Member Info for dougb189

Connoco + Shell went for c.$650M ?
which would then value Meg at say c.$450M at similar corresponding rates ?
And Horta currently sitting on that surplus ‘veterans fund’ of $1B.
So his cards are looking good.

The Ozzie deck doesn’t appear to look too good,
with Darwin’s planned Barossa feed effectively scuppered.
& Shell’s FLNG Prelude similarly struggling to stay open on safety issues
(was closed just before Xmas due to a fire incident).
Tied in with Oz.gov’s commitments to a greener manifesto.

I would think TL have the upper hand.

Chudditch tie-in piping c.100km south to pipeline 2 at maybe c.$200M ?
And guessing slightly cheaper if heading north to aSunrise connection.
Attractive to either operator north or south.

Fingers crossed it’s a good meeting.

(I’ll still be singing “she’s a witch, she’s a witch, burn, burn her!”)

Would make v.good sense to tie in Chudditch’s 3.7Tcfg with Sunrise’s 5.3Tcfg.

With almost 10Tcfg that would give a small-mid size nation the energy independence for the next 2 decades.

Totally agree Filthy, that we are tied to them.
Some peeps as per Cloudwatcher’s 10:41 post seem reluctant to look outside the box. C’est l’ ie.

I’d disagree passion/HFB, that the TL players have been playing double standards as they have always sought the plant. I also have my suspicions that China may be v.interested But would not want to see the two old geezers still running the show.

Suspect that this week we may see TL chase a confirmed pledge & failing which, perhaps an international tribune ?

Thanks Filthy., that validates the arguments that were posted on here that the wicked witch Meg of Woodside.Oz, was only ever playing with Timor Gap.

As suggested after the November budget, Timor Leste have sufficient funds to buy them out. And from reading your article it suggests imv that TL have a partner in waiting, IF Meg still plays around.

Should be an exciting month.

Lol but that triggers my ‘conspiracy theories’ alert,
or more accurately, has me pondering who might use it.
A good list for a buy-out but perhaps not so, for a rerate:

1. Last exercise then gave avg. prediction c.£1.30 (‘ish?)
from a comprehensive number of inputs + calculations
2. The MM’s then opened at 50% c.64p
3. Hadron then dumped.

2&3 each had to input a ‘premium’ evaluation on RTO calc’s
& both put serious negative premium on the name ‘AM’
MM’s were perhaps following the lead of the FCA,
where the original estimated time for the RTO was then greatly extended with numerous reports of ‘further paperwork being required’ ie they inadvertently put a huge negative premium on the name AM.
AM then later reported of a huge leveraged spread bet that was vacating, which may or may not have been influenced by Makammick’s fairly comprehensive list..

& If AM don’t pull his finger out & work on communications,
the hedge fund will likewise have to set value on any premium, should a rerate equation arise.

Lets see what the next 2 weeks bring.

Fingers crossed & it all goes well bud.

Successful ‘retirement’ should then see less toxicity.
& guessing that a 10% slice off the table should alleviate that mid-life crisis with a top of the range Tesla (as seen driven by a majority of crisis driven geezers).
& do Not get the Jag, their F Type R was allergic to ice & so took off dancing thru the trees. That was serious bruising. Lol

Lol, & at what point did the trading turn bitter-sweet for you john ?

To put that historical ‘trading’ into context

Sep 15th 2021 ‘holding 46M’ [0.368p therefore £169k]
Nov 18th 2021 ‘£194k in here’ [21.75p therefore 892,000 share post the reverse split of 100:1 or 89M in old money].

That initial 46M at £169k was then worth £100,050 by Nov 18th..

The rest of us were at that time feeling rather ‘physically bruised’ & so easily recoverable,
whilst your rather toxic posts highlight a lot of ‘mentally bruised’.

Seriously bud, you need to try chill.
Go buy yourself a Tesla & alleviate that late-mid-life crisis..

Fill your boots bud.
Those figures do kind of speak for themselves.
(I made up the insanity equation but it is strange how the metrics seemingly match)

Was worth a closer look & it only cost 10 minutes but the bb does seem to suffering from some quite toxic self-congratulatory posts.
And the old grey memory cells could vaguely recall a slightly different set of events to that which John tries to paint.

Late 2021 & there was several posts of which the most prominent was that the holding of £194k worth of Copl which was remembered, as was v.close to someone else’s significant figure & at that time the someone else was feeling somewhat ‘bruised’, courtesy of AM’s most recent shenanigans of the previous month’s 2 weeks forward selling from mid October thru till the 1st Nov RNS for an £8M placing (placing number 5 that year). I had then thought it was rather silly for anyone to be advertising such holdings.

The hazy memory cells though needed refreshing & so after 10min read :
Aug 23rd 2021 ‘buying at 0.35p’
Sep 15th 2021 ‘holding 46M’ [0.368p therefore £169k]
Nov 18th 2021 ‘£194k in here’ [21.75p therefore 892,000 share post the reverse split of 100:1 or 89M in old money].

That’s rather impressive buying in 2021 :
Sept. 46M at 36.8p (100:1) and THEN continuing to buy another 43M
all the way down to 21.75p

Now I think I understand better where all the toxicity towards all things Copl comes from.

Q. Is there a toxicity equation in there somewhere ?
aka General Theory of Sanity : e = m.c(squared)
emotional quotient = % mugged x % conned (squared)
& As can be seen the poster does have a rather large EQ.

“…FFS…” she whispered quietly to herself wondering if the old man had any marbles left at all.

* RS originally reported as possible ie 5000 bopd at the end of 2022.

“So if all gose well we could be looking at around 100,000 bpm by April/May,.”

Nice figure but it still perhaps falls short for a decent sp reaction. It still falls within the original estimates (albeit now it is unhedged & the 2023 poo looking v.promising).

100,000 bpm / 3300 bopd is still slightly less than 50% of the field prospectus, mid 2021 where AM’s in-house estimate had reckoned by end of 2022 we could be chasing 7000 bopd (40% greater than the original RS analysis) and which was posted way before the field was hugely upgraded.

Likewise returning 200bopd/well will see a warm reaction :
x6 and that then puts the bopd at 50% of what RS originally reported as possible ie 5000 bopd at the end of 2020.

To try get above that earlier estimated 50p imv the punters are going to want to see a well capable of entertaining a flow rate that then knocks the original prospectus into the shade. IF the figures don’t impress then peeps will be asking further on the validity of the CPR assessor.

Mr.T’s lower range figure c.400 bopd recovery well x6, plus a good horizontal result (2000 - 3000bopd?) plus all unhedged, should hopefully then see a very exciting sp with the latest RS analysis then being pushed. Should be an interesting month.

LiveLong., that’s the main question arising, how do Anavio play it ?
In addition to perhaps some/any drilling updates.

37% of ~500M shares would be v.difficult to sell off.
The Pi’s are astute, they’ll pick up on bad news quickly.
So that suggests your B.. a possible client/s.

Still plausible though that hedge fund will take an active interest via A.
For which I’d guess keep 29% (1% below any possible buy-out clauses)
& perhaps selling 8% ?
Approx 40M shares so requiring 32 securities. At what price?

Imv, IF all goes well, initially, then could see the MM’s quickly taking this to 50p
which would then cover them from an mc of c.£140M up to £250M
the latter being if there was a massive conversion, ie. there was ~500M shares.
It would give the MM’s breathing space till the dust settles.

Call it 52.15p & you then have £400k profit on each security (£/$ c.1.21)
x32 securities then giving c.£12.8M profit.
Sell off your 55.160M warrants converted at 16.75, gives additional £1.952M
So then v.close to breaking even on purchase price of the remaining bonds.
And you still retain 29% for either B or A.

How to get to c.50p ?
And would require some good results on those initial wells, so close to Mr.T’s figures.
Which currently is what the Bond holders all appear to be waiting on.

“… the real issue is Art himself and whether he can be trusted…”
No one with more than 5 minutes experience of following AM, trusts him.
Perhaps use that to your advantage.

Then ask, why are the Bond Holders sitting on 100+ bonds,
when each of these bond securities is currently worth £45.48k profit ?

He may indeed have a schyte personality on a par say with BJ
But similarly he does just occasionally, bring home the bacon,
ie. he too previously only entertained the big plays.

100% agree on getting fresh blood on the board either thru JV or a significant bond holder. Financial ‘planning’ has clearly seen to be poorly planned, whilst he doesn’t care who he stomps on, be it Pi’s, ii’s or hedge funds.

His chess game is all about the mc [& it’s 10% options packages] whilst the rest of us are tied to a totally different chess game, playing for sp. The bond holders are generally holding though & so then suggests a step-change, a re-rate, which will then improve both the mc & the sp.

The light at the end of the tunnel is currently that flickering candle that is being held by the biggest bond holder. Use it.

The US awakening to their depleted national & energy security levels :

Rigzone 13.01.23

A new bill prohibiting the sale and export of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to China has passed the U.S. House of Representatives..
..Dubbed H.R.22 - Protecting America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act, the bill still needs to pass the senate and go to the president to become law..
..The H.R.22 - Protecting America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act bill specifically prohibits the Department of Energy (DOE) from selling petroleum products from the SPR to any entity that is under the ownership, control, or influence of the Chinese Communist Party. According to the bill, the DOE must require as a condition of any sale of crude oil from the SPR that the oil not be exported to China.

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who sponsored H.R.22, applauded its passage..“America’s SPR, once the world’s largest stockpile, has been depleted to the lowest levels since 1983,” Rodgers said in the statement.
“To date, President Biden has released more from the SPR than all U.S. presidents in history combined. Millions of barrels of that oil have gone to China, which now has the world’s largest government-controlled stockpile of oil,” Rodgers added.
“Draining our strategic reserves for political purposes and selling it to China is a significant threat to our national and energy security. This must be stopped, which is why I’m proud to join my Republican colleagues in passing H.R. 22, one of the most bipartisan votes on an energy bill in many years and multiple Congresses. There’s more to come. This is just the beginning,” Rodgers added in the statement.

The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, according to the DOE’s website, which notes that the SPR was established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the U.S. under the international energy program.
Back in November 2022, the DOE announced that contracts had been awarded for the purchase of crude oil from the SPR following a notice of sale announced on October 18. These contract awards completed Biden’s announcement on March 31 to release 180 million barrels of crude oil “to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Putin’s war on Ukraine, act as a wartime bridge for domestic production to increase, and aid in lowering energy costs for American families”, the DOE noted at the time.

China will be looking for alternatives,
& they do recently appear to be focusing closer to home :

Rigzone 13.01.23

A new bill prohibiting the sale and export of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to China has passed the U.S. House of Representatives..
..Dubbed H.R.22 - Protecting America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act, the bill still needs to pass the senate and go to the president to become law..
..The H.R.22 - Protecting America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act bill specifically prohibits the Department of Energy (DOE) from selling petroleum products from the SPR to any entity that is under the ownership, control, or influence of the Chinese Communist Party.
According to the bill, the DOE must require as a condition of any sale of crude oil from the SPR that the oil not be exported to China.

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who sponsored H.R.22, applauded its passage..“America’s SPR, once the world’s largest stockpile, has been depleted to the lowest levels since 1983,” Rodgers said in the statement.
“To date, President Biden has released more from the SPR than all U.S. presidents in history combined. Millions of barrels of that oil have gone to China, which now has the world’s largest government-controlled stockpile of oil,” Rodgers added.
“Draining our strategic reserves for political purposes and selling it to China is a significant threat to our national and energy security. This must be stopped, which is why I’m proud to join my Republican colleagues in passing H.R. 22, one of the most bipartisan votes on an energy bill in many years and multiple Congresses. There’s more to come. This is just the beginning,” Rodgers added in the statement.

The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, according to the DOE’s website, which notes that the SPR was established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the U.S. under the international energy program.
Back in November 2022, the DOE announced that contracts had been awarded for the purchase of crude oil from the SPR following a notice of sale announced on October 18. These contract awards completed Biden’s announcement on March 31 to release 180 million barrels of crude oil “to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Putin’s war on Ukraine, act as a wartime bridge for domestic production to increase, and aid in lowering energy costs for American families”, the DOE noted at the time.

Some great points Mr.T.,
There is though another aspect of a ‘rerate context’
that was perhaps missed.

To put some perspective, at this morning’s earlier mid-price of 16.15p
that was 4p profit on each share in the bonds.
& on each bond security that works out at v.close to £50k
on an initial investment of c.£153k for each security. At today’s prices.
[($0.1583 x119%) x 78%] x £/$ (c.1.21) = c.12.15p x 1,263,423/per bond.

And in today’s market how many ii’s do we know of, that would still hold out on a fairly significant 33% return ? With 9 holders for the bonds then would at least expect someone to then cash in one or two, paying off their Xmas bills or their electrical bills but so far there has been ‘prolonged silence’ with all of them generally holding. And if today’s profits are approximately £50k on each security that then strongly suggests they still all believe there is a significant rerate coming ?

Was only quickly in & out the bb at that time but noticed there was no comment on the OPEC global cutbacks. Was quite a few mug punters just looking for an easy ride without doing any background checks. I sold up quite quickly but a couple of years later and the wake-up alarms went off when this hit rock-bottom in early 2020. Lol, but often wishing I had just slept through. Hopefully this time and IF all goes well with Atomic we can re look at that field again from a better vantage point. It had significant potential.