Member Info for dougb189

Only 750bopd is hedged.
With BFU output figures mid August at 2200bopd,
then 1/3rd of that is hedged.
IF the estimated net bopd for September then gives us 2000bopd,
that therefore means the gross is at very close to 3500bopd,
so c.20% of output by end of September is then hedged.

Nice one Tiburn, the NAV dilution on those extra couple of million £‘S that are available now from the warrants will be quite significant after a few months down the road, when Copl are then floating on good revenues. Very Machiavellie.

The low mc will certainly play into AM’s hand with any negotiations with Cuda.

Thinking though that CNOOC will be quite happy with any ‘aggressive’ moves on the horizontal/drilling front. After all, aren’t they accredited with opening up the region with their earlier plays..

So where are we at ?
September & production close to 2000bopd (net) for close to 20B OS (give or take a billion & a half) and in negotiation/s for an additional 43% WI. Not too shabby.

Sadly Joey, we woz robbed. We never got to enjoy the loud mooing of the herd. Hadron simply peed all over the party.

WTI $68 minus netbacks $28 giving $40/bbl
& Q3 appears to be nicely on target for 2000bopd (net)
X 360, giving est. $28.8M / £21M annual profit.

Not bad for our first 6 months in the Producer’s Office ?!

Similarities also with PB & AM, they are both very good mud hounds.

Yes shaa, Duster Dave, but PB had an almost 100% record in finding the source beds.

A lot of peeps thinking that the investment was only about producing bopd, which was not the case for the early 88’ers. With the WTI then at $20 bbl, it was shallow to think that the investment was just on production. Even today, many Pi’s foolishly assume no bopd equals no sp. The investment at that time was about finding and banking a reservoir for future use, & in doing so, then taking the sp from 0.35p up to 3.5p+. Was a good call.. 4 peeps on the LSE bb held between 20M & 30M OS each, of which Abman was one of. Although he was loudly singing of a 10p party, I liked to think he was sensibly slicing. Similar to here as the reservoir figures start to improve.

After the long summer tirades of abuse,
& knowing that most of his detractors would then jump ship,
did AM keep something up his sleeve..

Opl226 was sitting at £12M (4.8B x 0.25p) December 2020
immediately prior to Atomic acquisition, then puts a knockdown value of £43M to Atomic at today’s recent market prices.

AM then in danger of bringing back on board all his major detractors. A good time to use some dry powder perhaps..

He may well be right though re ‘an unfashionable sector’.

Thankfully HSBC don’t seem to be too fazed by following any latest fad trends. I believe they’ve sorted out the minor hiccup with their ‘laundering’ issues, that was aired recently.

The west currently exerting pressure on Opec & trying to obtain cheap oil to stave off any prospect of recession.
Saudi under diplomatic pressure to entertain the west.
Interpretation is that both sides would be happy at c.$70

Greg will be at the head of the list for cheap oil, to run that fleet of 10 eastern European aircraft in his primary shareholding, Blue Air. Guessing the ‘25’ is a quotient number.

Opening price was very close to £100M.
Hadron though then threw in the towel at the opening bell,
which for ii’s was 7a.m.
That triggered a massive sell off.

HFB suffers a wee bit from health issues, or what’s generally referred to as getting auld. In his case though, really really auld. He’ll hopefully top up on a few Irn Bru’s & soon start his sermons again.

Post-hoc and there was a massive loss of confidence & trust.
AM clearly did the dirty work.
Wether or not it proves to be beneficial is then open to faith.

Will be quite close to 250% more shares in less than 9 months on full dilution.
OPL226 then had us at 0.25p x 4.8B giving mc £12M.

Current mc of £57M or £72M fully diluted, the latter then giving Atomic an approximate £60M estimate, for say, 1000bopd. Then multiply by similar increments and likewise for OPL..

Thinking that AM will probably be quite happy that we have a good foundation, firmly standing on the first step and are back to producing with a reasonable wad to progress further.

Hypothetically and tempted to think that with our current BFU WI then we could be close to 2000bopd within a month; 1300 mid August, was a 30% rise on end of Q1 figure over 6weeks and this was done at reduced injection rate. The final 6 weeks of Q3 would then see an extra 390 if the 6000bopd was maintained, so 1690bopd to Copl but which should then creep up very close to 2000 if 10mmcfg/d injections acheived. Throw in some possible initial flows from CC…

& Consolidation for the price of a haircut seems like good value.

PE equates to a lowly 5.3, so a lot of room for improvement.
As measured from the pot, lol.

Assuming 18B OS now in circulation, creating an mc of £73.8M
1306 bopd @ $40/bbl after netbacks of $28 giving P as $18.72M
An EPS of $0.001 / 0.075p, hence PE 5.3

Lol, and only cos I like scribbling ‘shady nonsense calculations’.

Give it a few days & then let’s see what AM pulls out of the hat.

Tied in perhaps to the Willow field and Coco with an ‘extra 50 miles of piping available’ ?!
Lol, but should redefine their 2P values.

It was posted on this bb several months ago that
‘AM had to go for the jugular, he had to go for the senior credit lender’
& so then pleased to hear that he is addressing the problem, as per the AGM notes.

This then possibly suggests that the end of September LOI’s are tied into the Q3 figures, that AM is playing it safe until he knows the full potential of BFU.

Difficult to assess wether a quick result or leave it till later, would be most beneficial to Copl as strongly suspect he would entertain a partner (with solid finances) to assist with the fairly aggressive drilling plans. Buy out Cuda, work further on the 2P, then perhaps farm out..

* When we then relist at c.£200M what price then for an extra 50% of COPL WI ?

Certainly on the cards, but at what price.. just can’t see the deal being done with our $30M war-chest (minus $7M for insurance etc) which then puts us running low albeit with 85%WI & so close to 2000bopd revenues to quickly rebuild funds.

Fingers are crossed that AM attacked this before any Q1 & Q2 results materialised and so has possibly acquired at a knockdown price.

When we then relist at c.£200M what price then for an extra 50% of WI ?