Member Info for dougb189

Refinitiv data from last accounts 30th Sept.

RBC. 4.01%
HSBC. 3.63%
Clarendon. 2.79%
Hadron 0.91%
AM 0.86% (which is for when previously held 1.7M OS, but has now increased)

Total 12.52% was then held by top investors (for reference 88 is <1%)
In excess of 13% with AM’s recent buying,
Then throw in these high volume buys..

Thanks Fats., was more occupied than normal in earning today’s crust.
Stas, that’s inline with initial reading of ARC; that the report is aimed at ii’s.

With Dakota thought to be worth $70M to Copl at a v.conservative 7% recovery rate, then acquiring Cuda takes it Dakota above $100M. At 7% recovery. Quite significant.

Interpretation is that under CSE that with the sp having now gone above CAD $.58 then that incurs a drop in dilution permitted & that we are now currently at c.20% max allowed (from my previous readings so needs verifying). As & when AM gets this over a certain sp value, then his access to dilution to gets smaller. But still significant enough to take a few % of a Zillion $ company. Peeps are getting excited at AM buying in, when this is in effect peanuts to what he could possibly pick up.
Ets face it, if AM again creates a $4.2B company off the back of 66M bbls of P2, then I’m not going to begrudge him getting another wee jet.

Is that AM could easily blow any ‘cabal’ out of the water.
It just needs some good comms.

10:13 sell was then delayed by 5 minutes, with large price drop then being recorded at 10:18
Offshore accounts?

Fingers crossed shaa.

Shouston’s classic “DNFTU” is though still high on the to do list.

Lol, then best you check the history books for this CEO.
Some quite aggressive selling this morning & close to 3M were on round numbers. But as per most peeps thinking, then is perhaps more the MM’s stock we are seeing.

‘Cuda is coming home’ and fingers crossed that Nigel is on the case.
As an exercise though, what would be a good price & what amount of 30p stock would then be needed to cover that ? A wee bit caution peeps till we know the full details on Cuda.

One small step for SWP,
One giant leap for SWP’s parent.
1000 bopd for the starter course is not to be sniffed at.
Good moves. Appreciated. Tq.

Lol, Patience is okay, whilst we still have a pulse.
& Some regular reading material would help with the passing of the seasons..
& Ask auld 6-strings, to ask the team to reacquaint themselves with the office typewriter!
Lol, so another Costa it is.

Thanks Apples, that was my thinking; that KK had too much egg on his face, from being taken to a UK court. Essar was always going to be set upon.

There are though some interesting developments in POO and it may well be, that KK then mans up.

Good question raised earlier on (i think was on another thread) about which direction AM would go for (1) continue with mf first, or (2) start with development of horizontals first.

Thinking that if the RS mf target figure of 5000 bopd is achieved and then maintained (i suspect it would be the cheaper option & that we are at least already half way there when the gas pressure is built up again) that we might then start significantly ratcheting up on the PE…

Bm’berg: Oil has its biggest January gain in 30 years,
& some top banks & oil companies now looking at $100.
Oil held on tankers dropped 20% last week,
whilst refineries & oil product sales are “roaring”.
OPEC meeting on Wednesday to assess market.
(Previous recent report suggested it may be a free reign to any country that can actually increase production. Somebody try wake up our man in Lagos. KK ?!).

AM’s team previously had Brenda & Nichol at 66M bbls P2,
which the market then valued at $4B.
So then equated to c.$62/bbl….

Lol. Nice one Shouston, but the rigs effectively go ‘off-line’ with v.restricted comms when pending results are due. The main analyst on this style of dig though, is all done back-room: charts / seismic / mud samples / etc.

Interestingly we’ve just past the 340M volume mark, since November 15th (just after good news of Cuda’s bailing out & start of forward selling of Dec.1st placing) which when using a 10% volume ratio for placings v Pi’s buying/selling figures, then suggests that the 30.250M placing shares have been cleared, the 340M volume taken from Refinitv data. It does appear there is still a bit of an overhang but suspect these are Tennyson clients that are now taking their cut.

AM & forward financial planning.. Rushed placings / book-builds barely a week apart ?
Still getting **** grey hairs every time I read that latest ‘initial development costs will be covered by internal resources’. Lol, been called many things but ‘internal resources’ takes the biscuit.

Fingers crossed we’ve seen the last of the confetti.

Is perhaps why most of our technology companies then head towards the NASDAQ as they reckon floating over there will see their mc increase by multiples in the region of x10.
Nadine Dorries, Secretary i/c technology & culture, had recently told the City to try introduce more relaxed approach to tech firms. She has her hands full though trying to sort out the nonsense that is the BBC.

The article though is a wee bit out-dated, as was covered in first week of this month, just prior to the interest rates rearing up huge.
Which perhaps then puts some of the FTSE ‘low PE rankings’ on a safer footing.
But, RR with an mc of £10B on revenues c.£11M & with debt c.£5B, & not so sure. Increased Interest on £5B ?!
Not so sure also that US investors will still be looking at all the FTSE stocks in the same light as a month ago but if £ continues its drop then FTSE 100 strongly benefits, as apposed to the more domestic focused market of FTSE 250.

The company suggestion is made that re-evaluation of previous data inclusive of previous well findings & of 3D seismic then shows an hitherto unknown layer covering an area inclusive of our boundaries and extending slightly beyond the boundaries.

The assumption is then made that RS (as already knowing the existing reservoirs) were again called in at or around the time of December 1st placing to do a CPR and that the almost finished report (as is estimated 10 weeks for 2020 CPR) is then sufficiently confident enough for AM to report the findings to the market on January 10th, almost 4 months after the exploratory well results were being initially interpreted.

A wild guess imv would be.. is that any major outfit contemplating a JV may well then have insisted that their own CPR specialist was then brought in to further reassess the new data.

Noob, Sageman has clearly posted that the CPR will assist the analysts.
The analysts will utilise the CPR’s estimated NPV.
It is a necessary for any potential JV & it is time limited.
That NPV will then be practically worthless if no movement by AM.

The CPR’s predicted big size, then bringing in a minimum x10 estimate of the current NPV & so will be far more attractive to major players than the current 25M bbls.

Lol, but often suspect yourself & HFB are on the same wavelength,
Is that often I just can’t tune in to what’s being posted.

Again it points to the CPR being paramount; the viable figures it will produce will then determine JV prospects.

We are perhaps though seeing a change in NPV; traditional thinking looks at this over 25 years but it can be argued in these changing times that this now been given a more shortened time frame, say c.15 years, again putting further emphasis on a JV which as you describe, increases extraction by a factor of 3 to 4.
This particular CPR will though also have to factor in an NPV evaluation of the estimated reserves that are lying just outside our boundary which are then available to both us & our neighbours. Time therefore again being of the essence.

COPL’s volumes over the last 2 years which have occasionally seen what can only be described as bucketfuls of confetti being traded regularly is very conducive to MM’s shenanigans more so than the current low mc, then tied in with the woeful lack of direction from AM. Big money arriving will indeed facilitate the MM’s tidying up their act in addition to AM then having to do likewise. Then raises the question, will he ?