Member Info for dougb189

Similar thinking this morning Noob, as reckoned we should have cleared the overhang. Against that idea though was that AM had brought onboard Mr.Little, the ex-Nomura head of O&G funds and so this countered my initial earlier thought.
Sadly the Pi’s significant lack of trust in AM leads many of them to take a very precautionary route.
Not too impressed with shaa’s ‘confidential information’ & having put a time stamp on proceedings whilst lacking any reasoning or hypothesis other than a ‘wink wink nudge nudge’. Was a wee chuckle ‘we’ll just tag the CPR data from a billion plus barrels of OIP onto the annual accounts’.

Lol, impressive number of pre-market posts & looks like a small handful whom are catching up on the potential.
In addition, Bloomberg also post that Poo at a 7 year high $87.

Is a difficult call Shouston but could also input into the equation that many O&G companies are looking at a possible significant windfall tax hit.
Putting an expenditure of a $B or two onto their books may be beneficial to both parties.

I’m leaning HFB very strongly towards a JV as the figures quoted earlier for the Anadarko purchase only reveal the tip of the ice-berg : As per earlier, they paid $265M for Salt Creek for an estimated 1.68B of OOIP from which they produced 683M bbls. This field only covered 5000 acres ie. 10% the acreage of Copl interests, that initial production in 2002 was 5480bopd which they slowly developed over 6 years to 8000+ bopd & that in 2014 they looked at a possible sale of field for $2B. The number of oil wells utilised… 400.

AM would indeed mint it if going solo but again would take careful juggling of development v production up until the minting process was self-sustaining. So a possible 12 months, considering current plan for first 4 horizontals in 6 months time? Puts me leaning strongly towards a JV. If the price is right.

Thanks Tiburn, that 85% leasehold & CNOOC possibly being unable to partake sounds v.good.
(My quite 49% merely implying that AM will keep the controlling share. Or try to).

Noob, there is a possible correlation with OOIP & P3 but needs further clarification. What we can see though is that further up the road in Wyoming at Salt Creek, Anadarko in 2002 then paid $265M for an estimated 1.68B bbl of OOIP. This then went on to produce 683M bbl. Likewise their Wall Creek II formation was an estimated 1.099M bbl of OOIP and it went onto to produce 465M bbl. Then gives from previous reference a ball park figure of between 40.6% & 42.3% of production from an estimated OOIP. Not bad when considering on similar strata & using similar techniques.
These production figures were then superseded when the fields bought out again.

Not sure how AM will play this; previously always gone for sole ownership with total control but suspecting he realises that a JV will seriously enhance credibility.
Then has one thinking of a 49% farm out, but at what price..
£250M thru to £1B for a big slice of AM’s pie ?

Some similarities could perhaps be drawn with 88.
An interesting figure from the Peregrine Development was of 1.6B bbls
which was the overall Mean prospective oil resource, with its assessments of :
Low (1U) 131Mb,
Best (2U) 744 Mb,
High (3U) 3,739 Mb.
The mean of prospective resources 1.6B bbls then being an approximate correlation with our OIP of c.1.6B (of which c.0.3B are believed to be outside our boundary).

It’s not the accuracy of the figures we are interested in, but is how the market reacted :

97% of 88’s stock then being owned by Pi’s of which it was estimated 12,500 had got involved at its peak (then works out an avg. of 1M shares per Pi).
With c.12B shares then having settled for months at 0.4p, they then proceeded to 10 bag, over a period of 20 days, with the motivating factor being the Merlin drill.
With 1.6B bbls of prospective oil on its books, the sp sat at 0.4p with an mc of c.£50M
When the drill was spudded, it then doubled over 2 days (0.8p)
prior to retreating 25% (0.6p)
Two to three days later then saw it again double (1.2p)
Prior to a brief respite, then taking off linearly for the last week prior to getting drill result (4p).
The rest is history. But worth trying to understand how the market will react in a build up scenario.

Question then is, will we stagnate, as 88 did at the £50M mc?
I’m guessing that in part it will be down to some comms from AM (lord help us!) but that primarily, with production already being progressed, that the market’s bigger players will take a far more active interest. As perhaps we are already beginning to see.

Sounds quite Ambitious.. The 30” piping is used on some of the North Sea Fields for sending output ashore.

The output from AM’s tie up between the Nicol field & the Brenda I remember as being 10” piping when there was then 22,000 bopd flowing and that it was then sufficient as they were aiming for 30,000 bopd.

Suspecting though that with the huge inflation now occurring [Bloomberg reports it as largest increase in 39 years] that your figures may be still applicable.

Lol, a deep well of experience there HFB, thanks for sharing,
& thanks weathergeek on researching O&G validations.

Had wondered if calamari was up for the job of explaining OIP v Reserves,
Lol.

Was, Muddy Sands bud, who were the reference for 50% recovery rate
& of course their injected well, 3 miles north of us,
which went from 3,000 bopd to 12,500 bopd in under 3 months.

Tiburn, I think the ‘blitz’ ties in with HFB’s ‘the end of the beginning’.
Ties into the African proverb used previously against AM
‘if you want to travel fast then travel alone & if you want to travel far then travel accompanied’.

Before he can travel accompanied (back into deeper waters) he still needs to re-establish his name / reputation. It then puts a blitz on proving his BFU forecasts of 7000 bopd & subsequent 8000 bopd, before then going accompanied. Guessing the injections will restart in earnest.

Tradinglad, the bidders will dictate the value
& the receiver will then divy the proceeds.
Strongly suspect that the lenders are reevaluating the proceedings.

Morning Tiburn, I think there’s a 4th Cuda ‘prospective’ that most are missing & that is Cuda’s lenders may now withdraw the bankruptcy charge; they still own 27%BFU & now that AM will soon be rolling in funds they can justly expect that field to then meet the RS CPR 5000 bopd forecast, within a few short months.

Tie that in with AM’s previous magnaminous nature as seen when paying off Atomic Senior, then could easily imagine the lenders (sitting on c.$70M loss) will now finance for a further 3 to 6 months, whilst 10,000psi gets injected. That then suggests a partial farm out of our FD 100%.

Then gives AM c.$15M ($1M deducted for updated CPR) plus the $20M accordion, so he his rather well seated to play this solo. (Again)

Could see CNOOC isolating themselves from excess offshore investment as China has suffered far more than other countries with respect to available home energy supplies. Whilst we were all moaning 2 months ago of no petrol at the forecourts they were already on reduced power supplies & looking at 2 days on, 2 days off for both domestic & commercial users. 51% of its power from coal & then this month Indonesia banned coal exports for 30days as they too suffering shortages.
All points at CNOOC vast wealth being almost useless if the home towns are all switched off.
Puts the Nan Hai, South China Sea region very firmly in their sights & thise areas with direct shipping accces to China (think of Akaska).
AM will do well to keep CNOOC onboard.

It may be though that ‘quickly’ becomes relevant,
as rumoured that Fed are talking of anything up to 4 interest rate hikes this year.

We have RBC & HSBC fund accounts holding c.10%
A valid point though & will no doubt be implemented in a few cheap offers.

Nice figures Tiburn, with Samson then at c.£2/bbl covering a conservative 20%, then an additional 25% on WTI (would perhaps be capped slightly lower as per oil futures) & then similar Muddy Sands technology generating 50% uplift of OIP.
Agree with noob also, that AM is just not the retiring sort.
Two big significant O&G discoveries (the 1st then being thwarted by toxic mortgages) & so he’s bound to be asking himself ‘did I just get lucky or could I do it again?!’ Lol, but there’s lots of life in the old mud hound yet.

Figures taken from Refinitiv bud, who handle all the data for The LSE.
As HFB described earlier, then there is a lot of loose play on notifications to the FCA (their desktops unable to handle Mac spreadsheets which occasionally helps the ‘shy’ investor!) andClarendon data is dated Mar 9 2021.

RBC. 7.8M
HSBC 7.1M
Clarendon. 5.4M
Hadron 1.8M

3%. 5.835M

(5% for offshore)

Financial appraisal for the initial early stages would possibly see a quick move on the banks, with the many threats of interest hikes being on the horizon, ie if AM was attempting to again pick up another £1B cheque (having been foiled by Fanny Mae the last time) then suggests that a quick result would be beneficial. Having brought Mr.Little the ex-Nomura head manager for O&G Downstream Funds could suggest a tie up with major player..

The discovery imv helps explain some of the anomalies that AM was printing as now guessing he was still trying to get his head around the huge potential.

Lol, but the more that hfb harped on & on about KK over the last 12 months, the less & less convinced I eventually became, even though had initially bought back in May 2020. Loss of confidence in KK arose from a feeling that Essar having successful taken him to court & a British court at that, then started to contemplate he suffered a huge loss of face amongst his people. Hopefully I’m wrong but there has been zilch assist from him so far. Write that one off in my book bud. Lol, but a play with CNOOC in the South China Sea where the Chinese actively encourage foreign participation yet then control any O&G developments with an automatic 51% holding has far higher prospects imv for Copl than does Nigeria (& watching closely EME’s current drill).

Waiting for Cuda to settle prior to laying further piping maybe suggests he’s limiting potential bidders to those with sufficient funds in preparation for a big escalation in costs…