Member Info for dougb189

With respect to offshore Nigeria, I’d disagree Genghis that previously it was a pump & dump, as that suggests there was fraud involved. We may indeed have awful management but that’s not necessarily malicious.

Also IMV two obvious points were not fully understood :
1. that it was corporate suicide taking KK to an English court, then winning that court case and then expecting to go into partnership with the man you’ve just successfully prosecuted.
KK then left Essar high & dry, as expected, which then affected COPL.
2. Small companies do have a track record of operating out of Nigeria but again what was missed and was not mentioned on this bb during those good old times with Abman that you refer to as being ‘profitable’ was the simple fact that at that time, OPEC then instigated massive cutbacks in production. It was effectively a black-swan event in the energy market & therefore not only Nigeria where the small companies suffered, it was global cutback. All the OPEC suppliers then opted to keep their main strategic fields operational & for Nigeria that was then the Bonga FPSO at c.200,000bopd whilst also at that time they were bringing on-line a 2nd deep water field with similar national strategic value again of c.200,000 so Essar/COPL/KK chasing 20,000 bopd was a non-starter at that time.

Would agree with Charlie’84 early morning post where he reckons that OPL could be on the cards again, once we have significant production revenue being generated from Atomic. There was fairly good relationship between COPL & KK, sadly though it no longer included Essar.
It then wouldn’t be too hard too imagine that Essar might seek a quick return on their estimated $70M OPL investment costs on OPL, perhaps say, taking $50M ?

And Lizzie did her O&G apprenticeship operating out of Lagos / Port Harcourt..

Risk perception should cover all eventualities inclusive of the dreaded duster. But occasionally, the sweet spot is hit.

Anyone recollect that link that was posted here c.2 years ago which highlighted that there was a well approximately 3 miles to the north east of us (Big Muddy / Dakota strata ?) that then initially produced at 12,500 bopd for 3 months. As I recall, the pressure was then reported at a rather awesome c.21,000psi (a new NS gas field last year, just east of Aberdeen was recently quoted at c.17,000psi).

Would be v.pleased to see Mr.T’s top end figure of c.800bopd and likewise would be happy to see Harry’s very conservative 100bopd & which quickly covers workover costs.

" Art is playing 4D chess whilst everyone else is getting confused with checkers".

Jun 15th 2020 £600k loan
Jun 23rd 2020 £700k placing
Jun 29th 2020 £500k placing,
immediately following was a quieter month..
Jul 20th 2020 £1.3M placing.

The exact same rushed & ill-thought out consecutive raises was then done in December 2020 with an initial £6M raise then followed a week later by a £3M raise.
A few weeks later was then a £14M book build.

The very last thing AM could be called is a chess player aka competent planner. Each of those ‘subsequent’ raises usually then involved facilitating 1 or 2 close VIP associates.
Lol, but a kid running amok in a sweety shop might be a better analogy for AM’s financial plannings.

The hedge fund’s significant holding is v.beneficial to the Pi’s.

From Filthy’s earlier posted translation of TL Ministers meeting
‘trying to resolve Sunrise’ :

“…Not a great translation?

His Excellency Prime Minister, Taur Matan Ruak, received the audience at the Government Palace in Dili, the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals, Victor da Conçeicão Soares, to present some important issues to be held in 2023 in the Petroleum and Minerals sector.??
Today, we wish you all the best for Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to His Excellency the Prime Minister, and talk about some of the important issues that relating to the Petroleum and Minerals Sector, I think a serious issue in the discussion I cannot speak to the public”, said the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals to journalists after the meeting with the Head of Government.??
The Minister informed in 2023 that there are many issues and concerns, firstly, the Greater Sunrise has brought us to the next five years, and I think we should resolve after Timor Resources we have to resolve the projects of our Mineral Resources, which are currently under the agenda of the Council of Ministers, in order to launch the public sector for our mining industry, in order to stimulate our mindset and to generate alternative revenues for our State.??

“I think this year's hope, although the Government's mandate is nearly finished, this does not prevent our experience of continuing struggle for the Government so that our State, our people, may improve”, the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals, Victor da Conçcão Soares.??

https://www.facebook.com/100044166487510/posts/pfbid032czzVipj4NraMQkKW6ZoZjTXRbz8emKStSAn4xCqqNPHDTuToFy7fQyCZpqoQq7Kl/?d=n

Indeed Fish, So effectively we could have a shareholder with 40.35% at very short notice.

Is then 10% short of what’s needed for director dismissals
But significant enough to hold sway over any decisions requiring shareholder resolutions (25%).

As per earlier it then gives significant confidence to the Pi
and as per LLnP., it currently gives significant confidence to AM.

Its good news all round as the onus is now on AM to perform & it appears that the holder’s confidence is currently there to see this through.

Apologies Mr.T (i was multi-multitasking) but the figures is indeed closer to 41% if it was done today ie before options were called in.
Will try grab a coffee and clarify what Anavio could potentially be holding with respect to current shares in circulation. Apologies once again.

LLnP “..This is a huge commitment from Anavio and demonstrates huge confidence in Arthur to deliver…”

I would rather suggest that this is huge confidence for the Pi,
that if AM fails to sort out the plumbing,
that the group controlling the significant number of shares,
will then bring in a plumber that can.

Mr.T., it appears that you have somewhat allowed your focus to become distorted by all those neigh / nay sayers ?

“…I dont really have much interest in "the bonds, the bonds" detail - it is what it is - has just been a very tedious mantra..”

I might suggest that you try looking at it another way :
Were Anavio to convert all their BH today,
they will then be holding 44%.
Now add in their warrants & you now have a group with >51%

Do you see the picture that is developing ?!
LLT’s numbers ate spot on,
they just need looking at from a different angle.

‘.. Now I know that is a different number to the % quoted above - does it mean 26.9% + 12.2%, and are management options missing ….’

The new total 107M shares equates to 26.9% & resonates with your previous ie Anavio would hold approximately a quarter of all the common shares that are available after a full conversion of their bonds (your yesterday calc’s 403M + today’s 25.268M shares & their 107M equates to 26.9%)

& then drops to 19.9% , approximately one-fifth of all, when the warrants & options are included. I had the suspicion you slightly under estimated the management options, when using only c.30M in your calc, when I suspect it’s closer to 50M options, for their back pay etc.

Is not far removed though from your original estimate of nearly 500M in circulation, but now we are a wee bit north of the figure but not by much. The hedge fund appear very relaxed with process. If anything, I suspect that AM now playing hard-ball will generate the sentiment needed to see sp growth on an ‘exciting’ scale, once the plumbing is all sorted.
AM’s previous Oilexco was all done off the back of a lowly P2 c.76M bbls, and POO similar to current values. The $4B mc was then from 25,000 bopd but the sentiment at that time was chasing the target figure of c.33,000 bopd. Sentiment will play a massive part in future sp and I think today’s ‘hard-ball’ play will soon pay off.

Have to concur but AM seems to have a better grip
specifically on Gaffney, with a raise for only $4M.

Couldn’t work out the Dec.23rd sell, of 1,250,000 (at £189k)
but inputting a block of Bonds into the equation,
gave $200,000 / 1,250,000 and the price of $0.16
the day that the bonds reverted to $0.1583
That small discrepancy imv suggested a big player peeved off
which immediately had one looking at Gafney.
Wasn’t totally unexpected but surprised that AM held restraint
which bodes well for any future sentiment.

Nice write up yesterday by LiveLongnP.,
total shares at c.475M and now increased by 31.5M ?
(always amusing reading MEM’s figures who i suspect is simply laying a false ceiling for mug punters),
It does appear that AM has the main investors on his side with very little recent conversions going on.

Thanks passiton / Ted, hoping you guys get a nice warm Christmas weekend & enjoy that barbie.

Nice summary Tradedesk,
but I believe you have missed another possible due update,
which has imo already played a part in the December sell-off’s,
As per your summary :

‘ The big catalysts are immediately in front now.

Dunrobin - 3D - Dec 22/Jan 23
Chuditch - CPR - Jan 23
Chuditch - Farmout - Jan/Feb 23
Dunrobin - CPR - Late Q1 (March)
Dunrobin - Farmout - Late Q1/Early Q2 (Mar/Apr)’

A possible explanation for the December sell-off could be tied into Greater Sunrise, for which November was then being targeted to complete its PSC.
The somewhat angry retorts by Horta which were given to various media platforms during late November, kinda suggested that this had not been achieved.

That then leaves the Sunrise clock rapidly ticking down from its two decades of inertia, for which Horta must soon reach a breaking point (the next 10 years will possibly be the last active decade for O&G production at majors level) and so either continue with his fruitless discussions with Meg or concede to her demands or buy her out (TL have the funds for this) & then bring in a more amenable 3rd party/consortium (who would then have a more favourable 50% stake in Sunrise with the additional option of increasing that significantly by buying out Chudditch).

It then hinges on the definition of ‘breaking point’ but imo I wouldn’t be too surprised if Horta had already drawn a line in the sand at some forthcoming date, beyond which he then stops these fruitless negotiations. November was the strongly advertised due date for a PSC & I’d suspect that by say the end of the year, if nothing had been concluded, then it will be open season on Sunrise. Any movements on Sunrise would see a massive shift on sentiment for Chudditch.

It Xmas… try Chill old timer,
possibly try & look from a different perspective..
Perhaps apply that ‘10th man protocol’
the one who has to play devil’s advocate,
that the nightmare scenario is indeed true.

The most obvious scenario, bearing in mind it was late Friday
is perhaps it was just another whine o’clock. C’est l’vie.

The other less obvious might be that the poster is wrong,
And hence your summary,
that the sp is Not a reflection of your investment.
How else would you describe the slow accumulation
of a significant amount of stock, where you don’t care what the sp is, you are just more interested in acquiring within certain limits, where the low sp is Not a reflection of your investment but rather the volumes gathered are..

Each to their own but hopefully with a wee bit warmth to fellow Pi’s no matter how banal they might appear.

A quick catch up today of this week’s posts on this bb shows that you have recently taken up ‘green boxing’ several posters that answer you back…
Yet you can still indulge in numerous daily squabbles ??

Just how many posters have you antagonised ?!!

Indeed it was Fish, several of my most recent posts were critical of HFB and specifically the repetitive historical posts and of the swamping of others posts who had tried to put a different perspective of opinion.

There is a difference though Fish in that i am not hypocritical in my posts ie that I don’t criticise a poster for repetition then start to proceed with repetition myself, be it historical repetition or squabbles repetition, the former being HFB’s Achilles herl and the latter being yours..

Lol, ok (guilty as charged?!) but two posts in one week on this bb hardly matches your numerous reps ?!

Very aptly said Chris.,
Then of course we standby for the Fish to post again, as he must always get the last word in.
Exceedingly immature.

Quite amused catching up on the bb throughout today to then read again the repetitive squabbling that the fish surrounds himself with. The amusement being that he had the audacity to have a sly dig at HFB for his repetitive historical posts. Perhaps preferably to the repetitive squabbling. You need to try to grow up Fish, perhaps just try aiming for a modicum of maturity, with all that spare time that you seem to have recently come upon. Retirement ? Lol, you set a fine example of OAP but hey, it’s never too late to learn.

And I agree Fish.
But, there is a concern.
That a dear old departed is perhaps not in full control of faculties.

I am indeed the guy with attitude being extremely rude but it is hoped that the message gets picked up and that the recipient throttles back on these posts that are swamping others that make a determined effort to share their research.

And i fish was alluding to the fact that passion was either a puppet for HFB or one of his log-in aliases for which i know of one other that he uses.
Lol but… There is no apologies for the attitude.

Spartacus was a tactician. He would have been aware of his assets. You are no spartacus.

Two of this bb’s finer assets posted this morning,
The first being Filthy, whose post then immediately saw 2 deja-vu replies.
The second being Riseabovetherest, who then immediately saw his post being swamped by 3 deja-vu replies.

The bb was unanimously tired of the historical reposts that were swamping all others. So why is it happening again…

That deja-vu needs a rest, bud.
A bb full of sycophants does nothing for confidence.

There are some good posters on here.
Allow them to breathe.