a Saturday night and then turning up with The Clash rebel album ‘London’s Calling’ and vibrant Mandy with the very loud bright orange Mohican. Good times & good tunes x
Thanks Noob & Cdn., that looks to be some good interesting directions that i can enjoy chasing later....lol but is when i return home as currently out misbehaving... At serious altitude...And unless the bobbies are equipped to handle -20c in the wind chill, i should be having a quiet night! All today & the most relevant piece of information that get circulating around these two wee grey cells of mine, is that awesome Forward PE of 38+ This imo points at the analysts predicting significant oil price increase & possible global ‘stress’ events. Since November, the $ has been plummeting, oil steadily increasing & i suspect they don’t have a lot of confidence in the new US administration handling global stress events. PE 38... Definitely points at POO seeing a surge. Lol, but losing my fingers. Going off line but will catch up tomorrow. Or Sunday. Of maybe next week. Chilling time, literally. Lol.
Cransley., the various PE ratios only give a reference to whether the company’s sp is over or under valued.
Trying to find criteria on what the formula is for ‘forward PE’ which is currently reported to be at a staggering value of 38, is difficult. Only a select group of analysts have access to this & with the selection criteria being rarely published. Think of it in terms of networking, where the forward PE then reflects an exponential growth. It then imo appears that some analysts think similar will happen for oil.
The downside is that all these values and all the analysts are from all across the other side of the pond. These therefore are generally not the people who will be investing other than the lender.
The current ‘normal’ PE is 25, so very close to this morning’s calc’s. I’m guessing that c.1.435p might be a low starting point used by market, prior to the ii’s then taking the lead and maybe following the references given by the American investors for this sector.
Will be news dependent & so our 57% WI, maybe : May 1st & a 25% increase to 1000bopd June 1st & a 40% increase to 1400bopd. ..when the uprated 10mmcfg/d starts to kick in. And at which point, the ii’s will have a feeding frenzy. Imo.
Nice calc’s Noob., had been using similar with estimated data from Dec.1st thru till June 1st (800bopd x $45 netback) tied in with April’s trailing PE (26.13) to try obtain an sp on those 6 months production figures (1.435p).
Two official figures have been given on the netback, CPR at WTI $40 & a quoted $25 netback Feb.presentation WTI $62 & a quoted $44.5 netback, So totally expenditures between $15 & $17.5 (at avg.2mmcf/d injection) Charlie then incorporated the uprated 10mmcf/d injection rates @ $25.
The debt figure given (of $3.4M) will not be applicable from Dec.1st As still in negotiations up until 18 March & its completion of deal. The debt then working to our tax & NAV10 advantage.
Trying to clarify what constitutes the ‘Forward’ metrics in the PE ratio, to determine if this was what AM was aiming at when he used ‘plateau over 7 years’ in his equations.
Googling Forward PE’s then eventually leads to Middle East investors, the link being that any forward PE has then reduced the initial associated debt, with a 33% debt to mc value, being the magic figure. At which point, Islamic investors may partake i.a.w their modern interpretations..
COPL being well below 33% debt when a fundamental Nav10 mc is used, of £176M, then seems to point the way to a Forward PE being utilised in the re-list equations.
Lol, IF one is still allowed to engage said quantum neep, Then thinking that there will initially be two ‘extremes’ in the re-list, That the mm’s first allow the Pi’s to drag it down, That as seen on here, the LLTH’s will again shoot themselves in the foot, And that then there is a positive rapport as the ii’s slowly get onboard.
Of course neither side will get a foot in, If the fleet of news buses suddenly arrive. But.. Without too many buses arriving all at once, Would perhaps suggest that the posting of excessively high calculations has played a part in keeping the LLTHs negativity permanently fermented. We know : (a) the values of the various PE’s from 17 thru to 33, (b) the values of the projected oil plateau figures 7000bopd, being c.4000 @58% (c) how long these projected figures are expected to last for being c.7 years. (d) We know what the current WTI is stabilised at.. c.$60 Shouldn’t be toooo difficult then to come up with a more reasonable approximation for sp and in so doing then perhaps keeping everybody around the bb happy...
Lol, but as seen with his grey matter (his quantum neep) there is still life in the auld dawg yet, Those 2a.m. sudden flashes of inspiration, those eureka light-bulb moments, Those quantum jumps in radicle thinking may indeed have drifted off.. But he’s still more than appily waiting To get his free pass on that no.11 bus.
Would agree that any removal of posts is a dangerous precedent and is not helped by the lack of clarity from LSE.
I would not assume though that there is ‘a select few’ who coordinated the removal of the rather toxic post of late last night’s whine-o’clock, as I suspect it was LSE who then saw it’s removal. It was rather toxic in its suggestion that there was nothing of value being posted & that only those who could post ‘entertaining’ should be allowed to contribute. You can then easily go back 48hrs and also see that some of the alleged ‘select few posters’ have had their posts also removed. Again i suspect it was done by LSE as the poetic ramblings were perhaps not in line with their core value of posting “...$$$$’s...” and it was actually pretty carp with its hidden digs at XLL LTH’s & the values of patience.
I suspect mum, that I’ll be joy-riding when h4b’s predicted ‘should have a bus queue of news flowing’ comes up my street xx