Member Info for dougb189

Indeed some quite funny (bitter-sweet) comments inclusive ‘mum of 3’, ‘tax the rich’ & ‘cancel funding for space projects’. No one ever acknowledges that our vast numbers are the problem.
‘Energy accountability’ and now get those western schmucks to ask the Chinese to throttle back on their annual consumption of 86.17 Exajoules just from coal (1 Exajoule = c.176M B.O.E) out of a total of 157.65 Exajoules that they consumed for the last year.

Going by the last couple of months of diplomatic efforts by TL then suspecting that within perhaps the next month or so that TL will be looking for a confirmed agreement on any Greater Sunrise PSC.
The west now appears to have recognised its folly in severely curtailing O&G developments in the pursuit of renewables with most now renewing/seeking 20 year term O&G contracts.
Makes sense for the tiered approach as you say bud, to meet the supply requirements for the proposed 2025 gas power plants, perhaps with Chudditch at the forefront. Is looking v.good.

Will concede bud that the mapping shows all of TL’s extended maritime boundaries, but the wording implicates a different scenario :

“… The proposed Sunrise project in the Timor Sea is operated by Woodside but 57 per cent owned by the East Timor government…”

And as we all know, Chudditch area is only 25% owned by TL, ie. out-with of the above.

https://archive.ph/RPIJE

‘…A confidential report prepared for East Timor’s government advises that the stalled Greater Sunrise gas project to be operated by Woodside Petroleum in waters north of Australia can be built and run at a similar cost in East Timor, instead of Darwin.
The report’s findings clash with a previous published estimate suggesting that the LNG project construction cost would be twice as expensive, or more than $US10 billion ($14.3 billion) extra, to pipe the gas from the Timor Sea to East Timor and build the processing plant on its southern coastline.
In addition to the similar upfront capital expenditure costs, the new 130-plus page report estimates the ongoing multi-decade operating expenses for labou and other expenses would be cheaper in East Timor.
.. Updated project costings by independent energy consulting group ERCE estimate that the total capital expenditure for the LNG project construction would be $US11.8 billion in Darwin and $US14.1 billion in East Timor, according to the report finalised for the Timor Gap entity in July 2021.
The $US2.3 billion cost differential calculated last year for construction is a fraction of the original $US10.3 billion difference ($US20.5 billion in East Timor versus $US10.2 billion in Darwin) based on studies and engineering work completed in 2015…’

Throw in some regional security issues in addition to ongoing national energy security issues for any aspiring players, then TL’s ambitious plans don’t look too radical after all.

Excuse the pun but with the ongoing political machinations,
is starting to sound like Black Ops will then be running TL.

A gov sponsored O&G perhaps and with CNOOC the biggest player directly linked to any homeland politics (its primary function not being tied into the making of profits..).
Would be reasonable to say that Oz.gov were led by the nose from Woodside with respect to the spying of TL meetings as the Oz.gov don’t seem to have much stomach for regional security issues but rather it appears as if it was a commercial issue. As personified by the current Woodside CEO.

Will be interesting to see who comes out front.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ikebrannon/2022/09/21/a-country-youve-never-heard-of-is-sitting-on-a-massive-offshore-field-that-can-replace-russian-gas/

‘The current price of $51/btu is an order of magnitude higher than the prices just two years ago, and double the gas price it traded at in May.
The sky-high prices have incentivized investment in natural gas production across the globe, and the hope is that new supply reserves and demand destruction could stabilize the market at a price closer to historical norms sooner rather than later.
One country that may soon join the natural gas market in a major way and help alleviate high prices is East Timor, also known as Timor-Leste..

..Conservative estimates put the size of that field at more than 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, but some experts believe the subsea geology is such that the actual number could be 10 times that. The country is anxious to develop this field; the current government aspires to create something akin to Norway’s wealth fund in order to help fund development projects and other services for its population. Given the size of the field and the country’s population, such a fund could one day generate a per-capita revenue stream for its population that rivals Norway.
Timor-Leste’s government—and its natural oil company—are aggressively seeking partners to help develop these fields….’

From charlie TG:
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/britain-seeks-us-gas-deals-to-tackle-long-term-supply-crunch/47920806?utm_campaign=teaser-in-querylist&utm_medium=display&utm_content=o&utm_source=swissinfoch

Britain Seeks US Gas Deals to Tackle Long-Term Supply Crunch

This content was published on September 22, 2022 - 09:26 September 22, 2022 - 09:26
(Bloomberg) -- The UK is trying to secure long-term supplies of liquefied natural gas from US producers as high energy prices across Europe threaten the economy far beyond just this winter.

The government’s energy supply task force is seeking proposals from LNG exporters to supply domestic buyers under deals lasting as long as 20 years, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the talks are private. The task force is being led by Madelaine McTernan

Additional simmering..
From the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022:
China currently using coal for 54.66% of its total energy consumption,
India using coal for 56.7% its total energy consumption,
& Japan at 27% from coal.
All of who were spooked when Indonesia banned all coal exports in January.

A nice wee read on LNG futures..
Asia struggling to secure supplies;
Singapore Korea & Japan struggling to source alternative fuels.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/asian_lng_buyers_cannot_compete_with_european_demand-16-sep-2022-170396-article/

Nice calcs Tico., with perhaps some scope for significant uplift :
The initial results of the 3D PSDM gives an increased aggregate GIIP c.4.5TCF
so a possible 50% increase on your conservative figure of 3.15TCF.
Andy has then reckoned that ‘the c.4.5TCF is conservative’.

Europe led by Germany now re-engaging in 20 year contracts and Oz has offered to supply on those, so guessing that any renewed brokers evaluations might move away from financials tied to the JKM LNG spot price (which is c.$40+ /1000cf which was then estimated to cost $8 to produce).

There also still appears to be a credit facility available of $25M from a Singapore bank which was drafted in 2019, at the same time as the template for the current proceedings was put in place ie. a JV by Q4 2022 & 2 drills by 2023.
That then suggests strong confidence and so I’m kinda thinking that your ‘factoring in a 95% drop down’ is also a wee bit….conservative.
The 7.5p calculated though, still makes for Very pleasant reading.

MOU between Sundagas & Dili Institute of Technology (DIT) and attended by UK Consulate rep (primarily a visa office but also the UK.gov rep on site) appears to be a nice leaning towards enhanced O&G training for the college and perhaps offering UK tickets for O&G training. Some nice confidence building. Hopefully further info coming.

The article is written by the blog site called ‘NewVolcano’ and they are only calling it minor tremors. The area is not far removed from the Ring Of Fire, which has been slowly evolving for about a billion odd years or so. Is why i think Andrew wanted to opt for floating production with its associated Flexy tubing.

Off topic & for those wanting a lesson in shorts then the Naked Trader’s blog shows that Robbie has been putting £10 a point every couple of months over the last year on AML. The total now at £50/point. He 1st started last September with sp at £19.00+ & today saw AML drop massively down thru £1.70. A v.cool £50k for RB.

Assuming that ‘1967’ refers to a vertical displacement in millimetres and you still fall far short of hfb. Figures though that 1967 was simply a reference to the time displacement and again you fall far short of hfb by several decades. The noticeable difference being though that whilst you are both flagged for being in the golden zone for senilty it is only yourself that exudes the most worrying symptoms.
At least hfb recognises his physical frailty & hence his last walk-about but what he still has in aces, is his memory of the pertinent data & his ability to wrap it up, Jackanory style.
As apposed to an auld bitter approach.

Just….. classic. Stage performances just as powerful as the orchestrated official recorded version.

Gasmaggedon will then see the Brits boasting of cold showers. Lol.

read the beeb article ‘EU clubs together on energy and invites the UK’.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62822368

Lol, but that was the original concept when the UK joined the EEC 49 years ago in pursuit of the goals at that time as led by the EEC ‘European Economic Community’ prior to it then getting hijacked in the pursuit of a totalitarian state aka the EU.

As a staunch brexiteer was always aware that the changing demographics would soon have us back into the EU within a decade or so (was primarily the auld geezers vote to stick 2 fingers up at EU) but that these 10 years might then see a more harmonious partnership develop, hopefully along the lines of the original concept of the EEC ie. a common financial market only, & with UK keeping its sovereignty. Now looks as if the EU want to welcome us back. Hopefully BOIL will be there to assist in their energy requirements.

Thought the video was merely the catalyst; that peeps were initially following Horta’s meetings & announcements which are looking v.promising and were perhaps yesterday’s main driving force (a 50% increase of a product unable to be accessed is reminiscent of an oil play in Wyoming which resulted in 0% benefits). As punters picked up on the news developments inc. security cooperation & the real possibility that a resolution might be found (TL need the funds) & so the release of the video was a catalyst, it accelerated the turnover volume of equity.
Seeing the grapth interpretations slide 13 of the Tcf sizes of the various fields & showing Chudditch as being not far removed in size from Sunrise, Barossa & Bayu Undan then added additional sentiment. It felt good topping up. Should be a very interesting couple of weeks.

That may explain why the survey vessel Ocean Researcher is currently positioned at the top of Block 18 doing lots of set patterns up & down ???

I suspect that Chudditch may yet see a FLNG (if the current discussions go sour) which then gives TL access to short term revenues but they are quite adamant that Sunrise LNG production will be done onshore.

Reckoning that with the current strength of the asian LNG that any JV (by Q4) might then see better terms than the quoted 50% retentions by BOIL (37.5% Chudditch). The earlier mentioned ‘evaluation reduction if delivery takes 20 years’ then hopefully sees a big spender with multiple rigs bringing the field life down by half. The initial well comes with its 100% COS courtesy of Shell which may give better jv terms.

‘ The Allenby note assumes the project may sell for >$5/boe post a feasibility study.’
This was calculated from a JKM LNG benchmark of c.$15/Mbtu but which is now around $55/Mbtu (&is outwith the winter requirements or full Chinese production capacity with several cities closed for covid).
Likewise there is a reported conservative 50% increase from 3T to 4.5T field estimate.
JR’s 10p doesn’t seem that far fetched ?!
An updated presentation will hopefully shed some clearer light.

TL’s old fox Horta, laying it thick onto the Ozzies:
Dili could become the next Dubai.
Also offering security partnership which would then see TL paying its own way, if the gas goes north.

2023: $45 v $380

“… JPMorgan Chase analysts warn global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if Russia were to retaliate against the sanctions imposed by the G7 countries by cutting its crude oil output.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Citigroup is signaling crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of the year and possibly even slump to $45 by the end of 2023, if a recession brings on a destruction in the demand for energy.”

Imv, its going to get a lot nastier inclusive of Europe & possible water supply problems. Means we’ll be building up strategically, which imv puts the top end oil pricing on the cards.