Member Info for dougb189

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AM must reckon that we all have the same Sherlock abilities as Tiburn.

Previous ‘presentation’ from Tennyson was 2 days after relisting & so guessing AM had more than enough on his plate during those tumultuous days & the following weeks, than to worry about sending a placating message to Pi’s. Its timing could perhaps have been better done with Tennyson then not advertising our potential untill after the damage was done [Hadron + shorting cabal] whereas had it gone out become relist, then may have strengthened the buys.

Don’t reckon that AM is playing in a secret squirrel club, any news good or bad, would leak, cash being the king card.

Possible though that he is under restrictions to keep quiet on Cuda &/or CNOOC &/or WI%’s &/or Fed Deep results..

Would disagree with the idea of any rigid timescales for news updates as that simply plays into the hands of our day traders.

Not convinced we will see a TR1 bud, as thinking we have seen several separate big buyers over the past two months & suspecting they are keeping below the notification threshold for a TR1.
I see it as the mm’s are working very hard to try to entertain multiple vip clients, hence keeping sp low… imv.

Hopefully there will not be too many cynics to drive the sp back down.

Nice one Sid., it certainly puts a different slant on these recent big buys.

Cheers Sid but thanks goes to MkBarnes;
Shard Capital’s natural resources team ARC compiled the excellent report & then passed it on to their premium customers yesterday morning aka MkB.,

Will take a wee while for link to get resolved so would suggest peeps rather than just find fau, might perhaps start re-posting yesterday’s link for the newbies…

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6lrky7irx6p0xck/COPL_Initiation_11Oct21_ARC.pdf?dl=0

RNS link as per yesterday:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6lrky7irx6p0xck/COPL_Initiation_11Oct21_ARC.pdf?dl=0

$1.4M interest per quarter ?
gives $466k / month
or $15.5k / day,

& using today’s WTI of $80
Gives a netback of $39.3 (ARC’s fig.13)

Then requires 395bopd to cover interest…

Lol ‘pump up the jam’

We will all need to find ear defenders,
For when hfb starts singing again.

tedoby, there is analysis also given (fig.21) for $80 WTI
& using the same 2 metrics
[3.5x P/2023E CF] & [4.5x EV/2023E EBITDA]
that are both taken as the averages from 18 other US O&G producers, it then highlights fair value at…..
80p to 130p

“..the risk /reward proposition offered by the COPL shares is attractive..”

As LB points out, the pressure cooker must soon blow.

Lol, layer 5 of the deep, being the Muddy. With some very good results close by.

Fingers & everything else are crossed bud. Lol.

The first strata in the lower 6 levels, Federal 1, then reported free flowing at 3000bopd only 6 miles to the north of us.
Would be more than pleased to just see 10% of that figure.

One of the bottom two stratas, the Muddy strata, similar good results.

We don’t necessarily have to be on the sweet spot, but anything around 10% of nearby results, will see this fly.

tedoby, the ARC’s evaluation of WTI is displayed in Fig.11
where they then use WTI price of $60/bbl,
for their base case assessments, allowing for a current WTI of $80 & an Undiscounted break-even evaluation of $20.2

Thanks MarkB., excellent analysis report by ARC, which then gives a current fair price estimate of 55p to 80p and with the belief that the market currently ‘implies’ a production plateau of c.2500bopd net to Copl. Lots of new metrics used (other than the Pi’s PE ratio!) with some heavy emphasis given to the P/CF ratio but for which it’s evaluation of 53p then gets superceded by ARC’s fair value est. 55p to 80p. Which is in their own words, quite conservative, with everything else that is happening in the company.

Comes across as high-end analysis and indeed Shard Capital’s write up of their natural resources team ARC, points at strong institutional sales.

Nice spot, bud, catching it hot off the press this morning.

Hence why I suspect AM is delaying those ‘normal’ updates..

News this week? Perhaps & if so, i then see it being ‘stacked’.

AM believes he’s been targeted & he ain't too happy about it.
Suspect’s that there has been ‘3 waves’ & so fearful of another.

Last big buy c.£197k at c.32p and the question then was,
Is it a bear raid ie. topping up to then sell off on the next good piece of news eg.2000bopd
($2M/mnth profit @$33 netback,
$24M/year profit x a v.lowly PE4, then giving an sp c.42p)
immediately followed with the next wave of bear-raid sell-off (eg. the recent £197k @32p giving profit of c.£50k)
but also running parallel with some serious shorts…

IF as per AM’s suspicions, will then require some dastardly manoeuvres, for which the best i can come up with is, send out an RNS ‘good results mf BFU eg.2000bopd’
Then wait for the inevitable sell off, which get the shorts in position,
then hit them with a serious RNS eg.Cuda liens &/or buy-out,
or any one of the significant news drops that the LLTH have invested in..

Is i do think AM has to reciprocate & play dirty.
‘Stacked news’ might be the way forward.

Perhaps a better way to explain it Ginger,
is that AM can not treat himself to another wee private jet
For at least… 12 months?

Ohhh.. hang on, that comes under business travel.
Ok, so a wee jet end of next year, but brings his own sarnies

Lots of peeps will be curious as to the flow rates which when last publicised, shot up 24% over a 2 week period, whilst mf got throttled back to 6000mcfgd (insert rocket emoji..)

But which all becomes chicken feed when compared to the adjacent field, sitting next to BF, which on successful mf, went from 3000bopd to over 12,000bopd within 3 months of gas insertion (insert hooomungous rocket emoji..) as can be noted on pg.11 of Cuda’s 2019 PR report.

With up to 48 horizontals provisionally planned as per Cuda report, then would be more than happy to start with a couple of hundred bopd’s. Indeed everyone is *cough* patiently awaiting those results.