Member Info for dougb189

Makes a bit of a mockery of the main market,
‘..application will be made to the FCA for placing to be admitted to trading on the next 12 months..’
Again, it puts the company on thin ice.

Monday 15th, was certainly a pivot point, seeing both Cuda officially go to the wall and simultaneously COPL’s backers unloading $8M worth of forward stock.

Grapth clearly shows that 30p was the support line that held for almost 6 weeks, right up until Tennyson started unloading from Monday 15th & that their tasking was to generate $8M revenue from the forward sells at any price above 20p. The sales appear to be almost linear & so would hazard a guess that just slightly south of 25p was the average, so generating a 25% return, perhaps close to a $2M payoff for two weeks work.
This will have been directed by AM and the only uncertainty imv would be if any explicit instruction had been given for the sales to be completed within a certain time frame.. AM is only too well aware of how momentum destroys shareholders confidence. For me the next few days will be quite telling, as Pi’s look at the figures and possibly reason that there is value to be had, then they may start returning. Should though the placing sales be ongoing, then this will stagnate.

Fundamentals still look strong & as tedoby describes, the placing is accretive, so interest will be picking up especially now that we have a fairly good chance of picking up Cuda’s WI.
Just hoping that clear instruction was given that the painful cuts in the shareholder value from the forward sales were given a very clear timeframe (what appears to be a 2 week timeframe) which has now hopefully ceased. Should be an interesting week.

Would probably reckon that trying to impress the receiver might be on a par to trying to being friendly with a python. They will simply try to squeeze out the best bid for the carcass of Cuda & will not be tooo swayed by any bidding for that carcass which is done with artificial sweeteners.

Tiburn’s summary of what our 57% WI is currently valued at, $17M, seems to be a fair evaluation. Cuda’s 27%WI at $9M is then a fair evaluation IF justification was needed to put a minimum price on Cuda but that is not what the receiver’s criteria will be but rather, what is the best deal on the table.
IF no other party is interested then a knock down price could be the only option open to the receiver.
And at which point a summary of the production (one well producing okay) & of its operator (prone to some minor misrepresentations) may just be adequate enough to keep most of the O&G buyers at bay.
Problem might come though from any lone wolf with the aforementioned $9M readily available (Atomic Senior?) and it could then be that tedoby’s calculation of a $15M evaluation becomes closer to the bidding mark.
Could though an O&G operator see significant value in the undisclosed results of Fed Deep’s exploratory well & of the technical capabilities of the operator such that IF a reasonable evaluation was then applied to Cuda (8000bopd x 27% x $70bbl) a bidder might easily evaluate it far higher than COPL’s current mc.

All yet very much to play for and so contemplating if yet more additional ‘squeezes’ to the BFU/FDU game board, still need to be applied. Guessing though we are in a good place; an unloved stock, with the time clock slowly ticking down, to yet even more covid restrictions surfacing, then affecting future sale prices. Fingers crossed that AM can seal the deal.

Lol, thanks Illusion.

‘….so theyare saying assets off US$ 44,353,655
- swp owed US$ 2,190,744
leaves a balance of US$ 42,163,009…..’

Receivers have clearly stated total assets of $ 56,732,753
So bamboozled as to how the $42M figure was derived at?

Kind of intrigued though to the quoted ‘ $42M assets’
As is very similar figure to a previous occurrence:

As it was another receiver, who was then brought in,
For a North Sea oil driller with an mc of $4.2B
And after much bidding receiver then sold at $500M.
1/8th the original value.

Wondering where AM is setting his Cuda benchmark figure ?
Yesterday’s big sell offs will hopefully work in our favour over the next few weeks.

I think bud that Atomic owner picked up $10M in cash in addition to the $4M stock. He then sold early as does not appear on any of the holders lists. Reckoning he is short of a couple of quid but that with some ‘negotiations’ could then see him as a possible player..

Atomic Senior sitting on c.$15M

What price did tedoby say was a good deal for Cuda..?!

Keep some dry powder shaa, but yes, the current £40M mc for a soon to be 7200bopd (8000 less 10% as now only progressing 9 wells) producer from just its first field, whilst nearing completion in developing the second field, is a bit of a no brainer.

Commissioning phase would have seen the well shut off for a few days, then a single pressure of the reservoir obtained, but this has now been gas injected & so now approaching c.7500psi.
The well head pressure c.1000psi will be lots lower as this is surface pr., & bottom hole pr., from which the oil will then flow towards where there is less pressure.

Some interesting maps of the Muddy Sands field, 3 miles north, shows that when its flow rates went from 3000bopd to 12,500bood (within 3 months) the grapths showed a phenomenal 25,000mcfgd injection rate was used. Suspecting that would have been quite ballsy (lot more so than even AM’s normal ballsy approaches).

Hoping that this is kept under the radar whilst retail Lth load up, simply don’t want those MM’s f’n the flows again, keeping it artificially low for the next ii to again load up.

Like most lth, he brings something to the table,
Good on the macros,
but a wee bit poor on fundamentals.
(Consider self to be the exact opposite)

‘..Is it possible big holders are selling as Cuda might bring legal problems…’ ?
And there is one area in all takeovers that cause concerns and that is decommissioning costs. In that respect then Cuda’s Alberta plot might be a no go area for any budding takeover investors.

Think its more likely though that last week’s events north of the wall could possibly have played a pivotal role on this week’s sell-off, namely the Cop 26 conference which was v.closely watched globally. Guessing it perhaps spooked any funds that were holding in here at just below notification thresholds.

As the Times recently wrote ‘..the hedge funds will acquire “polluting businesses” at knock down prices whilst institutional investors at the urging of their ESG committees will offload these funds…’

6 hrs is a very optimistic figure for a trading halt.
Glenn Dawson could easily have a few options for responding to his lenders demands not least of which are asking the courts for a Chapter 7 or 11, hearing.
He could if his case is convincing enough even get bankruptcy status and have the court annul his debts. Usually dependent on a judge decreeing that the stressed business has a reasonable possibility of again becoming solvent.
A wee flutter last year on a similar USA engineering concern then saw the judge write off $500M in debt, whilst accepting a new loan structure with existing lenders & a very substantial 90% holding in the newly resurrected business.
6 months later was the eventual relist.

Thankfully, obtaining Cuda’s WI% is not fundamental to COPL’s success, albeit it gives a tremendous advantage.

This ‘gift horse with a cute smile’ (?!!) may yet have a further bite as per the 250k of rounded sells in the last 35mins of trading pushing sp down from 24.0p to 23.35p, then the rather concerning ‘jury rigged’ figures by the MM’s of 16.35 auction & the 17:05 balancing trades being marked a full 0.5p lower, at 22.85p. The grey fig’s of 1.6M sells v 1.45M buys are more optimistic but a wee bit caution needed perhaps.

No word from our Canadian friend as per his normal post-interview / post- RNS assessments? Those that initially resemble an in-depth Sherlock analysis but which often has the reader wondering if perhaps Moriarty was penning the assessment…

Any system can be fought.

HFB already highlighted several times that the shorts need to borrow Pi’s shares & that Pi’s need to fence their shares. End result though, is that the shorts get an easy ride. Until the news drops.
Sadly, AM ain’t tooo hot on media deliveries.

At your minimum value of 4000bopd, & with Cuda’s v.low netback $18, then this still produces $590k profit a month for them, so yes, they would have been in a comfortable position even taking into account Tallinn’s $400k/month.
They simply got unfortunate with last year’s oil prices & this autumn’s upgrades.

Yesterday’s was a 50k trade, then two 20’s, then 10’s up to a total of 150k, by 8:30 prior to the day traders then bailing. Was clever shepherding of a rather lame herd.

The numbers look interesting, as a reference to potential day traders, most of whom will have lost out today, but who will now be looking for greener pastures in what they hope is a quicker time frame. Who knows what tomorrow might bring..

The RNS was relative to the Q3 parameters ie. throttling back on injection pressure, implementing upgraded hardware for increased production flows & increased pressures, in addition to putting a squeeze on Cuda. None of it of significant interest to the day trader.

The capex went from $9.9M the previous quarter up to $23M on Q3 (Cuda can’t meet their obligations on this, Copl carried it comfortably) which was the price for implementing the upgrades, so again the RNS was good in highlighting the field has not lost all its pressure & should come back, fairly quickly (but not over-night though as some might hope).

The shackles are indeed heavy but that’s also relative.

The drop was simply led by a small amount of orchestrated selling.

Was the RNS negative & it was not, which could also be seen by Everyone’s reaction when it got posted. Everyone posting was nothing short of ecstatic. Not until after the small amount of orchestrated selling did peeps sadly start wetting their pants. Again.

Suspect that it was malicious and that it was also a small player, but just enough to spook the day traders.

As per HFB’S earlier & untill the mc is in triple figures then the MM’s will hold sway over the sp. once we get above c.£120M then the MM’s won’t be able to control it as much.

The ‘bigger’ problem is some not understanding that the BFU is now a sideline, where it’s productivity levels having now exceeded both the initial CPR’s has now seen itself being deregulated to the sideline, whilst Fed Deep now gets the additional resources.
The flow rates are written into the costings of these new drills, which must then be met and exceeded, for it to now have taken priority.

Evaluation of these Formations was delayed due to remedial cementing required.

All Formations with the exception of the Lakota were found to be oil bearing.

24hr epoxy should suffice.

Guessing the day traders don’t do remedials.