Member Info for dougb189

Mr.Ballard previously having held 21M OS prior to July 2021, now holding 19.5M.
Guesstimating a mixed purchase which was also inclusive of the previously hyped US prospects, so an avg maybe c.5p, then puts him down for having spent the best part of a cool £1M’ish.

Now 1.5M less shares, say at c.11p, suggests recouped c.£170 - 200K.
Which then means a safety margin is anything above 3p.

Excellent piece of buying.

Thanks Shouston. Some of these technical reports are akin to a horror movie ; one doesn’t like to watch/read too often but when forced to, the enjoyment is then in working out the ‘props’.

Similar to Mr.T’s reports, a bit of a horror show courtesy of way too much technical detail but when breaking down each scenario, you eventually get to see another version, usually a lot more simplified & easier to accommodate. Not so…horrific.

Apologies peeps, off-topic..

Lol, & the mind games didn’t work too well :
Ajep was already on a losing wicket, being the author of a thread entitled ‘AM is totally incompetent’ but he did play a v.good innings. Has a lot more integrity than most on that bb.
Bob, repeatedly moaning ‘it’s wrong’ when the negatives are posted is a shining example of the morally corrupt. He has zero integrIty, often on his knees pleading to “Arty” to give him a break, effectively trying to blackmail AM & the bb, with how he is totally exposed with only having one stock in his portfolio. IMO, morally corrupt who can no longer tell right from wrong. He should not be in the game.

No… the mind games was aimed at trying to get Mr.T (flaming his Q4 ‘$60M 2022 capex’) to give a more updated technical account (his Q1 $20M capex being poorly contrived) albeit it usually comes across as akin to a horror show for those of us who find that too much technical detail usually means added complexity. And so far, SWP + complexity don’t appear to be mixing too well.

Too much technicals is then perhaps not such a good thing.
Like working out the tax returns…suggests you are on poor innings.
BOIL’s 5T cfg with a possible upgrade from improved seismics within this quarter and Australian companies moving into the region, then suffices. The technical question then being ‘how long is a piece of string?!’. Hopefully we get good news this year (on several fronts).

Block P & Chuditch are both approximately 10,000 km2 so lots of room on both sites for the various gas fields. Block P then getting recognised as a source for some of the Chuditch gas. These sources aka kitchens will be at a very deep level and come with associated far hotter temperatures.
As the initial quagmire of carbon deposits heat up & turn to gas, they will then permeate upwards over the eons.
These ‘streams’ flow upwards, then collecting under suitable caps and so forming ‘puddles’.

The equivalent example might be Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay (largest oil puddle in North America) which sits at a relatively shallow depth of c.6000’ but that there is then several dozen O&G companies in the immediate area all working at different but deeper depths, inclusive of 88 which tries to locate some of the source streams (not too successfully) on the North Slope which are then deeper at c.9000’.

ENI will hopefully strike their own successes & so a tie-up could then be plausible. & with their Australian connection it could give strength to the argument of gas being routed to Darwin.

Hopefully no more silly mistakes on the same scale as the one exposed by the external auditor in the EOY reports but technically we are soon going into far more complex areas than previously experienced. Fingers crossed we get thru the next 4 months.

Thanks.. Van was well used last year but this winter has seen it mostly laid up, courtesy injuries. Looking forward to some hot rock this summer, if the wee arms can still function.

Will be much more productive,
than a summer on here just listening to daily pumps of “NT to buy”.

Antha, if we can get thru the next 4 months & into the middle of August with no more technical screw-ups or administrative screw-ups or financial screw-ups or further confetti parades, then put me down for a 4 year plan returning £1. Quite a difficult call isn’t it…

Peeved would be an understatement with respect to the screw-ups that have arisen from AM’s recent, completely unnecessary & completely stupid, mistakes. So erroneously stupid in fact, that one starts to query if the casino is being rigged..

Put me down for £500k in 4 years time.
He’s way too risky for playing anything close to a TR1.

Miag, there will be a positive albeit a v.slow positive :
The last time that the company acquired similar increase was Sept 1st & the unexpected 700 bopd increase (“..24% increase in just 2 weeks..”) which then resulted in the sp hitting the dizzy heights of 36.5p, which was a 5% increase from the 35p pre-announcement, prior to slipping back to 32p over the following week.

Would indeed be good to see Tiburn’s calcs again, primarily as I still have his 2022 capex estimate of c.$60M currently flashing red warning signs in my grey matter.

That extra +500bopd even hedge free, will then have to be seriously stretched out, to entertain even a fraction of these estimated capex costs.

A v.v.slow positive bud.

Thanks AJEP, that’s appreciated.

Imv the lack of transparency in relation to how the market views AM; his dealings or in his competence, has not been factored in on any of your calculations.
On par with using euclidean 2D mathematics for an equation which is a lot more warped, that must take in the extra positives or negatives of the operator’s name, his competency, or of trust. These are massive influences on the sp as can easily be seen by today’s sp.

Then to suggest that AM’s competency is a moot point,
comes across as very twisted.

Enjoy your day bud. Will be a few costas to recharge these batteries & hopefully then gain a brighter outlook . Fingers crossed on a responsible operator taking a part control or even just an interest, as per a hoped for TR1.

Indeed, far more knowledgeable.
And not quite so prone to blithely posting twisted plausible reasoning :

1st attempt…
Purchase price of that aspect alone will be @ $4,277,200,000
Gross turnover $68,000,000,000
Share price $14.26
converted 0.7634
Share price £10.88

2nd attempt..
Double the shares in issue halve the share price potentially - so £5.44

3rd attempt…
On that basis, more shares or same shares this Sp cannot reasonably remain under £5. The uncertainty will be the length of time to get there. That I find difficult to calculate with my reliability, save to suggest
CPR - 60p+
CPR + RBL + £1+
CPR + RBL + CNOOC + Q2 Bbls 4-5000 per day £2.50+

Twisted plausible reasoning that then sees a 50% drop every time the calculations are attempted ?

That then ends up with ‘Q2 Bbls 4-500 per day £2.50+’
A Q2 estimate that is immediately followed in the next sentence by
‘think it is feasible to expect 60p in the near term (… July ish)’.

Sorry bud, but I just don’t remember Tiburn coming out with such erratic calculations.

Talking of maths bud,

where is Tiburn these days ?

Artemi5, the noise can be useful, you need though to read thru it to formulate an opinion on how this stock will perform. Can then be seen that you are fairly capable of determining what is relevant & what is dross.. As you are then asking for feedback inclusive from the negatively biased posters. One can assume that apart from Treefern’s reasoned positive reply you are looking for something a bit more substantial than the repetitive *bleep* replies that permeate this thread & this bb. Allow me a reasoned negative reply :

Again. The noise is very indicative..
This is the weekend, which then means that any thoughts / opinions that do not conform with the £10 club, can now get aired without immediately being deleted. When mid-week & 1st waking up, then seeing that out of a daily current total of 20 posts, that there is then only 4 left available for viewing, then you don’t need to be a Warren Buffet to realise that something is terribly wrong. Today’s posts concerning the outstanding warrants or those concerning AM’s competence or of a possible rigged casino, these posts would all be quickly deleted. As an investor that’s a fairly hefty red flag. Primarily it points a serious question mark at the quality of the investors but also at the underlying core business.

Reading the noise and did any of it actually state that you must sell ? The answer is no.

Is it though a safe bet ? Again, deciphering the noise, when not deleted, allows one to see that many have AM as a liability. His name drags the price down. He actively promotes poring vitriol on anyone who does not agree with him. That there is then not a single TR1 significant holder speaks volumes. The £10 club would only ever come about if a JV or a buyout arose. And sadly, AM seems unable to operate within recognised guidelines that are acceptable to a JV.

Yes, there is a significant pool of oil below the ground, but it is what happens above the ground that dictates the price. You should do quite well if buying in at c.20p and then maybe keep a free float after the CPR to hold out for a buyout. Persevere though with switching off to the unwanted noise. Elevate yourself above this bb’s *delete* response to original opinions.

May the 4th be with you… is a nice calling card!

Santos having bought out the Darwin LNG plant from Conoco for $1.4B will be keen to see these fields developed & gas supplies heading their way. The giving an extra 10% of the revenues, an extra c.$3B to the TL.gov should help placate the 40% poverty line.
ENI (Aus) also coming onboard into the region, bodes well.

From HFB’S posts, then I think the figure mentioned was c.$15B to try solve the problem of a direct gas line to TL from the fields, courtesy of having to try get across the deep Timor Trench.
Which then needs China’s financial muscle & they do appear to be refocused on the local region.

Not tooo difficult to see that the sophisticated one,
is massaging a roughneck’s ego.
Getting results after a 20 year stalemate, should now be the priority.

Reckon that an ‘about face manoeuvre’ is definitely on the cards,
But would disagree on Horta just being a ‘puppet ruler’

Highly competent & highly connected internationally,
as seen by his Nobel peacekeeping Prize,
then suggests that significant clout will be applied to solving the serious problem of
‘..42% of the population lives below the poverty line..’.

Gusmao’s sole focus on jobs creation no matter the price, may have to take a back seat to eradicating the poverty problem first. Will still come though with a pat on the back.

Lol, just pace yourself bud and you’ll be fine.
Gold coast sounds far nicer than Timor.
Was Kosovo with UN & at the same time a shall contingent went into east timor. Sawcthem again 6 months later and they were severally scarred. Was quite a rough environment.
Stick to the Gold Coast and you’ll then be okay.
Take good care.

‘…The new president faces the daunting task of lifting the country out of poverty.
Timor-Leste is still reeling from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the World Bank has said that 42 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line….’

Most peeps getting the wrong end of the stick with CNOOC.
They’re primarily Not a profit making company but are energy driven , and keeping the cost of that down is only a secondary target. And as Trump pointed out, their ties to China’s military was uncomfortably close.
Their overseas assets were strongly driven by PR which China previously craved but now recognises it as being an Achilles heel ; nationalist tendencies dictate they will take over Taiwan, whilst recognising the new collective power of global sanctions, hence reigning in their sphere of influence.
Then puts far greater emphasis on their perceived home region which now includes Solomon Islands with TL recently having seen 100’s of $M come their way.

New President will likely find that he is in the middle of a bidding war between China & Australia to gain control over the hearts & minds of TL. Currently China is way ahead financially but those nationalist/ imperial ambitions could be their downfall when played against an ex-freedom fighter President.

Needs a decisive input from Oz which is sadly lacking.

Appreciated bud.
Nice to see new measures taking place in that region.
Could possibly turn into a wild west show ground.
There’s a ceo we know who should then do well.
Currently he’s on a slow burner & 99% will jump after CPR.

Apologies peeps for off topic.
TL will be a strategic asset for the 2 main players in the region.
New President might then play them off against each other, so taking a longer approach for the highest bidder, but suspecting he’ll opt for china’s massive financial resources.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S-bRf-NaYvI

the Nan Hai Jiu Hao (NH9)

Thanks Timster. So a wee bit like operating the chain saw on gnarly wood?

BOP installed once the 13-3/8” casing set,
which goes down to 2140m (this weekend?).
Then BOP tested before starting on the next casing.
The geologists probably identified a good cap above the gas.