Member Info for dougb189

Bloomberg reporting that Japan has asked the US & Australia for LNG supplies, courtesy of Putin playing awkward on his Sakhalin LNG terminal, putting at risk Japan’s energy security. Hopefully Santos’s Darwin facility will again be actively looking for additional fields.

Thanks also Shouston/Eddie on the feedback.
‘bullish’ from the board is nice to hear.
Appreciated, guys.

Qatar’s ‘long term’ deals previously saw most European outfits shy away,
ENI now onboard, for 27 years.
Butterflies are all taking off but Yeo still hiding in the bushes.

Bloomberg reporting that our European cousins starting to get v.concerned on having sufficient gas supplies to get thru next winter. Russia reduced the output flows last week & two of the largest consumers, Germany & Italy, both now looking at restricting their gas usage to try conserve stocks.

Germany looking at restarting their moth-balled coal-fired power plants.

Italy’s ENI will hopefully be taking the lead in our neighbouring field…

Enjoy your walk about bud, take good care.

There is another ‘play’ Al., which still sees some revenue & benefits going into TL after the Bayu-Undan reserves have been depleted and that is that Santos & SK ES are then going to be utilising it for carbon capture storage. Albeit a fraction of the revenue that O&G brings in.

Asia reckoned to be the hotspot for carbon storage, primarily as there’s loads of cheap offshore experience tied into good detailed surveys. Key driver is apparently the corporates ESG decarbonisation policies with BP & Repsol now involved with CCSU projects in Indonesia which then gives them allowances which are offset against any new upstream developments (a bit like Scotland’s current predicament where land prices have gone thru the roof courtesy of companies planting zillions of wee trees to then claim carbon neutral status).

China currently the only country in Asia imposing penalties for emitting CO2 but it is reckoned that both South Korea & Japan will prioritise LNG & gas exporters that have low carbon footprints in their production.

Santos & SK ES then developing Bayu-Undan as a CCS then possibly puts an edge on Chuditch O&G being piped to Darwin, as it puts a better long-term environmental perspective on the field, which might then be enough to placate the two TL head honchos..

Or of course, China may just walk in and develop the whole lot.

China assist: Dar es Sallam 542km pipeline, benefited Tanzania.
China assist : Uganda 1445km pipeline, again benefited locals.

Would certainly benefit TL if Beaco was developed as per the original ambition, of the locals then getting decent wages.

That then benefits China two-fold ; with (1) a small population then getting lifted out of poverty, the neighbouring countries are going to sit up & take notice giving v.good PR to the PRC, & (2) that extra wealth then gets spent : currently $200M/year imports from China, by a TL population of just 1M, & of whom 42% are currently in poverty.

IF following Malaysia’s weak leadership & billions are squandered on motorways that stop in the middle of the jungle, or of bridges & flyovers with no roads attached or of shipping ports that have no traffic then sure, the BRI will be a very expensive outlay.

Then comes down to leadership & TL’s two main geezers don’t appear to be the sort who are interested in building testimonial road bridges..

& Giz a gas price that satisfies both parties...
sufficient enough that the majors then deem it doable,
to build that damn pipe direct to Beaco!

Starting to suspect that with a possible Winter of rationed domestic energy supplies being forecasted, that a direct pipeline might v.soon be economically viable.

Europe currently acquiring the available spare floating storage & re-gassing units (FSRU’s needed to convert the LNG back to gas, prior to distribution in the domestic supply pipelines) and have taken 5 vessels that were provisionally earmarked for Australia.

South of Oz needing to import gas (LNG) as their consumption slowly going thru the roof.
5 separate developments planned but looking like the Europeans may now slow that down.

Puts an emphasis on TL / Oz / China to make quick decisions..

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-dash-gas-puts-australias-lng-import-plans-risk-2022-05-30/

One of Bayu’s main players, the South Korean outfit, SK ES, just got into a strategic partnership last week with the Beijing Gas Group (who supply for 7.13M households) to cooperate on supplying & developing LNG in addition to green hydrogen (diluted with LNG and is then classed as ‘renewable energy’.. the holy grail?!) which SK ES are also currently looking at with Santos.

SK ES recently spent $390M to acquire a 25% interest in the Darwin LNG plant operated by Santos.

Suspecting that there will be no shortage of interested partners for a farm-in on Chuditch…

Thanks bud, got a couple of old acquaintances who used to operate occasionally out of Karratha (near to the Clon ops) & who will be wondering which way Oz is going to go.
Fingers crossed that China steps in to TL.
Will at the very least send a wake-up call to Europe & to our north sea assets.

After the weekend Oz election results & his stated policy of ‘going v.green’ then was interesting waiting on seeing who would be ramping this come Monday morning and hey presto… an “LBO”.
But.. 10 mins reading then saw a history of “there’s a rumour”.
Hopefully, perhaps this time there may be some substance.

Irrespective though, OZ has to come to terms with the global energy crisis as will China. With Anthony Albanese’s stated intentions of making Oz a ‘green super-power’ then would suspect he is slow on the uptake of what is available in the Timor Sea & of what is required to get us all thru the next decade, other than £2+ a litre at the pumps for 98% of current transport, so bringing on yet further recession.

The Quad appears to be limited on leadership.
Unlike China.
Nice spot HFB, should be an interesting week.

Thanks Shouston. That’s appreciated.

Assumed would surely be as stated ie. ‘a maximum of 10% of the oil available as primary recovery’ which then suggests that once the bubble point is reached (at bubble point, the gas in the oil is released, so no longer flows as smoothly) then using mf would assist further recovery.

[As mentioned prior ‘analogy’ was also referred to as one method of acquiring an OIP (in addition to production history &/or strata balance &/or volumetric readings) and is related to knowing the reserve characteristics; 16 delineation wells will chase this further]

How long to reach the bubble point… and guessing this is not anticipated too soon hence the production upgrades to bleed off the excess gas. That then gives the ‘max 10%’ as being quite indicative ie the GOR / TVP would need to lose almost 10% volume / pressure for the bubble point to be reached (temperature generally being a constant)… so 10% of any estimated OIP.

As CoplH & Tiburn both allude to, finding the bubble point is a dark science and which is critical to field management.

EGM sounds good ; possible changes to constitution?
Santos at play.. direct to their own LNG facilities ?
Supplemented with an extra 10% of any revenues,
then estimated to be worth an extra c.€3B/year to TL.
Well worth raising an EGM for…

Nice one, a wee bit positivity.
Topaz JV would perhaps be down to Raj’s skill-sets
& his good standing with the local O&G operators.
TK would be number crunching Mako’s potential
&/or the possible P route.
One for the watch list.

It might happen, it might not.
Current mc c.£12M. Drill costs were c.£12M
Then requires 100% dilution (not unheard of)
Would mean biggest holder TK, sees 50% of original stake,
When chasing Topaz.

Likewise can comfortably pay the 2023 drill from Duyung.

All hinges imv on what’s been happening aboard NH9,
which was sat on Jade for a long long time,
& is now 1Nm east.
Negotiations perhaps with COSL. Might then see a closer drill date.

I wouldn’t diss a possible placing.
Might perhaps be worth considering.

Lol, the Black Scholes was used by AM several times last year, perhaps explains their relentless confetti. Should be a good H2 on several fronts.

Still in but with reduced holdings.
That bb’s too toxic to try read anything worthwhile : attempted to read this morning at a Costa breakfast & I think was the equivalent of x6 “NT to buy” in the first hour so generally now only watch the trades. PB is a good guy but way way out of his depth. And not helped by the stupid mistakes (comms) that AM has been making. Fingers are crossed that a serious punter comes onboard.

That was my 1st thought Zombie that diluted thru the extra shares. Then checked the Refinitiv data base and it shows that July last year & Mr.B held 21M shares, so appears to be a drop of 1.5M as now 19.5M.
Guessing then that it was close to a million spent,
And is taking a wee top slice.
Looks pretty cool.