Member Info for dougb189

Thanks Sageman, that is indeed helpful, putting a little bit extra clarity on how the serious money will view this. It again points to the CPR being pivotal as it then introduces viable numbers to serious investors & to possible JV partnerships.

It could perhaps be suggested that the NPV is also inclusive of those ‘extra’ 575M bbls OIP (1.25B assumed within border) that lie just outside our boundaries, that are available to us if we are sufficiently quick enough but that any neighbouring companies could also facilitate access (Big Muddy on our western flank have sufficient clout to do this) & which again puts a time frame on the potential figures.

Reference the MM conspiracy theories, it can be seen that there are some shenanigans going on such as the forward selling from Monday November 15th of the December 1st placing, which is as expected with small financial sectors looking after each other but I believe that this then gets terminated once the company reaches a certain size (eg you could not have FTSE100 being forward sold) and that currently we are at 50% mc of when the MM’s throttle back from their shenanigans.

Time perhaps to flush the rabbit out.
Time perhaps to switch the headlights on.

Time perhaps for an email to the FCA,
Asking them, what in their view, constitutes ‘unsubstantiated claims’.

Give it another week peeps, & if AM has still not bothered to update his shareholders, & with the sp yet again languishing at sub 20’s, then start asking serious questions of the FCA as to wether companies with total disregard to equity holders other than when needed for funding, are suitably eligible for FTSE rankings.

Wonderful sentiment but sadly totally naive. One only has to read the reports on Oilexco’s downfall to see that even with a billion $ company, that AM still runs this as a one man show.
No, but the best we can hope for, is not confirmation of a billion barrels plus but rather its confirmation that a serious player is taking an interest.

Exxon TR1 5%
Anadarko TR1 5%
EGM raised.
New director for communications installed.

Fingers crossed.

Pretty confident that Putin’s main play is centred on the development of the underwater Nord Stream pipeline which then gives a far better return per unit gas, compared to his current gas transit fees for the two main existing pipelines in eastern Europe one of which is via the Ukraine
That would suggest the clock is ticking as not even Putin could survive the wrath of China if he then interferes with their Winter Games on Feb 4th.
Once he’s antagonised Ukraine enough for them to switch off or affect the supply of the gas, then should see both a peaceful outcome in addition to some sky high Poo.

Biggest negative has to be the constant placings.

Most Pi’s fully aware of what AM is capable of, with respect to placings. Until he shows a positively viable financial plan then the market will behave accordingly. As raised recently by another poster, we could easily have a $1B company with the stock still priced at 35p.

Most are now waiting to see if there are yet more big sells going through, which could be indicative of yet another placing. It does appear though that this has dried up. But peeps are correct to be very cautious. Wether or not Tennyson would pick up another placing which would then soon get recognised, and wether they would be left holding a bucket of confetti, as Pi’s vacate, still remains to be seen. Big sell offs though seem to have finished.

Lol, the sp not helped either by the cross ramping crew this morning.
Sad side of the game that entertains us.

There’s been both plenty of time & plenty of funds to have initiated another RS CPR. Can be seen that the 2020 CPR had a placing raised for it on the 20th July 2020 and that the Ryder Scott report was then available 1st October 2020. So approximately 10 weeks was then utilised.
Our accounts at 30th September 2021 covered $11M cash of which $6.4M was available for capex, so the 10 week time frame could be v.close to completion.

Tradinglad, would agree with hostile buy-out from small investment house / hedge fund for IF the field figures are half as good as they are thought to be as then would possibly elevate the oil to almost a strategic asset level.
Disagree though with your suggestion of AM bailing out at £2 as the numbers then don’t compute ie. £2 x AM’s current share holding does not afford a private jet.
Hence why I see AM trying to keep a tight grip on this.
Which then makes it quite awkward for us shareholders, as no serious O&G players imv would settle for just a NOP slice of the cake, considering their commited interests towards shareholders compared to AM’s lack of concerns. And of course those dire communications issues.
Then puts you thinking of field development, with possibly only a minor JV (that AM could control) and that then takes away any computations involving 100+ wells all simultaneously producing. Short term figure for me might then be around 20 horizontals at any one time. Enough to slowly build the company up & more than enough to then allow AM his next wee Bombardier.

Reverse engineering Antha’s calc of £11 can see it is a nice round figure,
£11 x 194M = £2B
by inputting Shaa’s lowest PE of 5 & £2.20 per share for 5000bopd,
then gives Antha’s calc as a reasonable possible when 25,000 bopd is achieved.
So, 25 of the estimated 150 wells if only 1000bopd
dropping to 8 wells required if nearer the 3000bopd horizontal well figures.
A similar flow rate btw c.25,000 bopd to what AM achieved in the North Sea.
That though was then worth an Enterprise Value of $4.2B & an mc of $3.8B
Then appears that the PE has increased inline with flow rates.
& that at £11 there is still a bit extra value to go to match AM’s previous ranking.

Last CPR report from Ryder Scott detailed the P2 reserves, covering proven & probable. This is then against a POO of $39 so the reserves will now have changed courtesy of change in POO meaning you can take more out whilst WTI is higher.
Perhaps is why end of March suggested… higher POO?

HFB, fingers crossed there’s something already in the pipeline. Lol.

Steve., reserves is just a calculated estimate of proven, unproven & possible reserves and so an analysis which ties in a single well with other sources of data eg. 3D could be done. Similar to the North Slope Alaska Merlin drill which if successful then puts c.650M reserves on their books for that one field.

Interpretation is that AM initially calculated there was a significant find from the August exploratory well which he then sat on whilst he brought in additional analysts (perhaps RS) to try verify his findings (Sept.30th saw $11M cash of which $6.4M was available for capex so CPR could have been started early Q4).
It is thought that having had his initial findings confirmed by an independent source that he then as confident enough to divulge the information to market ‘out of the blue’ so to speak. It’s therefore suggested that a CPR is v.close to completion.

34Q., there was a short statement posted from a respected poster on here about a week ago suggesting the CPR would not be issued until the end of March & attached to the annual reports but no explanation or reason given why, which rather sadly then coincided with multiple big sell offs. Disappointing.
Is difficult to interpret a scenario where it is beneficial for AM to wait two months prior to releasing news that verifies 10th January RNS if such news is already available. The poster’s suggestion is that AM had the exploratory results in August, sat still for the next 5 months then decided to go ahead & release to the market, then wait another 2 months for the independent survey results.
Will try work out possible scenarios where it assists AM to be sitting on the CPR news.

34Q., that would just be the broker note sent out by ARC to get their clients to purchase at last placing level of 20p x 30.25M shares.

It wouldn’t be permissible as ARC’s parent company Tennyson Securities held or are still holding placing shares.
“ARC are pleased to report that 10B bbls are available under the field” & Immediately followed by a placing by Tennyson for another 30M shares at 20p each..

Is perhaps how AM likes it to be done but the market has now cottoned on to his colourful figures and are awaiting a quality independent survey, perhaps will be RS again.

LargeG., the investing case for 88 just being the significant potential (as apposed to AM’s fag packet ‘guesstimate’?!) tied into the big number of loyal Pi’s onboard and RR, which for some loyal peeps is also a play for possible SMR’s, similar to that which the Chinese have successfully implemented for powering one of their cities.

(Dashing a couple of well armed MOPOL the equivalent of £50, was the means for getting a pint in the noughties at the Presidential in PH).

Would agree that AM desperately needs the financial acumen of Nigel Little to take control. The mud hound is good but when off it’s leash, then it regularly becomes a bit of a disaster as reflected in the permanent horizontal slide of the sp.

All the analysts point to the massive dilutions as a humungous negative.

To try recap : from the ashes, then saw good news [16.12.20] followed by £6M then £3M placings. From the now smouldering ashes came further placing £14M (which extinguished Hadron’s 12% commitment to COPL obtained from prior placing & these were quality investors).
With the fire now lit, fuel then applied of ‘xx% increased flow rates’ [which never quite matched SWP data] & followed by another placing £5.3M, the end result of which is that the fire has been choked. It has been starved of oxygen (sentiment/value) courtesy of the humungous amount of confetti that is consistently thrown on top of it. Pi’s are again now spooked and querying if we are yet again seeing AM revert to further confetti.

At $504.96k per annum, one needs to ask what has Ryan Gaffney our CFO has brought to the shareholders benefit other than the ‘pickled finances’ as accurately described by M22.

AM has now got much bigger fish to fry than Cuda’s small interest.
Tennyson appear to be making a mess of the selling, dumping 2.3M two days ago as facilitated by the MM’s, but which now appears to have dried up.

There is an actual average time period of 8 to 9 days between AM dishing out good news & then thumping the shareholders to pay for it, which then expires tomorrow.
Difficult to work out what a fund raise would be for as there is access already to the best part of $35M which more than covers the 4 development wells.

BPC took over Columbus CERP a few years back who were previously LGO.
BPC then sinking the best part of $100M in various enterprises.
(AM generally thumps the shareholders to pay for his acquisitions).

Scale is a relative term. AM is talking about 150bopd free flowing from each well but that the size of the area involved is huge. Bahamas chasing a single well was on a different scale, with emphasis on a single high producer. When Bahamas took over LGO they had been operating at a far lower bopd, with donkeys in a jungle operating at 6 bopd. When DL then brought in upgrades & aimed at 60 bopd, the sp then 10 bagged frpm 0.7p to 7p+ when the 1st well started producing 240bopd. AM is on a similar smaller scale, chasing upgrades via mf & wells that are then producing from anywhere between 100 bopd & 1000bopd+. The scale is taken from known results & from 3D analysis of the reservoir.

Interesting positive perspective CC from someone normally quite negative in his views on the previous management directions.
Would you not consider though that the current approximate available funds of $15M in addition to the available accordion of $20M is more than adequate for the immediate short term developments ?

Can see that several LTH are spooked by recent events as it does bare close similarities to AM’s recent history, ie. the posting of good notices then followed by a dilution. Had a wee closer look at this and it appears that a period of 8 to 9 trading days is AM’s normal time frame between delivering any good news & then delivering the bad.
Lol, but that puts tomorrow, the 9th trading day after the last good news, as a significant date in my calendar.

It is though imo, worth it for everyone to reread the Nov 15th RNS & of the company’s geoscience team evaluation of the Dakota reserve stretching 1.5 miles to the south & 3.5 miles to the east. In addition to AM chasing the existing 3D surveys to aid in the interpretation of the extent of the Dakota reservoir and of the discussions with the regulator of the BFFDU on a development strategy.

Downside is that AM comes across as a solo player, with an old fashioned 1970/80’s American style of leadership, that the North Sea knew as being ‘red neck’, occasionally derogatory, but recognised for being hard wired into the gene of the frontiersmen. Further downside therefore is that AM doesn’t do communication & so will leave the market players in the dark. Unless of course, he is again needing something. December recruitment of Mr. Little and his Nomura funds experience, suggests there may be a new direction in AM’s finance arrangements.