Member Info for dougb189

47.3% of Copl’s current market cap ?
Round it up to £25M for Cuda for all of their Wyoming assets.

Then uses $20M accordion loan facility plus $15M war chest.
So doable. At the moment. Whilst Copl over sold.

Production slower than Cuda expected.
Unfortunate for them.

Fortunate though for AM,
who’s stockpiled 3%

Seemed very relaxed when covering Nigeria, ie AM seems to be enjoying taking a back seat for operations occurring there; went on to expand though on its potential for serious volumes (Nigeria as a whole) and of ‘..how the global demand was requiring this…anyone can find oil there.. but its the political situation that controls operations..& that politicians come & go..’
lol, typical AM comms but imo good enough to placate the Lth’s on a brighter future.

Detailed reference given to ‘4000psi’ & the dangers associated of working at that pressure.
& from August, that we are awaiting upgrades to handle 10,000psi in addition to knowing that 6000psi gave a 25% increase in bopd within a 2 week period.
AM topping up his holdings to 3% points to the direction this will be going.

Hopefully AM doesn’t go for a RTO again…
$9.045 B loan via Tennyson. Lol.

Chesapeake with its recent Chapter 11 proceedings on bankruptcy against its c$9B worth of debt, could be a very interesting player; IF they then get loans written off, that then puts a seriously affluent major who is drilling on our southern boundary….

There is good argument given that the public companies are indeed buying out the private concerns as per recent Rigzone article, primarily to put a cap on production levels. It suits the majors to keep POO at $80 and that a lot of them are using the cash surplus to now pay off their debts & for giving dividends back to their investors whilst seeing 5heir own evaluations improve significantly. Interesting read :

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/permian_shale_oil_is_booming_again-11-oct-2021-166676-article/

Fed Deep’s current well being 100%WI
Then the rest of that field being ‘unitised’
But was there any explanation given on this..
is it at the operator’s call ?

Bill., anything over 3% would need to be notified but as HFB regularly comments (or used to, before today’s non-stop bickering) this was then open to ‘delays’.
Majority of holders will be Pi’s held thru nominee accounts but a wee bit sleuthing could then high-light parallel accounts (vip Pi’s) within these nominees.
Keep steady bud, oil is looking good.

Thanks Tiburn, that’s good to know, that this exploration well is then tied in with BLM’s 30 year Converse County O&G Project, with its planned 5000 wells being laid within the first 10 years from almost 1500 pads (avg. 3 wells/pad). Chesapeake and Andarko were some of the original big backers & it looks like Chesapeake are not being shy in seeking out the potential.

Asia’s massive dependency on coal :

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf

With recent weather events then causing significant flooding in addition to the environmental actions seeing pits being closed.

Explanation given by the beeb on how a ‘perfect storm’ is hitting China’s shoppers & businesses, due to as combination of events, inclusive of severe energy supply problems:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-58868636

Hold on to those O&G tickets as there is as yet no quick cure,
Imo, then resulting in a major re-rate in POO.

z(n+1) = zn2 + c
aka the Mandelbrot Set as used in his Chaos equation.

Mandelbrot’s fractals then created ‘datums’ ie minimums & maximums and for which it was explained that these ‘summer & winters’ are the normal operating thresholds but that when these min & max datums are exceeded 3 times, that on the 4th ‘spike’ there tended to be an enormous spike resetting the datums.

This was then put into weather patterns etc but it could perhaps also be argued that we are seeing similar here.
Oil is currently out of favour hence perhaps why no one buying in on 20% improvements of 1600bopd and also with the forthcoming end of the month COP26 & its recommendations anti-oil.

The recent low spike may well have been caused by that storm of confetti but which now seems to be abating.
With the Sheiks putting pressure on the Cop26 with the steady increase in POO & consequently seeing many nations struggle economically post covid, it will then hopefully put oil back into favour.

3littlepigs,
My scribbled notes against the ‘Derivative Liabilities’ on the printed off copy of MDA, has a slightly different evaluation : that theses are against the Senior Lender’s warrants, that they pick up 5% warrants on completion of the loan ($7.3M) plus the Libor charges ($2.1M).

The loss in revenue from hedges would surely be a variable.

Not qualified in accounting bud but that was how I interpreted it, from external reading.

Fairly well documented downfall with all the major energy news sources giving reports and courtesy of the size of the downfall [mc c.$4.2B then being sold for c.$0.5B] then also covered by the nationals, with The Guardian giving a surprisingly ‘nice’ write-up (on a capitalist’s downfall) whilst the Telegraph chastised the $10M tab for a private jet and then of course, last week’s promoted Richmond Energy report with its two ex-BP Phd employees quoting ‘regular North Sea hands report Oilexco’s extravagant approach’ in addition to ‘111 wells being drilled’ which seems somewhat ott when looking at Oilexco’s time-line in the North Sea [2004 c.200bopd then from 2007 commenced drilling but were then stopped 12 months later as the credit crunch hit] and that those wells only produced ‘a 40% success rate’ yet gov.uk then deemed them the most promising of drillers & so awarding them 7 further licenses with yet another report quoting they had a success rate of 5 wells for every 7 drills which was v.successful.

Can be read that AM historically aimed at multiple wells to more accurately define the boundaries of his plot acquisitions which seems to be reoccurring on the south side of the BFU.

Cowboy perhaps, up against the establishment, yet who was aiming for the stars & almost succeeded. Until Fanny Mae & Wall St. brought the house down.

Nice that he is now using Oilexco’s administrators to now check COPL’s books.

Thanks Tiburn,

Yes, slightly north east of Casper still has a few plots and which appear to be more centrally located in the basin. Is that I don’t see AM selling the family silver for Cuda.

Lol Guitar, and they even retained Oilexco’s administrators,
albeit now they use them as our auditors.

Not quite the reckless wildcard that some seem to delight in promoting.

The BLM (Bureau of Land Management) are responsible for issuing (via auctions etc) further plots for development. Should AM not be interested in Cuda but then has another asset on the basin lined up, it would then be beneficial in looking after BLM’s interests, as Chesapeake et al appear to be doing.

https://eplanning.blm.gov/public_projects/2003636/200393911/20029513/250035714/ParcelsProposedForSaleMarch2021.pdf

SWP then asking for confidentiality would simply be taking precaution should it turn out to be a gusher.

shaa, was primarily trying to address noob’s queries on mf affecting netback (the report states that the hedges were incorporated into the netback calculation) and also of how the economies of scale [as clearly explained by tedoby’s excellent posts] are incorporated by ARC using the CPR estimated production levels [eg.2000bopd net, by late September (which I believe we have already surpassed) then 2500bopd November] and that those estimated CPR production figures are the scaling used for netback of $39.3 at WTI $80.

I’ve every confidence shaa that these figures will get improved upon.

Did have a wee chuckle printing off the :
‘…$23M annual profits if August’s 1600bopd maintained & WTI $80..’
when I then realised that in 12 months time, AM could pay off the debts on Atomic and would never have to do any serious work ever again, other than change the big gas bottles.

Noob, my interpretation on scaling [for WTI $80 & operations netback of $39.3 inclusive of hedges] was that ARC were using the quoted 25% recovery rate of the CPR estimated reserves.
That the IRP estimate of reserves [+98% on the CPR fig’s]
would come into play ‘if those outperforming levels can be achieved on a consistent basis’ & ‘when reaching the 10mmcfgd [5 month avg. is 7000mcfgd] then may increase the average production rates beyond the CPR scenario..’

So the 2nd scenario [IRP] would then bring in improved netback from the increased economies of scale. But that the earliest any change could be implemented into broker reports would be by the end of this year (as reported from ARC).

The CPR therefore currently puts us v.close to 2000bopd net and with the WTI c.$80, the ARC c.$40 netback makes for a v.healthy bank balance.

Its looking good bud:
$23M/year profit at August’s flow rate of 1600bopd.