Member Info for dougb189

The $8M has been banked long ago noob, with $7.5M to Copl & $0.5M to Tennyson as their fee.

This was then done with the forward selling of the 30.25M OS starting at 32p & all the way down to 18.5p. What could be seen that the majority of i5 was sold about the 24p support line, so an average price of 25p can be used for determining when the $8M was acquired.
This then works out at close to 24M OS, which then leaves Tennyson holding c.4M OS.
Can be seen that they did try to generate a support at 24p (ties in with 20% dilution of previous support line of 30p) but that the selling then resumed. At 20p they slowed down & it was thought that AM may have sent out word that this was his threshold. Two big sells at 18.5p several days ago and have not been repeated since, as only Pi’s currently selling.

Still reckon that Nigel has been brought in for deeper waters.

Can perhaps read that some peeps are not toooo impressed with the new website on account of ‘some data being out of date’. I think they are missing the point, which is that AM is now confidently delivering news & the date-stamps (albeit a couple of months behindj are actually quite telling :

It’s not too difficult to put an approximate date-stamp on the video production knowing that the October update on revised miscible simulation then resulted in the new requirement of only 9 new wells now being needed for the Shannon as apposed to the original 18 wells planned, but for which the video highlights the pre-updated figures of ‘19 wells inclusive of 1 injection well’ in the brief.

Bottom line, it is a wee bit dated, but far more importantly there is now confidence being shown by AM, in presenting this to the current market. Hoping that Hoping is spot on & that there are indeed several more announcements being lined up.

Was imv a really good 10 minute vid.

Nice spot noob,

Lol, but the Homeguard now looks like being replaced by the Esprit de Corps.

A lot of smoke & mirrors at the moment PB..

15 Nov RNS was only of an ‘approximate 2000 bopd gross’
for October. So it gave a negative impact.

22 Nov RNS was of a specific ‘2700 bopd from a 35% increase over 7 days’ but no note of wether gross or net.

The suggestion might be that this 2700 figure was taken from the published SWP UNITS listing & is actually net to Copl.

Guessing that SWP published their official figures sometime after the 15th & before the 22nd of the month necessitating the more accurate (yet still clouded) 22nd Nov revised bopd figures (which might also be a good indicator for when next set of results can be expected).

Smoke & mirrors ?

Suspect that the various listings are giving a mixture of gross and net. Ryder Scott’s October 2020 highlighted the rather strange set up of wells in production being 41 gross & 23.7 net.

October BF figure of 110,287 bbls would then give 3,557 bopd gross, which then gives 2,052 bopd avg. net to Copl.

October CC figure 30,451 bbls so 982 bopd gross
& at 66% WI in CC, v.close to 660 bopd net to Copl.

The listings under UNITS then suggesting 2,712 bopd net
being COPL’s October average.

I have it down as a simple honest mistake, but the references have to be the figures from the RNS’s, and would be quite hard to then justify the 70% increase in 14 days.

Edit *. October is 58,435 Oil BBLS
Then working out at 1947 bopd avg.
(Lots in scribbles at this hoomungus desk up in the man cave!)

Ambiguity is perhaps still there, as there is yet another list under Production :
Table (1978 to Current)
Which has the production for each month up until October
& for which the report is dated as of today, December 06, 2021 @ 12:37 PM.

This then gives
August Oil BBLS 61,872 / 31 = 1995
September Oil BBLS 58,115 / 30 = 1937
October. Oil BBLS 61,872 / 31 = 1995.

Was noted that RNS 15th Oct was then 2000 bopd
So was the median point for that month
Then next RNS 22nd Nov of a 35% increase, to 2700 bopd.

Guesstimating that on a similar slow time frame of renovation/ field pressure increase, that we should be close to 2000 bopd net & possibly exceeding.

Good to go is also inclusive of the Additional asset brought to the table,
which is Mr.Little.
As per Giveyourheadashake’s initial posting & the rather blistering assessment of AM by a couple of ex BP PHD’s, then the main criticism raised was of (I) a weak board & (2) inadequate reporting of reservoir estimates.
It could be argued that AM is making good efforts on both these criticisms.

The bopd drop thankfully not matching the drop in reservoir pressure, which was previously in excess of safety limits.

I would disagree bud. Nigel is downstream.. his discipline is in setting up companies that are orientated towards the end product, like making nylon bags from oil. Except that for our end product, don’t think of oil, but rather think of the cash. His downstream knowledge then comes from what the main O&G players margins are, ie he can spot their weaknesses. And it ain’t just better loan terms.

The post had merit, which was how low could the sp go but not for the reasons that the poster had implied, namely running out of cash.
Tennyson given two separate taskings
1. Raise $8.0M
2. Placing of 30.25M OS
Two separate taskings, but both of which were started on Monday 15th Nov.,
When the then support level was 30p (had been for 6 weeks).
Inputting an average sell price (grapth shows quite linear high volume selling) of 25p ($.0.3325) they then acheived their first tasking after 24.0M OS were placed. That then still leaves them with c.4M shares in their pocket. Which could then be sold at any time “within the next 12 months”.
Believing that 20p is the current support level, is perhaps blind faith gone too far.

Playing Russian roulette with a plateful of Puffer fish,
Rather reminds me of my share holdings,
Lots of tingling, followed by stop losses kicking me off the table.

So Brel’s a big fish..

Didn’t think we swam with any whales on here.

It’s indeed Occasionally used bud,
when many are losing their heads.
Calculat3d input that hopefully calms those of, shall we say..
occasionally high EQ.
Think that the results speak for themselves.

Noob, I think that equation with result in losing out of $4M production (loss of further reputation is surely negligible) has to be tied into tedoby’s stand alone equations on possible potential, ie the one with lots multiples of today’s value.

Lol, that may be a correct character assessment for all things office orientated,
but he’s still technically gifted, which is all that matters. At the mo.

Good estimates btw on your one year cash flows.
Put a margin in of less than 1/2 that, for Cuda to be wrapped up,
Which then still leaves a surplus… $6 to $7M ?
Enough then in reserve, if OPL 226 suddenly surfaces…

Said it already, the man’s a shark. A cold calculating shark.

Sp could certainly slide, but Tennyson selling of 30M shares will no doubt have involved selling the lower priced tranches to their own clients, so I’m guessing a 30 to 32p benchmark may be achievable short term, which could be done from BFU results that aren’t necessarily orbital.

he’s already done that…. ‘4000psi is a very dangerous working environment’.
Lol ‘safety issues’ from 10’ piping? when perhaps upgrading the pressure indicators to read the new highs may have sufficed.

Care to think of any other issues, eg. skilled manpower & driver shortages..