Member Info for dougb189

‘14 months left of the hedge’ and here was me thinking i was the pessimist when inputting the figures needed to meet the hedge till December..

Hedge is slightly bit more than 1000bopd ; this years hedge figures started off in January at 1056bopd at $56 but with the pressure hiccups /CUDA inputs, then production fell below hedge figure, so revised figure issued for H2 now requiring c.1095 bopd at $56 to then meet the original contract.

Suspecting that there was again an ulterior motif for the recent CEO spend and I’m thinking it’s to do with July production figures. It could be that we have to reset the hedge figure again as that H2 target of 200,309 barrels at $56 will still have to be met. Once the monthly flow rates are back on track, then expecting that the 1st that we as shareholders will know, is that we see SWP again notifying the O&G Commission of the monthly figures in a due & orderly fashion & not as per the Bo-jo last minute publishing.

Thanks Illusion.
Your Q4 estimate is then perhaps a wee bit on the low side,
is i suspect that once the pressure issues are resolved, that flow rates should hopefully see a v.good increase.
Appreciated bud,

Illusion, at least when Daeceon posted figures of a possible 450M to 500M shares coming into circulation, he was only out by a factor of 20% (having neither allowed for a possible 144M OS if the BH get to buy at floor price or of the bod’s 50M stock options & warrants) but at least he gives a fairly decent picture of what the MM’s have to try and work with ie. a possible 500M shares.

But where does it state that there is now c.3000bopd ?!
With the most recent figures being c.1600 then a c.80% error is perhaps a wee bit far fetched.

Now try & imagine again the difficulty the MM’s have in evaluating the various parameters. Appears to be perfectly set up, for yet another horizontal slide in the sp thereby covering a possible 550M shares in circulation &/or of 3000bopd +/- 1400bopd.

Suspecting that DL will be genuinely tickled by being called a charlatan.

Sat offshore 2013 & with the share risers page running on 1 of the desktops. One stock had two consecutive days of 100% rises which then warranted extra reading. Stuck a couple of k on it at 2p and bailed at 20p. REM was in play. Took the winnings out but then spent the next few months reading up on its ebullient CEO.
DL’s next venture was then in Trinidad, in the jungle with 18 donkeys each pumping up 6 bopd. DL was aiming to improve on the technology/ drill sites & was aiming for 60 bopd from each new renovated donkey/improved drill site & some additional wells with a target of 2000bopd. Then put 100k+ on at c.0.7p and was targeting £0.5M c.3.5p on a 4 year timeframe . 1st well came up with 240bopd & the sp then shot thru 7p. Got out at the right time as NR then took it over. As recorded in the poster’s logs.

Stating that there has been ‘hundreds of failed ventures’ is a good reminder for all.
Reading up recently on the North Sea developments 2000 - 2014 & can be seen there is an average of 20 exploratory wells, 20 appraisal wells & 80 development wells all drilled each year (2000 till 2014) & from which there are only 3 years in which any significant (1000bopd+) production wells are put online numbering less than 20 for the whole period. It is not only DL that works hard to try to get results, the majors do too. Hence why spreading the costs / risks.

The timing & luck were both fortunate as was following DL. Now I try to listen to all the inputs which is why I have DL at one end of the table & TW at the other end. Is I like DL’s enthusiasm for everything & TW’s cynicism for everything. Both give the shareholder much needed diversity in approach. The cynicism though that is shown here just comes across as shallow. As yet another trader following the set pattern; sp reaches nice wee peak so start sowing doubt. Possibly then sets up with another sign-in, to again sow further doubt & it all comes across as insincere, as rather cheap.

As per Alvernikov’s inputs & in addition :

There is already an existing pipeline close by to the south west & would possibly only need a short link up installed.

TL’s two head honchos though have always asked that the gas gets routed direct to them, a fraction of the distance to Darwin but then has to go over / under or around the Timor gap, which is a deep deep chasm near to its shore line, basically a major teutonic fault line..

Recent reports state it is economically viable to go direct.
& TL’s two head honchos want the infrastructure & jobs to go to their own people.
Is a reasonable call imv.

Thanks HFB/Ted,
the original ABC interview had me cringing ; the interviewer was aggressive, interrupting during Horta’s replies then asking Horta ‘..are you threatening Woodside..’ and other cringe worthy inputs. IMO it looked as if Horta was also getting slightly irked.
the 2nd interview via radio was a lot more amenable to the TL President.

Had me thinking that the Chinese would be made quite welcome.

A projected $70B is not tooo shabby.

That’s appreciated ‘hopingforbags’ and best wishes to Ted.

Suspicion is that some of the smaller Bond Holders are playing both sides and that as per Opulentia’s instigating with the FCA, that the BH / M’s are now not naked trading..

Kinda suggests that they are hedging on AM to feck it up

There is sadly also a strong similarity to the BH terms…

US cents 20.01 x 119% (redemption fee) = 23.82
78% of 23.82 = 18.57 cents.
0.83 £ to US $,
… then gives c.15.4p

Then reading the RNS for the last bond conversion,
1,999,000 shares raised from 2 blocks of Bonds for $4M,

1 block of bonds, then equates to 999,5000 OS.

Question is wether or not we get a TR1 tomorrow in addition to another conversion notice.

A nice wee flash just arrived from Bloomberg : “The UK is importing gas from Australia for the first time in 6 years, a new sign of the desperation to fix the energy crisis.”

AND there’s a closer to home plot also available, at Block 18.

Wouldn’t worry about ‘BOIL currently being quiet’ at least not whilst TL.gov & associated parties are in ‘secret negotiations’ as to where the gas plant will be based.

https://archive.ph/RPIJE

A wee increase in the hedge required, up to 1100bopd at $56.6 to meet this year’s outstanding hedge c.200,000 bbls.
With the extra unhedged c.400bopd incoming from the CUDA acquisition, then should see a significant increase in the $25/bbl netback figure (having dropped from $39 Q1) which was getting alarmingly close to CUDA’s $18.

If July production figs are not too detrimental then can’t see the BH getting their floor price of 10.3p in which to start amassing stock. Suspecting though will still see a TR1 or two as with c.126M OS available at 13p plus of course the 119% redemption fee, so when this goes north of 15.5p, the long suffering LTH, will then have to wait just a wee bit longer to see fair value.

Duster., that’s not strictly true ;
what is to stop AM from claiming Chapter 7 or 13
then rewriting the clauses / hedges / share holdings & senior debt again ?

All he has to do, is claim bankruptcy, then ask a judge to write off all of the above. All it then needs is a new banker who then commits to paying, as attested in front of the judge. The judge will have only 2 concerns ; is the operation salvageable And can those 23 employees jobs be saved.

Thanks sparkz but I think you can understand why I don’t post too much and why not at all during trading hours. The above is a far-fetched rumination (heavily biased from a distrust of both AM & Gaffney) whilst trying to work out why some bond holders appear to be spooked. Or are they..

Bridgedogg., that is pure nonsense.

Did COPL take on CUDA’s c.$70M debt… No.
Did COPL take on CUDA’s awful hedges of c.$40/bbl….No

Bridge., that’s a fair forecast, it could as you described just as very easily go under.

I ain’t using any of AM’s in-house forecasts. I seldom read anything he writes. Someone recently posted they could no longer watch his latest video promotion. That’s where I was 12 months ago. From September last year, not a single video watched. I can not watch any of his dialogues. In my eyes, he is not to be trusted.

There is though another scenario which is not in any of AM’s charts.
Most on here have forgotten it.

Muddy Sands.
& the spike that ensued.

Hang in there, you will get your 25p and I strongly suspect a nice spike on top of that albeit the timing will be rather last minute ; you need to go back to what happened quite recently a few years back, just 3 miles to the north-east of our field at the Muddy Sands. We now know we have similar pressure so it’s all about the engineering & admin (not AM’s strong points ) But if he can get that one well sorted I think we will then see v.similar flow rates which will then over-ride any of Mr.T’s estimations. Just a hunch imv.

Got me jealous with your Oz trip. Really got into mining this year (even TW is promoting the same stock) but again I know it’s all a bit of a flutter. Excellent book by Jim Richards ‘Gold Rush’ which gives a good grounding in the geology but also of how luck is involved. Take care!

Hi Antha, I took uncle Tom’s advice & vacated, shortly after he managed to salvage the plunging sp when it dropped from 32p down thru 22p. His comms with the FCA then saw AM having to respond to the market rumours when publishing the previously unknown breaking of the lender’s covenants as seen in the wee print of the annuals.

Thankfully TW managed to salvage that particular train-wreck & the sp recovered to 26p, and at which point it was au revoir for me. Lol, but then sadly, I sold the vw and had a few spare bob to play with at then c.17p. I do wish I had listened better to uncle Tom’s forecast of 10p.

Always thought this would go either two ways, AM makes a complete hash of it & we all sink or that he actually starts managing (I see him as the Bo-Jo of the Wyoming plains ie. a slap-dash approach to RNS’s & to engineering) ) & this then possibly, possibly hits the dizzy heights.

Some of the bond-holders I believe are spooked. The ‘principle’ price is initially 16.75p (13p after the 78% discount) which is for blocks of $200,000 bonds. This then changes shortly before Xmas to a principle price of 13.25 (10.3p cost price) if the loan is not sorted by then. Lol, but wishing I had listened to Uncle Tom. The BH currently looking for c.15.5p to offset the 119%.

Thanks intothedeep, is the suggestion that, BH are playing by the rule book cos the FCA are actually monitoring this ?!

Morning Gary, lol but it’s nice to hear a moderate voice on an extremely toxic bb.

On one side of the bb there are the 4 snowflake horsemen of the apocalypse and on the other side is the Dirty Dozen, on yet another suicide mission, whilst gleefully shooting down any that question AM’s integrity.. Quite amused to say that I think the 4 snowflakes do hold by far the better arguments and which is replicated in the sp.

Thanks for that clear explanation on the 78% costings incurred,
ie that the ‘..issued 1,999,000 OS pursuant to a conversion of $400,000 principle..’
then totalled out at $312,000. COPL’s word salads are infamous.

Then puts 12.85p as the break-even point for the seller if done at today’s conversion rate..

& Why hedge their bets?

Question for the more knowledgeable:
does the raised $312k then cover the royalties that the US is currently imposing on flaring….

Intothedeep, only a 10% holding is required.
This then allows for the activist shareholder to raise an EGM.
With 90% stock currently being held by long suffering PI’s,
then AM & Gaffney both get instantly booted out.

Andrew Austin?
C’est l’ vie, one of life’s big regrets; not picking up the 10% of his last play,
when its mc was then valued at £4M.
AA then resurfaced at almost the same time as Atomic and thankfully was AA’s new play that I advised the daughter to follow.

AM & Gaffney are only seeking 10% ‘bonuses’ gifted to themselves via AGM. This is totally irrespective of sp and wholly down to mc. Their targets are simply not aligned with shareholders targets.