Member Info for dougb189

A 4 year projection would emphasise the rapidly emptying pot fund.
Originally was a $1.3B discrepancy between this year’s budget financing & next year’s budget financing but that has been reduced to a discrepancy of $1B presumably because the NGO reckon there is a c.15% increase on this year’s figures.
And are asking what the additional funds are for.

Project that calcs over 4 years & they’ll sadly soon all in TL will be below the poverty line. Horta will have to step up.

The report by NGO reads as if they want another x years funding to be spent on obtaining yet further independent reports.
Reckon that Horta will make a decisive decision.
Interesting week.

The NGO’s querying that extra $1B.
Any serious roads/ hospitals infrastructure expenditures in Asia / Africa are then generally covered by China. Horta & Guasmo don’t do lavish spending.
TL.gov will then have the clock ticking down, for when a response is due.
Interesting week.

‘Highly unlikely’. Cheers bud.

Lol, was brokered in Astral’s head today at 10:11
Original thinking though, outside the box.

Interesting to see what hfb makes of it.
TL’s current 25% stake would be diluted, say 50%,
taking TL down to 12.5% if a major takes control.
TL may perhaps be looking at using that unexplained $1.3B withdrawal from their pot fund for purchasing the infrastructure / FLNG & so gaining some extra % from BOIL.
Then bringing in a producer at a lower % to manage ops ?
Woodside then fulfill their obligations to TL &/or gov.Oz

Fingers crossed we get to see some fireworks soon.

Guessing that HFB still recovering from a wild Saturday night in Oz.
Reckoned he might have more input on Astral’s ‘Sundagas takeover by TL’.

I didn’t rate it too much as Sundagas has a V.good relationship with TL.
Initial thought when HFB mentioned that TL have taken $1.3B out their pot fund
Was that they may be looking at a cheap FLNG, for Chudditch.
The cheapest was then reckoned to be available for c.$700M.
It would favourably alter the dynamics of TL’s % in Chudditch
Perhaps going from 25% to 50%.
But guessing that it would also be more favourable for BOIL,
As apposed to say farm-out to a major for 50%, then leaving us 37.5%

The one figure that is not given by the BP report is that of the Philippines.

Both the Philippines & Indonesia were marked by a a Bloomberg report as needing significant new energy sources and that gas was the quickest energy asset available to install from scratch, ie. coal, oil or nuclear power stations all require substantially more lead-in times.

Time & logical restraints are perhaps best analysed via current energy consumption requirements. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 then highlights each nation’s requirements.
The consumption figures used are in Exajoules which roughly equate as
1 Exajoule = 174M boe.

Also shows the % of energy produced by coal,
China total energy consumption 157.65 EJ & for which coal is used for 54.6% of all their energy needs (all those solar panels, EV vehicles, all made from coal).
India uses coal for 56.7% their total energy use
Indonesia at 39.5%
Japan at 27%
UK at 2.9% and are again talking about new mining at Cambria.

It then gives a good write up on renewable energy. It is coming but very slowly.
BOIL’s assets are well within the current time & logistics restraints, which puts Asia looking at ending coal production by c.2075

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf

Biden wants to stop the export of US oil & gas, which is primarily destined for Europe.
He’s just worried as no American President has ever been re-elected when the forecourt prices are greater than $4 gallon. Now sitting at $5 / gallon.

This is then on top of OPEC following Russia’s lead and cutting back on production.

Then makes O&G a very valuable commodity.

For the immediate future then take a look at the global temperature charts: inc. Madrid 9c & Berlin 8c, so looking like everyone needing the heating on early.

Bloomberg reporting that the oil & gas majors are seriously peeved at Biden.
He initially threatened to try close them down and now he’s asking why they are not developing more refineries & infrastructure.
Biden also asking why they are exporting when the national reserves are running low.

Everything seems to be aligning nicely for shareholders.

Reckon Santos might step up also, their Barossa will be getting deeper & deeper into their environmental quagmire. Santos would only need to lay some additional plumbing on the TL side of the maritime boundary to enable Chudditch.

Chudditch revenues would then set up TL with funding to develop Sunrise plumbing across to Beaco.

Woodside might then be left with a redundant FLNG..

Looks as if there may be a possible hiccup in Woodside’s planned new Australian gas developments. The Oz Minister yesterday put 18 coal & gas developments on hold whilst waiting on environmental reports.

Does look as if Woodside’s recently announced JV with Japan for a new FLNG vessel has two out of the possible three destinations that were being targeted, now put on hold, whilst their remaining choice of destination, Greater Sunrise, then falls under Timor Leste’s more amenable jurisdiction.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/coal-projects-reassessed-after-legal-bid/101617118

From below & viewed as stationary, but when looking from above i’m initially guessing that the quoted wobble was from a byproduct of the planet’s tilt, precession & orbital cycles. Then suspecting that there may be a diurnal effect, primarily from the daily hot / cold cycles..

‘breaking things’ sounds like reverse-engineering… which then sounds like you were a corporate spy… lol, so 007. H.F.Bond ?

That’s v.interesting figures Jarv., I thought the previous 50p/therm was ambitious:

‘..During the sale process, it was announced that Corallian had entered a period of exclusivity on 4 May 2022 when gas prices were at 156.17 p/t. On 31 August 2022, the exclusivity period with Shell ended and gas prices were near record highs of 627.43 p/t, 3x higher over less than a four-month period. We believe that Corallian should, at this point, have re-opened the process to other bidders to achieve a higher sale price, as the underlying market dynamics had changed and the agreed sale price was sub-optimal..’

Utilising these new figures then can perhaps understand why there are very big efforts to sway shareholders & ultimately to acquire these licenses.

To start with I’d set my targets a lot lower.

Taking the lowest comparison figure from Victory Field / Chudditch,
I’d go in at say 50%,
Then £893M / 2 which gives c.£450M / 14,450M OS
So, 3.0p as a low reference,
but would then be daily influenced ‘heavily spiked’ by retail’s c.15,000 traders,
As per the Alaskan North Slope’s 88e. And similar to that experience you’d need to know where the limits were ie 88 was a very good sell at 3p after having loaded up £150k thru the 2015 winter at c.0.5p.

Many variables, but keep it cool.

You could try input the Victory Field gas figures, for 179Bcf recoverable gas (mid-case) as per CPR. Which then sold to Shell for £32M.

Using our “conservative” Chudditch estimate c.5T cfg & inputting the above,
Then gives £893M…

The RBD shareholders are though quite peeved as the original 179Bcfg estimate,
When using an historical benchmark of 50p/therm,
Then had Corallian estimating an ‘economic value of £146M to £193M’.
(Then puts Chudditch at c.£4.08B to £5.39B)

The Victory Field though was perhaps too small for an independent
& additionally required 10 miles of piping to connect to Total’s infrastructure.
Was perhaps why Shell were able to come in with a cheeky bid.
Chudditch’s size though approaches a strategic level, that would supply a small nation’s energy independence for the best part of 20 years.

Would be more than happy with the lower figure.

RBD response:
‘The £32m gross (£12.7m net to Reabold) value of Corallian is a part of the return on the £7.5m invested across Corallian’s previously held seven assets of which Reabold retains six (which certain of the Requisitioning Shareholders tried to buy to the detriment of all other Reabold Shareholders). Reinvestment of some of the net sale proceeds will enable the Company to progress its strategy and assets to generate even greater returns. The Company successfully monetised its investment in Corallian and intends to continue to follow its strategy to facilitate additional profitable exits and distributions to Shareholders.

The Requisitioning Shareholders attempted to prevent Reabold retaining ownership of the six non-Victory Corallian licences and even attempted to circumvent Reabold acquiring these assets by offering £500,000 (a 100% premium to the acquisition price achieved by your Board) to Corallian for the assets.’

Lots of skullduggery then from the RBD Requisition Shareholders led by Kamran Sattar ceo of Portillion Capital.
Did Cathal Freill, the successful O&G ex company boss, assist or take part as one of those Requisition Shareholders who were offering a 100% premium for those 6 non-Victory Corallian licences, that includes Dunrobin ?

Would then be extremely beneficial to the RBD bod for an update by BOIL on Dunrobin’s 3D analysis (is due this quarter) but what’s the odds of that happening before Tuesday’s meeting of RBD v Sattar/Freill.

Suspecting though that the long suffering investors will stick with the bod, on account of Sattar’s several attempts to enhance his own company interests rather than All the RBD shareholders. Which then means there’s £4M less in the RBD pot-fund (which they are giving back to the shareholders) but still reckon they will have c.£18M. Not too shabby, and easily covers a potential £7M drill in the shallow Moray Firth.

1. Vaguely remember somik about lots thrust = take-off ?!
& 17,000+mph then sees you vacating the planet.
2. Sat in a swivel office-chair + holding spinning’wheel’
& then somik about precession…you cant turn the spinning wheel but you turn on the swivel chair?

So is with or without the Coriolis effect in a geostationary orbit ?

Would agree with Shouston & hopefully RB has chilled & acquired again.
Lol, but he’s banned from any posting. There’s only so much ramps allowed.

After the ‘large E&P’ were involved, BOIL then doubled their holdings.