Member Info for dougb189

A good weather app is the above named.
Currently shows the main swell at 1.1m per 7 seconds
And swell 2 (tidal) being 0m.
3rd input, Wind is 21knts & gusting 28.

Guessing the vessel will depart from Shekou?

Grow up ART., you’ve been around long enough to know that most LTH were able to purchase at way below the 31p price that the Copl team got offered their packages for.

"Quite pathetic and it actually shows very little confidence in the future growth of COPL"
Amusing, albeit a Very blinkered and naive outlook.

Should there be an attempt to call an EGM then AM has facilitated the means to hold 10% of the voting. And quite pathetic, has to be day traders dictating what constitutes a fair reward.

CSE only needs two requirements to authorise the use of Options :
1). the Listed Issuer must provide the Exchange with an opinion of counsel that all the securities issuable under the plan will be duly issued and be outstanding as fully paid and non- assessable shares. For options granted outside of a plan, the opinion must be provided with each grant of options.
5.6 The terms of an option may not be amended once issued. If an option is cancelled prior to its expiry date, the Listed Issuer must post notice of the cancellation and shall not grant new options to the same person until 30 days have elapsed from the date of cancellation..
2) A Listed Issuer must not grant stock options with an exercise price lower than the greater of the closing market prices of the underlying securities on (a) the trading day prior to the date of grant of the stock options; and (b) the date of grant of the stock options.

So clearly highlights that no amount of bleating, no amount of whining or no amount of pathetic hypocrisy can then change the Options package.

Appreciated Noob, thanks.

Within the market guidelines, there is a somewhat wonderfully vague metric referring to the ‘reasonable investor’ which crops up when the regulators try to put definition on rumours,
Inclusive of : “…rumours are circulating in the marketplace that might influence or change a reasonable investor’s investment decision…”.

Is that I don’t think AM has to worry about any of us qualifying.

I actually agree that tedoby’s evaluation of an IOU for $10M was slightly over the top. But the RS CPR clearly highlighted from day 1, that this is a capex hungry venture; that in the 2nd full year of production, we should be estimating c.$40M capex, is in the books. End of. It then relies on AM to weave his magic to create value, which imo he will do. The LSE analysts have him capped at only 2000 bopd for 2022, & generating revenue of $44M. If AM then hits the sweet spot, we are good.

What I totally disagree with is your constant negative thunderclaps during office hours.

I keep mine strictly for out of market hours, usually at the weekends; it then gets bounced around the bb, several then rightly reply “he’s a tw*t” whilst several positively take onboard any negative criticisms. It keeps AM on his toes & It keeps the bb balanced. Whilst the markets are closed.

The negativity as seen in your posts during market hours, then has this wee guy reciprocating.

Feeling is totally 100% reciprocated noob,
& the main difference being is that I don’t like,
seeing dropped negative thunderclaps during market hours.

Cuda paying up for their WI on what was predicted to be $20M capex for 2021 & then $40M capex for 2022 as per the RS CPR which was then supplemental to some serious hardware upgrades, hardly qualifies as a Spring of Discontent ?!

Cuda could be leveraged; most peeps agree there’s c.$10M cash available in addition to $5M that is owed by Cuda to Copl (Tedoby’s has the IOU at closer to $10M, which could then be leveraged for a quick result. Throw in some COPL stock, as an additional sweetener and again could be leveraged for a quick result. Thinking we will find out fairly quick, whichever way it goes.

Cuda’s Glen Dawson as part of the package might then see a swifter return of sentiment. He’s sharp on PR, sharp on presentations & sharp at prising out $70+M from the lenders during lean oil prices. Investors waiting to see what price does Cuda need raising. Early signs look positive; CEO purchasing stock, team receiving 7% in options. A poker hand perhaps. Should be an interesting week.

Ahhh, so only the first 1052 bbls each day are hedged at $56.6

At 2000bopd & WTI $90, then gives an average price c.$70 bbl,
$10 above the analysts 2022 estimate of $44M revenues from 2000bopd x $60
Not too shabby for initial production.

“…This is in addition to salary and bonus. This is whole purpose of options. Usually linked to performance of the biz or unit you would be in, perhaps even having multiple tiers within that.
(As my, very small level ,of stock options are)…”

My moot point being, that any previous confirmation bias affecting what some believe constitutes the purpose of options, is irrelevant.

The size had some peeps smiling, as it does suggest (only a suggestion) that this is possibly the last of the dilutions. After having seen the best part of 450% dilution in the last 24 months, then yes, 7% is seen as a gift.

Just started a new 2022 hedge which then lasts for 12 months,
Fairly close to c.1057 bopd at c.$56 per bbl.
This is then forecasted to be 50% of our net bopd Q1,
reducing to 25% by H2 (from RS grapths) with 75% at WTI.
Lol, but this is all off the top of my head, as notes are at home.

Would disagree Noob that options are dilutive to the sp. They are primarily intended to give a return to the holder and that any return is a function of the holder’s endeavours. A glass-half-empty outlook, when one should be thinking more positively.

It is totally irrelevant on what constitutes ‘deserving’
it is simply a reflection of the difference between the offer price of today’s sp and of what it could be worth in the future.
If ARC’s 95p is reached, a lot of happy shareholders will rejoice in having triple-bagged, as so will the Copl Team when buying & selling these options.

At only 7% dilution then many Pi’s will be rejoicing if this actually is the last of the dilutions.

That’s a good call Demon, that AM is ‘old school albeit was never one for shareholder value’. I think most would agree with that.
Not sure I’d agree though on AM having ‘substance over style’: his style as oft been likened to a traditional red-neck middle-America junior manager, authoritarian & the substance so far must include some fairly toxic RNS’s with the 2020 Dec 18th ‘in response to market rumours.. there will be no dilutions’ then sitting at the head of a chain of ‘rushed’ financial decisions or how else could you explain a complete reversal of the written word within just 8 days of posting? A Substance so toxic, it then saw the FCA extend what should have been a 5 week process turn, into a 5 month process.

Would agree that the substance, as in the essence, the nature of a man should outweigh style. But with AM the style has always been rather authoritarian with v.poor boardroom inputs & the resulting substance has then often been found to be a bit toxic.

‘What I do trust is market economics - if you have 1.6B bbls of oil at 20% recovery the market will find the value’. So, our fingers are crossed that your “320M bbls recoverable” now materialises to allow the markets to re-define AM’s substance & to re-think their current lowly evaluation (15p on your 320M bbls). With the news being less than 1 month old, then is true that the market will take time to catch up. We would now hopefully see some good in-house financial acumen, possibly even a JV to assist in the financials, but as you aptly described, he just ain’t too hot on shareholder value.
For me, it all boils down to that ‘the market will find value’ definition, for which there are several inputs. So what else could options packages in addition to AM doing another stock purchase in addition to another Tennyson broker report be used for ? As you rightly pointed out, we are on the cusp, so will all find out fairly soon, the substance of the 2022 AM. Fingers crossed bud that the substance has indeed changed. The recent stake is larger than before & the 10% options that the team now has access to, are hopefully being carefully banked as serious future capital & not being used as a means to pull the wool over ones eyes..

Was both TC: was that AM had recently purchased a good sized chunk but also that he had then given the team & himself, the access to buy options at today’s prices. The latter though would be a detrimental investment choice, as if one is buying say 500k of shares, then could perhaps top-slice at a future date & then buy the options. Would be better to go the route AM has gone, he can then take a slice & pay for his options when w3 are further north.

It is a good positive for shareholders as they both hint of no further dilutions which is AM’s notorious Achilles Heel. He has had to do this often & also quite recently just to get us to where we are now, but the forward financial planning (with some raises being barely days & weeks apart) has raised concerns on the planning.

As shaa points out, it is just the notices being re-filed.

It simply looks like a good hedge;
1. it gives the bod access to 10% voting if an EGM is suddenly called.
2. It returns a good divi if & when the sp goes anywhere north of 31p.

Biggest metric for value creation has proven not to be Zillions of bbls, nor either $90++ POO, but is perhaps Sentiment. Market still does not trust AM. End of.
The previous post by Illusion (normally on the ball) of ‘some comms was a little bit lacking’ which was then inferred to by NoEasy as being somewhat ‘totally lacking’ as AM had on multiple occasions let down shareholders with his v.poor comms. In addition to an addiction to cheap confetti courtesy of some consistently poor financial planning.

Is why an estimated 1.5B bbls OIP is now evaluated at 3p per barrel.
A nonsense figure obtained courtesy of a huge negative sentiment value.

The above hedge is interesting as he has now offered all of the team a chance to buy in, if & when the sp improves. It does what it is designed to do; give payback to the team of a possible future return, which is as it should be. But as yet with no one from the team currently buying these options, then the market views it as a hedge, it may come good, it may not. If the team do good then they should get rewarded.

Then we need to take a step back & try evaluate which way the play will go..JV or solo ? And if the latter, then who is going to pay for this year’s 9 wells on the BFU in addition to the 4 horizontals in the Deep, in addition to Cuda…???
The history books then loudly highlights that a 10% holding very quickly becomes 5%, and for Hadron this was less than 8 weeks before AM’s addiction to yet further confetti then saw them chuck their hand in.

Good news for us at the moment, would simply be some decent comms. Starting off with how production is faring. Communicating to your team/shareholders is a discipline on a par with brushing one’s teeth, it should be done regularly & fastidiously. Market simply doesn’t believe AM can do this. He has to change his approach. Hence perhaps why most peeps are also hedging with their continuous top slices. Fingers crossed that he does behave.

& did HFB come back with any further info on those recent new additions BENC
Benchmark or reference price indicator…

Hoping that HFB is okay; was aware that some new posters did not like his style of repetitive posts on the trades but for most of us this had become as routine as having the shipping forecast quietly broadcasting away in the corner. And I seriously doubt he’d allow some flash-pan Newbie (having contributed the square root of SFA) to get away with a zero tolerance request.

Lrgs Xlon ‘storm force 8

Exactly as described yesterday. Not unexpected.
Actually comes across as a very bullish signal.
Puts future placings against the interest of the bod.
Whoop whoop… Cuda’s coming home to Copl.

Bouncing off $90 & sitting at $89.94

After yesterday’s draw back, now looks as if OPEC struggling to find sufficient production to keep up with global economies revving up again.