Member Info for dougb189

The reported field downtime was from 28th Jan till 30th Jan, so 3 days off-line then perhaps a slow recovery. 12 months ago, when the winter storm hit, was then 6 days off-line which then resulted in c.15% drop in output, from 60k to 50kbbls/month. The following month it recovered 12% to 56k bbls.
Could perhaps see a similar benchmark for January ie. a 10% to 15% reduction, courtesy of the storm. There was though some significant improvements on individual well flow rates in the last field update. Would AM come clean on January production & sadly I suspect not, obtusely preferring to keep the Pi’s in the dark till the very last day of each month.

The gas modifications programme needs serious input, way way beyond what AM can deliver,
which then puts any JV forefront in Pi’s thoughts or as most LTH appear to agree, that a complete buy-out is now the preferred option.

An mc tonight of £16M. Incredible.

Fingers crossed for you Robbie and for us all.
This year is starting to look very exciting.

Similar timescale CDF & that a breakthrough on Sunrise could come at any moment which would generate a huge interest In Chudditch. The CPR will likewise generate big interest particularly from our neighbours.

Is a difficult call Fish for some of us, to give up work or take this on 24/7 but hopefully RB finds the right balance. As per my previous then i was somewhat surprised that someone responsible for commissioning on the rig was somewhat cavalier to the job at hand. So perhaps it might be an easy transition for RB.
The reason i could laugh at his predicament was similar had happened.. a spread bet account had collected lots of good small stocks (inc. 50M BOIL at c.6p) and that the longs were mostly all quickly closed to further decent long purchases. Thought i was good at the maths, but went in too deep on a duster, which did not stop the price falling way way way below the asset values of its other holdings. Always have prioritised work over any trades so although i could see rapid descent happening i wasn’t too fazed by it, which then saw me at one point owing the spread bet shop c.£300k. Thought it was a bad day but still opted to wait till got home for early afternoon. Then found out that the modern legislation means one can’t go to negative equity so the shop had closed all the spreads leaving £0.00 in that account which cheered me up (slightly!) when at home. The disappointment was in losing good quantities of those various holdings in researched small companies which had been acquired at a premium, way before the herd. If one is getting excited on the spreads, one is in too deep.

Would take those posts with a pinch of salt CDF.
Robbie imo is a good guy who got slightly out of his depth & for which he was honest about it.. ‘stuck on a rig with poor broadband & the pf was bouncing up&down in steps of + & - £50k’ and at which point he then pulled the plug, retreating early from his well publicised ‘in for 1p’ & so put a decent couple of £100k profit into his account. The ‘bad boy’ snears then started which now sees a hardening in his outlook. He is similar to yourself that both of you could be read like an open book. Hoping that we do not again see a repeat of his rather frantic posts (allegedly busy on a rig with commissioning work but spends every 10 minutes posting across the media) which simply highlighted he was in too deep on the spreads. Was painful to watch but thankfully a good outcome for him.
Most peeps use TA but more interesting using RA.. retail analysis, & there are already half a dozen or so Pi holdings known to all and sundry. From which target prices can easily be deducted & which will then assist in future trading decisions..

Excuse the wee laugh earlier but i am hoping RB has throttled back. “Monster holding” ?! lol & he does love those spreads.

Lol.

Good article & overview of the resources that TL has got left in the sovereignty fund & of it now being supplemented by only c.$115M/annum from the depleted Bayu field.
$1.6B annual TL spend, so only c.9 years left in the kitty if no further big withdrawals as per this year’s additional $1B allocation into the ‘veterans fund’.

Horta with 2 main options, arrange 3rd party finance for Sunrise or follow through with Gusmao spending the sovereign fund on developing Sunrise field & LNG plant.

Nice figures LLP from the flaring.

The wee flickering candle from the BH worth watching.

Strongest probability for complete package sale might lie with ENI.

They have the Darwin / Barossa commitments which has effectively been grounded for which Chudditch keeps Darwin operating & so gets them out of a tight spot till their new piping access problems from Barossa are resolved.

They also have several big drilling concerns in the UK
in addition to 15 exploratory licenses, 12 of which are being operated.
With their 2021 UK production being 7M bbls oil + 15M boe + 43Bcf gas
then all adds up to a serious tax bill,
which could then be offset against a development rebate.

A wild card perhaps.

https://www.share-talk.com/baron-oil-share-price-one-rns-from-rocketing/

‘..BOIL originally began as a high-risk, highly capital-intensive operation, developing deep-water assets with a propensity to throw up expensive challenges. But in 2021, it pivoted towards snapping up equity interests in lower-risk exploration projects in areas which can be quickly and cheaply monetise…’

Since 2021 & there’s still only a total of two assets as held previous to 2021, and which were then bought whilst the company still operated under the guidance of the original prospectus of ‘developing deep-water assets’ so both these assets were initially acquired with an eye open to ‘high risk, highly capital intensive operations’.

And the only difference since then is an increase in % holding of one of the assets from 2021 & the ceo then saying he wants a quicker turn round.

If he his targeting cheaply & quickly monetisation, what’s the odds on TG repeating their 2018 & 2019 manifesto ?
Hence the £600M benchmark from the 2019 Shell buyout figures.

* by giving 50% to a producer & then retaining 12.5% = 0.9Tcf

12.5% = 0.45Tcf
0.45Tcf / 100 = 4.5B therms x c.70p
£3.15B so still significantly more than if just a quick sale.

Not convinced Mr.S that we will see an outright sale of Chudditch.

Some conservative estimates were recently posted on here,
with using the most recent 3.6Tcf
& shows BOIL with c.£600M for a quick & easy departure.

But, no way will that be what TG want..
walking away with c.£200M for 25%
which will then run TL for just over 1 month.

25% of 3.6Tcf would be far more beneficial to TL
by giving 50% to a producer & then retaining 12.5% = 0.9Tcf
1 therm = 100cf = c.70p (low end) which then gives c.£4.5B from their 12.5%
I can not see them just selling up & relying on the royalties.

Likewise has me looking at the BOIL board.
Complement that with Andy Butler,
& that conservative estimate £600M then looks like a steal.

Possibly the most important RNS’s at the moment are the conversions. From which can extrapolate the time period that the BH are happy to put with AM’s shenanigans. And they are currently in no rush to depart.

Lol hopefully you’ll be needing a harpoon by the time of the next agm

That’s a dark dismal tunnel you find yourself in Stas,
try looking for that wee flickering candle being held by BH

The suspicion was that Europe was having to increase the cap due to limited flows from the States, which could be inline with the majors playing hardball with Biden.

Thought we may have seen some more volatile swings with the US SPR strategic petroleum reserves being at almost 50% of what they held 12 months ago. Apparently they have enough for 4M bbls/day for 60 days. But it is the current high production rates in the States that gives the confidence to go low on their SPR. Suspect that we may again see more volatile swings.

He just needs to get his cheque book out & join the queue ?!

Apologies is a $6M bonus at end of 2025

From the earlier Santos Barossa thread :

‘Santos chief executive Kevin Gallagher will reap a $6 million bonus at the end of 2025 if he can get Barossa and other projects completed.’

There’s reports Pcc., of Darwin having big concern that they will not be able to meet their Asian clients orders after the Bayu-Undan taps are finally switched off (only a few short weeks away) which again puts Chudditch in a prime location. Slightly longer piping required to connect from Chudditch to Bayu c.130km than it would be to connect to Sunrise but still extremely cheap in the scheme of things.

Santos CEO reportedly on a $6M bonus this year IF he can get Barossa & other developments going ie. IF he can keep the Darwin LNG plant running…

Back to the races for Asia regional demand also :

‘.. The European Union is floating a plan to cap the price of Russian diesel at $100 a barrel — a level that might help to stave off the very worst effects of a fuel-imports ban that the bloc will impose on Moscow in just 10 days’ tim…’

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/eu_considers_capping_russian_fuel_prices_at_100-27-jan-2023-171879-article/

Asia will see a reduction in any cheap oil being shipped out of Russia (who were struggling to find oil cargo vessels to meet demand). Looking good peeps.

‘.. The European Union is floating a plan to cap the price of Russian diesel at $100 a barrel — a level that might help to stave off the very worst effects of a fuel-imports ban that the bloc will impose on Moscow in just 10 days’ tim…’

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/eu_considers_capping_russian_fuel_prices_at_100-27-jan-2023-171879-article/

Hopefully the visionary has been to spec-savers.