Member Info for dougb189

‘minimum, they have nothing..’

when perhaps it might be better to input the 88E figures that a vast number of their ii’s and Pi’s are currently using, thereby preventing juvenile ‘..with your 88E nonsense..’ remarks.

‘..a combined portfolio with 3.46B BOE prospective resources and 2P reserves of 94M barrels of oil..’ and so their ATH mc of c.£600M still holds a small amount of safety margin against the 2P reserves..

Peeps can then at least formulate an approximate mc value for Copl using the 2020 BFU CPR P2 figures in addition to the latest P2 figure from CC. Assuming of course that said peeps were up to date on their figures.

Hi Tico, all the roads up here have been mobbed & was nose to tail traffic but it still moves between 45 & 55mph and everyone is smiling. A costa helps on some of the busier stretches. Parking has always been ‘creative’ and generally the police & landowners turned a blind eye if it did not impinge on traffic flow. Accommodation was the problem with everywhere fully booked. Took me a week to work out that I couldn’t get across to Jura, walk the Paps & get off the island all in the same day, restricted by no available accommodation & ferry timetables, till the penny dropped & then took last ferry across, walked all night (mid-summer) then got the 1st ferry back. I think everyone has been creative this year. Still a few years short before getting van upgrade but retirement would see the T6 4x4 go-anywhere camper-van get swapped for a larger van plus loo, shower & decent kitchen. Lol, & the hill boots swapped for library books. Off to Skye next as the ‘support team’ for a good mate looking at doing the Cuillin Ridge. Will mean i need an extra can of Irn Bru. That will also be my treat this coming Tuesday.

Hadron’s long play in ARB seemed to be tied into crypto’s international evaluations ie. the UK’s ARB was like-for-like evaluated way below its American counterparts. That bodes well for here as we know that the Current PE & the Forward PE from the American ii’s are significantly greater than the UK O&G sectors PE figures.

Any long play (assuming no more further hanky panky from AM) would possibly need to see the hard Q2 production figures. And at which point, our evaluations may rise towards the American figures. I think AM had to do what was needed, even though it was deceitful and I’m hoping that Hadron recognise & accept this and continue to support.

Hadron’s recent history :
Feb 2019 & a Holdings RNS for 18M ARB at c.3.5p
Later that same day, another 4M, giving 22M ARB
They then held for the next 2 years.
They were still holding when ARB peaked at £3.30
& were then thought to have disposed at an avg £2.50
They have both plenty of patience & plenty of ‘wonga’
as the bb’s messiah would preach in his sermons.

Hadron were probably as shocked as the Copl Pi’s were, to find out that whilst signing the paperwork to spending £2M for 1B Copl shares, that the CEO then simultaneously sent out an RNS stating there would be no equity dilutions. A CEO acting as if running an AIM company would have seriously spooked them. It remains to be seen wether they still believe AM can create a reputable company. IMO though, we could see more ii’s join the party.

Like ships in the night; was glenfinnan ticking wee Corbetts.
Good parking in Mallaig either at carpark by the railway station or along at esplanade.

1.4p

MM’s opening high to then herd the Pi’s into a big sell off.
The price then held low whilst ii’s fill their boots.
GLA, its been an enjoyable ride & this is just the beginning.

Would suspect that the accordion facility of $20M might be earmarked for developing CC & horizontal wells. Caution would be waiting on BFU results but the initial Q2 is looking good. Appears that AM is now going ahead.

Resolution on Tuesday,
Consolidation 10:1 on Wednesday,
Dilution +1B on Thursday,
Deep water rig on Friday.. ?

Won’t necessarily be happening all in the same week,
But suspect it might be AM’s quickest route
To get his foot back in the $1B O&G club,
without again exposing himself to the banks,
Which he now recognises under the Prospectus list of risks.

It’s the ii’s across the pond that now need to get in.
IF the new P2 figures as seen from Tiburn’s posts can materialise,
and AM does appear to be chasing this,
Then the PE might then start drifting towards those USA Forward PE figures.

Trash was the oxymoron that is perhaps the local branch of the AA..
ie. those 10pm hate filled posts were anything but anonymous.

Glad to see it’s not only the cross-rampers who have cleaned up their act.

‘magnanimous’ was used purely as a distraction ; it brings a quantifiable (25%) amount of dilution to the Pi’s attention for his/her calculations, when we consider dilution as a possible means to acquire Cuda’s WI.

Then opens the question of for how much & a top end figure $80M then inserted and for which those peeps that think out-with of 2D (or those who engage solely in their propaganda wars against AM) then actually do some broad calcs showing what Cuda’s estimated 1890 bopd would be worth when we reach AM’s forecasted production level. Which then shows $80M to be a worth while risk when forward thinking even before we include CC. As a top end figure this is then doable (insert ‘magnanimous’) although one hopes that AM could acquire for cheaper.

That’s appreciated Noob, as you have probably gathered, the gist of my paranoias are of events out-with of AM’s direct control. Yourself standing at ease with an AK will hopefully keep the Querty warriors at bay. Tq!

For those who don’t quite share Noob’s patriotic enthusiasm for the UK.gov regulatory bodies, and perhaps contemplating on a repeat of AM’s bad luck/bad timing, with the toxic mortgage fiascos as regulated by the FSA and who now find themselves contemplating what could possibly go wrong with any interaction with the FCA….

https://www.ftadviser.com/2013/04/08/opinion/john-lappin/the-fca-will-never-trump-the-fsa-s-incompetence-okwQi6bwtFqP7F3udwKZHI/article.html

Lol, light reading peeps (But it is I do appreciate your insights on the various depths of paranoia that passes as posts on this bb, Noob).

& conclusion 2 : that some LLTH’s wear their ignorance & idiocy like badges of honour.

When OPEC announced several years ago that they were cutting production not one single LLTH on this bb mentioned the elephant in the room, namely that Nigeria’s oil assets occasionally come in such great sizes eg 200,000bopd, that they are classed as strategic assets, that one such asset was about to come on line, instantly rendering all other new projects, surplus to Nigeria’s production quotas and therefore shelved for the foreseeable future. And still they ignorantly held on, whining as AM raised placings to keep the team together.

The hypocrisy in the 00:49 post is on a rather special level.
‘..he was being a tit as was his Rottweiler.., Rude, very..’

Matt.,

In the murky world of finance then i doubt there would ever be an absolute Yes or No, as you have requested in your search for a ‘factual’ answer. It would be open to the various interpretations of ‘material change’.

Should the prospectus run past the 16th & your query of the possibility of the FCA then needing the latest Interim Results, I believe has been answered already, namely that the Q2 results were deemed to be not ‘materially changed’ from the previous interim results & which the FCA now have a copy.

There was good discussion earlier about what constitutes ‘material change’ (eg additional WI, additional fields,etc) but it does appear that AM takes the view point that we have supplied the FCA with the appropriate information with respect to Interim Results.

Its murky bud but its about the best interpretation the bb could come up with.

Markets are perhaps fine tuning the prime numbers,
for Each multiple of 1000bopd :

PE primed at 14
P primed at $50 for multiples of >1000bopd ($18M/yr each 1000bopd)
EPS primed at 0.001 using 18B OS & from $50 after netbacks on increasing bopd.
Then giving c.1p for each 1000bopd.

Fine tune the numbers as applicable eg. PE would maybe start higher, as per Tiburn’s recent peer group study inclusive of one which was sitting at a PE28 and then would drop off with significant escalation in oil flows until such time as further reservoir assessments were carried out and the netbacks too (initially $28) would also start high until serious flows kicked in.

Lol but Pi’s are perhaps more akin to space cowboys and are solely focused on just priming the boost pumps to the 1st stage igniters..

4 fold then :

It advertises the potential whilst the other markets are in the doldrums…

Speculation is 3 fold:

It allows the Pi’s to formulate an estimated value,

It gives direction to those Pi’s unsure of market processes,

It allows the Pi’s to put a credibility rating on similar like minded investors (yourself currently coming in at close to zero) for future references.

Lol but going by the outrageous mixed plates of previous Copl word salads, the ‘administrative staff’ was perhaps a sum total of one, AM himself (plus 11 disciples, i do believe).

As per Charlie & Ed’s points, suspecting that we must be very close to refloating on account there appears to be a whole raft of material points loading up eg. additional two oil producing units, additional ‘significant’ BFU oil flows and possible new arrangements with NOPs.

Ed.,

Outwith the initial flow improvements as you have correctly described, the cumulative result though is then :
‘….there is no material information concerning the affairs of the Company that has not been generally disclosed since the filing on July 23, 2021 of the Company's latest interim financial reports for the period ended March 31, 2021…’

ie. the Q2 has not materially/significantly changed from the Q1, which makes sense whilst the initial flooding builds up. The 1800bopd was only reported almost a month after Q2, on July 23rd & therefore would be part of the Q3 results.

‘materially’ could also be an inflection on how AM perceives those initial flow improvements as being insignificant ie. the market would not be able to determine yet, how much improvements are being done, ie could we achieve CPR estimate or Copl estimate..

Choreographed by AM ? & yes, would suspect the delays have been assisted, to the benefit of Copl but now we seem to be nearing a point where the uprated flow results of the new owner can soon be evaluated by the market. It still remains to be seen though wether we are on line to achieve CPR 5000bopd estimate or if we could achieve Copl 7000bopd estimate and for which Q3 results would be a clearer indicator, or at least, far more materially significant.