Member Info for dougb189

Perhaps one of the better options we have is to learn that a placing HAS been carried out : if as suspected on account of the relentless high rounded sells, that 50M shares have been placed at c.32p (the seller never went too far below this until today) then that raises close to £16M ($21M) and which is then sufficient to rectify the BFU pressure problems And develop those 8 mf wells putting us on target for 5000 to 8000 bopd (inclined to believe the former figure as quoted by RS as AM’s spin on the latter figure is wearing thin).

Out-with a placing not being done then the benchmark for me appears to be acquiring a bankloan for c.$20M to develop BFU.

Was a 4 year plan committing to Copl which currently is at 23 months and will now happily walk away at 5000bopd.

Sept 30th saw us with cash of $11.5M & then 2 months later the lender states that we defaulted on 2 points of the loan (1) we dropped below the $2.5M liquidity reserve & (2) we did not inform them of Cuda’s impending sale.

Q3 was paying for exploratory rig then paying excessively to try repair the well-bore, throwing bucketfuls of various cement mixes down the tube.
Q3 to Q4 was also the heavy expenditure in upgrading the top-side to handle 10,000psi pressures.
We now know he had burned thru a minimum of $9M of the available Q3 $11.5M cash.
Then puts December 1st placing at cash for further capex.
Suspicion is that another placing was initiated January 10th. AM’s purchase was yet again another smoke screen.
Guessing he could have added 50M OS to the share base from a daily dilution of 10% of volume.
Resultant, is that he has bled the shareholders dry in both finance & commitment which now puts a bank loan or a JV high on his list.

Will say again, that the CFO has to go.
Finances are a total mess as is any boardroom members control over AM’s poor management practices. A 10% holding by any serious player would see an EGM getting raised & the incumbents thrown out. Fingers crossed.

Lol, that’s still mild for you Noob.
Still reckon we should send CFO Gaffney some Russian perfume.

Reducing the gas pressure whilst waiting for the green light to install piping. Which was then tied into Cuda developments.
AM will hopefully explain further.

Lol, nice one swingy, beats my henry hub calcs.

“…..there would be an information blackout until 30th March…”

The only reference to a ‘blackout’ period in the RNS’s is in reference to the 2 months prior to an Annual Report where the directors are prohibited from buying & selling but that courtesy of a quiet period [4th week in January] in which no price sensitive information was pertaining then was made possible for AM to purchase shares, immediately prior to commencement of the 2 month pre-Annual Report date & its blackout period for directors. There is no reference to an “..information blackout..” which would then be contrary to market regs.

AM, a law unto himself
& at which point your as yet unsubstantiated interpretation,
does help explain the lack of any TR1’s amongst other anomalies!
Fingers crossed & news will soon start flowing.

With the timing of AM’s purchase immediately prior to Cuda bids, then could it be that this years shares purchase was not aimed at retail, but perhaps was aimed at a possible serious player interested in Cuda &/or a JV.. ?
Was quite a big wedge that he bought which then suggested he was seriously committed even though it was only for a minimum of 57% WI and possibly aiming for a 85% WI.
In effect raising the stakes for any interested serious players that might have been watching events unfold, not least of which is a resource estimated at 1.5B OIP.

Same thoughts PB., that darned mr.P?

A non-entity purchasing Cuda assets would be poor result.
Guessing that AM would be quite chilled with a serious player coming onboard thru Cuda WI. Could then offset cost of FFD of 9x mf wells plus 150x Deep wells.
Guessing that a bid of c.$31M (adding up what’s possibly available to us at the moment) would then be enough to ward off any non-entities but leave sufficient room for a serious player to join.

Cuda was possibly evaluated as important enough at whatever the cost (the cost being a big drop in mc/sp)

which was probably then being offset at what the discovery well was beginning to show ie. some big resources. In effect..Short term pain for a long long long term gain.

Dropping the Copl mc whilst picking up much needed funds and then giving an offer for Cuda as a relative value to Copl, may have been the target.

Cumulatively & over the past 18 months the end result of so many raises then appears to be rushed rushed financial planning.
AM needs to get on top of that IF he ever wishes for ii’s to come onboard.
Probably offset that too, against the discovery. Lol.

I’d agree PB., & the big seller (mr.P?) seems to have throttled right back. Kinda puts v.close to 50M if a daily dilution of 10% was used since Jan 10th (total volume close to 500M). Today’s £10k sells first thing this morning looked very much like retail.
Fingers crossed.
& Good timing with end of month.

£1.32 if AM delays annuals for ‘..awaiting data from RS..’

Lol, that must have been posted on google by AM’s ID?!
The figures for AM’s Oilexco were put at an mc of c.$3.8B & an EV c.$4.3B with debt at $500M.
Was then about to add another $1B debt from a consortium of 7 banks, when was taken away due to the USA toxic mortgages fiasco.
35,000bopd from his Brenda & Nichol assets but had unfortunately reduced production by 50% to c.18,000bopd to enable 4 topside modifications to be carried out.
The banks then called in on the $500M with AM losing the lot.

No surprise he’s playing this one very cautiously.
3000bopd gross for March would be a v.good result & puts an end of fiscal year April 2023 target of 20,000bopd firmly in his sights.

Lol, thanks bud, but someone recently gave a lecture on I’d v ego v superego and at which point I fell asleep. The original still stands, he is a law unto himself. He most certainly can’t keep behaving this way if he ever hopes to regain that golden driller crown. Lol.

“.. BUT we are talking law unto his own..”

Lol, but occasionally, just occasionally, he throws a good googly.

Half expecting that AM will delay publishing results…
“..awaiting further data from RS..”

Could be reasonably argued that a placing is the only way forward : from Tiburn’s original 2022 capex he estimated $60M was required. This was inclusive of Cuda, plus some piping, plus 9 wells for mf, plus the 4 wells for the deep. All adds up.

January’s production of c.1100 bopd net barely covered the hedge and when throwing in all the 10,000psi top-side upgrades late last year, then was guaranteed that the netback would be south of the previous $26/bbl. The annuals won’t be too pretty.
Tiburn’s estimates are pretty good but I’d thought that AM might be looking to operate with capex closer to $30M to $40M, which imo is doable albeit with approximately $15M of raised funds, but again would be dependent on what he thought was a good price for Cuda.
The bb generally estimated c.$5M up to c.$30M and if using the top end figure, is still a Very good price for 27% of an estimated target of 8000bopd from mf. Then x by $100 so quite attractive to AM.

Only concern IF it is a placing, is that this time around, it has been Very disciplined. Which would have required a substantial incentive.

Figures for the annuals will give insight but hopefully RS will be able to add some clarity to the as yet unconfirmed discovery. 2P of the immeadiate acreage around the exploratory well, perhaps going as far as 3.5 miles to the south & 0.5 mile to the NE, would be a nice start but I’d happily settle for some 3P figures. Throw in an outline of field plans for this year & we could see some moves other than the permanent slide…

Would be an awesome playground, negotiating between the two giants,
if Liz decides to make her mark…

With Kola Karim having had his ass kicked by Essar in the English courts then it does appear that the two sides are no longer talking. Both sides will have made zillions from the surge in Poo. Both sides will be comfortably ignoring each other. But as per politics, so long as no one calls out insults or calls for regime changes, then there’s always room available to allow for a third party solution.
Just suspect that we may have to wait 12 months till AM acquires the financial clout to step up to the mark, take the initiative and to lead on the Bonny OPL, with perhaps a few more % of its WI, in his pocket.

Hey ho..Had thought 3 months ago that Jay had resurfaced when a new poster with similar traits of also never replying to a thread suddenly appeared but sadly was not to be.
Condolences to Jay family & friends.

Nan Hai Jiu rig still anchored securely blue.,
19.93N & 114.81E.
Earliest moves was for start of next week, if dry.