Member Info for dougb189

Can monitor track movement/anchoring/arrivals/departures
thru the Marine Traffic app.

3rd support vessel arrived at NH9 and appears to be aligning up with the first 2, ie it’s closely positioned for a forward track to Jade.

*apologies bud…Was ‘bigbench’.

NH 9 not yet on the move & over the last 36hrs 2 support vessels were laid off c.2km away but now the 2 support vessels are lined up c.500m in front of it, in the direction of travel towards the Jade. Wave heights also looking good.
Suspect as bigbell says that an RNS (or two) might drop v.soon.

Not sure Sub., that ‘un-named lender’ last March then warranted a red flag. AM had kept the team together thru dire times even keeping the lights on 2 years ago with funds from his own pocket. He’s aware of the knock down effect of using another wonga lender. Our lender then served us reasonably well; $45M loan over 4 years tied to some good safety precautions* including c.20% of planned production being hedged. Also with an additional $20M accordion facility, so again a safety margin for us, if unexpected problems or opportunities arose. The ‘lender is tied to our success & wants us to use them to pay for Cuda’ ie they pick up an alleged extra c.$7M on a NPV10 asset of $130M, so both parties benefit.
*until though we get confirmation that another placing has taken place then those high volume rounded sells are a worry. It may be that the corrosive behaviour of AM has resulted in a whale or two with axes to grind but with no word yet of a placing then my suspicion is, that someone close to the camp, is playing the market (those big sells). Then puts me into staying away from using accordion or from using Tennyson for further placings as now precautionary red-flagging both these outlets in addition to the CFO. The finances need a different approach.

The lenders have perhaps not issued a Formal default but i reckon Ernst & Young, our financial auditors, whose assessment of the current situation ‘insufficient funds to cover planned operational & capital expenditures for the next 12 months’ have tried to do so. Will he take heed. No. So I’m glad that Uncle Tom has now raised issue of deceitful [arising from the woeful] communications with the FCA. That was my only red flag from last March, that he consistently failed on communications, that what little he did do was invariably a good news plug immediately followed by another placing.

There’s a massive gap between AM & the shareholders and is reflected in the company mc.

The Annual Report statement was issued by Ernst & Young, who if I can remember correctly were also the same accountants who had signed off on AM’s $3.8B loss in the North Sea and he then appears to have kept them onside, perhaps to keep himself on the straight & narrow, and of course to be constantly reminded of exactly what happens, when. the. covenants. are. broken..

Thoughts are that he again totally under-estimated the knock-on effect of not informing the shareholders of his minor transgressions with respect to the current covenants.

He will though hopefully now be reminded of how other 3rd parties (in this instance, the Pi’s) then react to poorly managed communications as seen with the recent huge drop in mc of c.$30M.

He then doesn’t need to be too smart to realise that the 3rd party reacting badly, could just as easily have been the lender. And so repeating his faux pas from the North Sea. And all for the lack of some decent comms.

I hope you are right Iron, on your thoughts.

With respect Tiburn to the ‘..total cash / assets at Dec 31st of $15.4M..’
the interpretation was that $3.5M of this was then attributable to :
Pg.22…. E&E additions and ARO assets of $3.5 million relate to a successful discovery well drilled and completed in 2021 in the BFDU unitized exploration area. As the discovery well has potentially opened a new oil field development project and will be a critical source of knowledge to evaluate and plan the operational approach for the future drill program, the costs of the discovery well remain in E&E assets as at Dec 31st…

Would agree with Stas on his 1st two statements for wookie’s 2nd query, ie that AM is (a) not aware of the damages that he causes and that (b) yes he believes that these retraces are minor in the overall scheme of things. My personal grudge against this attitude of AM’s is that there is then a cumulative effect of transitory negatives. & imv is v.easily rectified. But he refuses to do.

& query #2… why did he buy shares ? Again, I’m cynical and imv this was simply to aid forward sells. As explained previously there has been a regular 10% dilution of daily volumes by big rounded sells. Then works out at c.50M that has been possibly placed since Jan 10. And I’m guessing at c.32p.
I did not see the volumes over the last two days, as not paying enough attention, believing it was yet another storm in a teacup, but the impressions gained was that whenever this went below 32p then the big seller backed off from further sells. That is until today.
5.5M shares volume of which 6 trades are all sells of 100k blocks ie 600k OS
Close enough to that 10% daily dilution since Jan 10th.
Since AM spent a few quid to then gain the best part of $21M.
And now, for some reason the seller has started the process up again.
10% daily dilutions..

My fingers crossed that it is forward selling & that then provides the financial fundamentals that Mr.T alludes to. Had a brief look at the financial accounts for Q4 & its capex of c.$10M, as vaguely remembered, with c.$3M on exploratory well & c.$7M gas pressure upgrades, so not much left over for Cuda. AM imv can’t use that as an excuse for his secret squirrel agenda.

Uncle Tom is now taking up the issue with the FCA of AM having put out that RNS with its severely incriminating highlights in the Going Concern Statement ‘ which then basically states that they are not one’ and that he believes that AM has been deceptive as there has been ‘no reference to these serious matters’.

Simply put, he believes AM has deceived and mislead, having first issued quite serious concerns in the RNS ‘there is no assurance that the company will be able to obtain adequate financing or that such financing will be obtained on terms acceptable to the company’ & then failing to give any further reference.

Again, this is all compounded by AM’s **** abysmal lack of communications.

Sure, it again looks like yet another storm in a teacup,
But how many of these do we have to carry & all because of AM’s pig-headedness towards shareholders. That will now be an army of c.10,000 of Uncle Tom’s followers who are now looking to inflict damage. Need to ask them all to queue up patiently behind AM.

Cheers LLnP., it makes me tonight’s party pooper But throwing in those extra figures from the Annual Report, of an NPV10 $258M from 22Mboe net, then multiplying that P2 net figure by x10, then puts us at 220Mboe (14.6% of the estimated minimum figure 1.5B bbls OIP) & assists in putting a lot of meat on the bones of the earlier posts highlighting a possible share price of £10.
Then throw in a strong possibility that we have Cuda….

* Table A-2

LLnP., you are not wrong bud as it is indeed written as USD M$
but sadly the definition of this in O&G reports is as in the Abbreviation List.

The same figure comes up in Table A-3 for the estimated Future Net Revenues 10% but instead of being written as 257,860 USD M$ (totals @ 10%)
It is then written as 257.9 US $ MM for 10% net revenue..

This then ties in with Cuda’s NPV10 of $130M.

That big number LLnP., although it reads as a million bbls but the metric used ‘Mboe’ is the abbreviation for a thousand, as per the Abbreviations list.

IF you wish to see a figure in the billions then you have to go to the Ryder Scott reserves appendix A, table A-3 which then shows the estimated Future Net Revenue Undiscounted which then works out at $2.038B.
The net revenue after income taxes then being $611.9M.
Which is for the 2020 RS CPR of 29.2Mboe gross & 22.63Mboe net.

IF we then pick up P2 reserves of c.12% of the estimated.1.5B bbls OIP,
ie c.200M bbls at P2, It puts us at close to x10 of the above…
& this is RS using a 2022 figure of WTI at $73.

Nice work Mr.T but hoping you are wrong on #2 using ‘the $20M accordion facility’,
thinking that a lot of Pi’s will be hoping that a bank loan will now be sought,
As we need to isolate the share base from unscrupulous warrant holders…

Nmike.,
1. ‘..Cuda's current operating arrears owed to SWP is $3.2 million as reflected on Cuda's joint interest billings from July 2021 to December 2021, net of its petroleum sales. It should be noted that unless payments are received on time, the Claim against Cuda will be subsequently amended to reflect Cuda's ongoing cumulative arrears, and any further resulting damages…’
interpretation of the ‘any further damages’ was that there may then be additional billings owed to Copl due to there being further capex involved for which Cuda are committed to paying 27% off. We know that there will be an additional 3 months minimum of cumulative arrears for Q1 2022, which as stated, the receiver has not been able to for. We have then utilised that money owed to us to then offset in our offer for Cuda (AM’s cheeky remark on un-sofffistikated investors not comprehending) but equally true is that if there is a successful bidder other than us (1000+ bidders in the recent Wyoming auctions, so we may have lost out) then sees us with a c.$5M cash credit to our funds later this month.
2. Not too sure that it would be off-putting to another bidder as if they then bid say $10M for Cuda & are successful, then the bidder ain’t going to be too interested that c.$5M of that then gets paid to Copl. Personally reckon that the latest shenanigans with AM being exposed on Friday by the shareholder base as a sad example of corporate leadership would be far more off-putting to any potential bidder. His abysmal & hazy communications will have any future NOP then emulating the FCA & so double checking all the paperwork.
3. My best guesstimate on the timing of the discovery announcement was that it had actually taken the full 4 months since the drill to then verify the discovery, thru field pressure drops & analysis of all existing records/charts etc. and that having finally satisfied himself that there was something significant in place, that he was then willing to share it with prospective bidders for Cuda in the assumption that bigger players would then take an interest.
4. Again, guesstimating that some of the $11M cash funds as of Sept 30th financial Interim Report was then used as deposit on the Cuda LOI, in addition to the arrears that they owed us, so we may then have seen AM put an inflated offer on the table, knowing in November that by the time payment was due, April 2022, that he would then have the c.$5M available to him from the arrears that Cuda owe.

Hopefully he pulls his finger out this week and explains to the market, clearly and exactly, just what is going on.

‘.. NPV of Producing Asset after tax (assuming 10% tax):
Proved Developed: $78.7M
Proved Undeveloped: $35.2M
Probable: $99.7M
Total: $214.4M
Net Asset Value, based on the above, is $249.4M…’

Then hopefully add on Cuda and it’s NAV c.$130M.
Just south of a total NAV $400M from a 2021 avg WTI c.$73/bbl?

Not too shabby.
Apart from the comms.
And the Gambino finance dept.
And AM’s current blasé with shareholders.

Lol, no worries Noob but I reckon that any shareholder holding since before December's placing have all lamented on following AM. With the abysmal communications from the company then you have good reason to air grievance.
Caution though on the multiple multiple caffeine stacked posts; is easily seen that less sincere posters will then hijack any threads on grievances and quickly resort to malicious fabrications. You then get tarred with the same brush.
Perhaps take a few days off, let the dust settle & see what AM comes out with.

The lender acting as the Gambinos certainly makes a viable alternative to the as yet unexplained high volume rounded sells, day in day out, throughout the whole period.

Assumption is currently that another placing had been carried out, with 10% of the daily volumes since Jan 10th till March 31st then equating to c.50M shares. Was seen that the seller started at 38p & seldom went below 32p so was guessed that 32p might be the base price then returning £16M ($21M) which in hindsight would now look like a v.good move giving some additional funds to the $7M cash reserves.

With no placing arriving it then raises the question of who has been turning over regular humungous sells and so the prospect of the Gambinos as a player is then notable.

If AM announces a bank loan then should hopefully see the lenders influence diminish and Pi sentiment return,

Lol, Gareth will be singing with us on the tinnies

Lol, the english will just put the mad Ozzie in for goalkeeper and with his arms touching both verticals the Tartan Army won’t see much airspace.

Thanks daramuda but in answer to your query on directors remunerations I don’t believe that you can call a wage of $504k/year as being ‘peanuts’ which is what the CFO currently picks up for trawling for buckets of confetti ?!

& they have recently awarded themselves an options package of c.8% of the current share base which is available to them at 34p. If they produce 5000bopd then they should see that bag several times over.

Pondering., if there has been a placing then was well disciplined; the initial start was c.38p which meant that Tennyson could then sell at up to 6p below the placing price (est.32p) whilst still taking a nice payment for their services, $500K for previous placing. They very seldom went below 32p, which indicated that it was then unlikely to have been a short player who was selling. Will be interesting to find out as adds a new dimension to trades.