Member Info for dougb189

Vancation at the moment but the figures are given for the hedged oil. I believe this year it’s at $61 for the first 750bopd & then as we have doubled output could be seen that the day’s price (avg.$68 Q2) has then resulted in a figure close to $65 per bopd. Next results should then show it again getting closer to the current day’s oil price.
$61 though, was a v.good hedge.

Good argument in there for a reverse spit ie, carrying out a consolidation ?!

And the company is sitting fairly comfortable on having sufficient income to cover the payroll which removes the prospect of any further dilution.

Good article on the dastardly schemes of some of the MM’s.

Nice summary Tiburn, similar thoughts, and reckoning that 1.5B might be on the cards.

Good points Tiburn.
I’ve been trying to approach it from a different angle, asking self what does a CEO need to further his game plan. The current mc might then only be relevant if further acquisitions (greater than accordion capital + war chest) were being targeted.
I would then suspect that we then acheive CPR estimate of 5000bopd by end of Q4, a few months ahead of schedule & that by 2022 Q1 we are then targeting the in-house 7000bopd estimate.
Q4 then sees us with improved netback c.$33 x 3000bopd, & so banking c.$3M profit a month. At the same netback 2022 Q1 then could see $4M/month profit, which then becomes significant when looking at further acquisitions and at which point a good mc comes into play.imo.
Of course though the lack of any RNS’s might simply be that they may shortly all be irrelevant, that the Federal Deep’s reservoir figures and its 5-figure bopd flow rates (I wish!) then put all other RNS’s into the shade ?!
I think AM will deliver the news as when required.

Apologies Noob., but that’s the kind of numbers that are needed just now, to then lead the mc!
Still recovering from long busy night with only just finishing at lunchtime. Catching up on a few zz’s!
Did though get a few moments during the early hours to read report. Was pleased to note that the netback was steadily increasing and that this was out-with of the WTI. All looking very positive for meeting those earlier CPR and in-house field targets.

Tiburn, i would suggest you are incorrect.

We are still very much in the game for chasing the eXtra 42.3% WI.

That alone necessitates a few painted truths and so telling the opposition exactly how much of a war-chest is available would be rather counterproductive.

Machiallevian would perhaps be the better way to go,
Or in bb parlance, let sleeping dogs lie.
At least until the dirty deeds have been done.

Do the Canadians enable company bankruptcy procedures?
A possible Chapter 7 as seen south of their border, inclusive of Wyoming.. That would then retain the company but would require the senior credit facilities to be entertained, ie. $13M..

For the Machiavellie’s, I’m thinking.. Chapter 7.

Fag packet analysis of Cuda :

Jan 26th loan $9M with repayments of $200k/month from May,
then $400k/month from August.
Cuda Q1 avg.347bopd & netback $23, so c.$240k/month
& maintained at roughly that level for 5 months (albeit a small increase in WTI)
July 26th (1800gross) giving 490net, c.$340K/month.
So, guessing c.$60k short for the August 1st loan repayment of $400k.

August 7th lender gives extra $4M, but wants a sale by Oct.31st.

Aug 17th (2106gross) 575bopd net, giving c.$395k..
Q3 then rises from the mid August 2106bopd gross to say, 2500gross,
Cuda then clear $470K/month, using same $23 netback, from WTI $58
(WTI almost $68 throughout Q2; royalties & taxes will take a wee slice of that)
Can be seen that the senior loan is almost being accommodated But that there was generally very little left over for any field cost contributions. Payment was made on Jan 26th to the operator (Copl) against the outstanding joint interest billings (possibly the $2.254M unrealised gain). This perhaps entertained some of the then outstanding joint billings but AM then incorporated the x5 gas injection which perhaps necessitated the additional $4M loan.

2022 Q1 est. 5000bopd gross from the RS CPR, so Cuda could then be sitting with c.$1M/month revenues, possibly higher as the netback increases.
At the right price, could be very attractive.
(a Machiavellian play needed perhaps..)

Should see a nice wee jump in revenue:
Q1 avg. 706bopd (15 days gave $497k, so revenue approx. $3M for 90 days)
Q2. avg. 1200 bopd (gross) from April 1st at start of injections upgrade,
through till 3rd week in May when pressure started to kick in, giving 1290bopd.
then a reported bopd increase thru mid June,
when ‘field acheived 10mmcfg/d, 6 months earlier than planned’.
Guessing that bopd for 2nd half of Q2 then saw c.1400bopd at end of June (July 22 was 1800bopd).
Q2 : 1st. 6 weeks x 700bopd at $61 (hedged) c.$1.9M
& 2nd 6 weeks x 800bopd (750 x $61) + (50 x 68) c.$2.2M

Hopefully 1st line on the revenue page will be petroleum sales c.$4.1M
So up almost 33% from Q1, with the injection starting to come into play.

Will still have -$10M derivative liabilities
(for Senior lender’s 2025, 5% warrants + Libor)
And will be -$5M as paid to Atomic Senior (April 14th)
A good start though to being an independent producer,
albeit very much a minnow. At least for this year.

0.26p & generated slightly over £1.5M

Calculated at 7% commission. Had to be exercised before January 8th, 2022.

Lender warrants were given to the 2 finders, on finding the December & March placings and the 2nd lender (for March) holds similar number to the 585M just converted.

The senior credit lender for the $45M holds the ‘5% warrants’ against Copl America due at end of 4 years.

Eddy.,
That was similar thinking: ‘lender 2’ had two batches & they come very close to 585M as per recent conversion.

Ifo so it then takes it back to Tiburn’s Machiavellian play.

‘wild plans’ though may be needed for chasing Cuda.
We look to be very good for surpassing the RS CPR estimate and on track for achieving the in-house ffd figure.
‘wild’ish plans’ might perhaps be needed..

Hoping that hfb is on the mend or at least with some improvement.
As an ex ii his insight was priceless.
His sermons though..lol, but i could only remember that (a) we are Not on AIM & (b) some farm in england called wydtch (?)lol. He is missed though.

Way too dangerous game to play; trying to pull off 200 yards always resulted in spinal ‘pops’. Walking up & down your mate’s back in the middle of the course trying to pop the loose bits back in. Lol.

Your wisdom Noob., puts this lowly Pi to shame :

“The hedges are only applicable to COPL's Atomic affiliates share of production. As they are swap contracts we only hedge our share and will not, nor can't hedge NOP's share.”
A.

Vague recollection that Cuda had 5 separate plays; 1 in Alberta & 4 in the States, 2 of which were in Wyoming..
Sent a wee letter across the pond, so may or may not get reply. Fingers crossed.
Apart from your very applicable earlier point ref the markets awaiting next instalment on production figures, as we go from ‘tier zero to low cap producer’ its all looking good from this end. Of the bar.

Under hedges, the line was ‘entered into a master risk management’ which had me thinking was for the whole field but may have been interpreted/deciphered incorrectly. Will try get a response, and see if can be verified.
Failing which, 750bopd would then be quite close to c.50% of today’s output.