Member Info for dougb189

With both senior lenders working in unison, then puts the bankruptcy primarily as a threat (Tallinn having lien over the Wyoming interests & so Bridging then with effectively zilch) but it brings forward the 15th for a resolution which could tie in with accepting a possible sweetheart deal, aka HFB, where everyone gets a slice of pie.

Suggests imo that HFB’S sweetheart deal may be on the table.

Deepest condolences PB. Keep strong.

A very tight squeeze on Cuda for the 15th!

lokan., that would be fair that their are multiple reasonings behind under evaluation but just don’t let AM off with his terrible track record of playing lone wolf & keeping investors in the dark of any happenings, even outside of a possible NDA.

I’d disagree Tiburn as i thought LB was havering,
The original query was why we are not as per ARC evaluations (fair value or otherwise) & LB then effectively states ‘..you have to take the ARC evaluation & that only 53% then applies to us…’ which is utter nonsense.
The reason in under evaluation is purely down to sentiment & nefarious trading practices.

Presentations Part A & Part B, where A was Shard’s Tennyson report giving poorer graph on the various flows including actual but only up until July (also gives fig.17 which showed that the Muddy Sands was able to take 25,000mcfg/d injections which then boosted its output from “3,500bopd to 12,500bopd in <6 months”).
Part B was Shard’s ARC report giving a better detailed graph on various flow rates inc. actual up until Sept 1st.
Thinking i have possibly deleted the 2nd presentation from phone. No worries, MkBarnes had the link, i think there was hiccups going via rns.

Thanks Noob, i used conservative figures but there are additional figures for the BF flows as seen on the ARC presentation and which are displayed in graph format, effectively showing that the flow varies on an almost daily basis, that the 3 spikes were as per your figures and that the average was slightly higher than CPR graph estimate.
Oot misbehaving & no access to the presentation so unable to state which graph but it does give good rolling figures & estimates that we will be above CPR flow rates.
In addition to Tiburn’s reassuring comments on Fed Deep & further WI then should be an exciting week ahead.

The sp estimates on 15th will be dependent on news flow.
You could estimate that the flow may be c.1000bopd
By using the Sept 1st pressure of c. 6000psi & it’s 1600bopd net to Copl,
down to say 4000psi ( figure was referred to several times in the ARC pod) so then giving, say 1000bopd net, which would be a low end value yet still fairly respectable figure for production taking into account any implemented field upgrades.
Input Bladderman’s equations of 3000bopd giving $65M & so that would give c.$22M revenues, so again a very respectable figure.
Assuming no further news releases then market will sadly take it to the cleaners, knowing that a lack of comms is AM’s default setting.
Puts the emphasis on some decent news releases. Which is plausible, as Fed Deep sounds as if it’s very promising as does possible gains in WI.
Should be quite an exciting week either way.

‘mates rates’ suggests an ii… the umpteenth i do believe.
All keeping below threshold.

Confident that the mud hound can sniff out the sweet spots,
sadly not so confident that the hound knows how to behave.

Nice one bud, it appears it is I who is legless.
Guessing though that we are still well above the new hedged figure;
the repeated referrals to the dangers when working at 4000psi,
Imo suggests it’s a figure worth considering.

Hedge at 753 bopd till Dec 31st.

I would stand up bud & shout indignantly thou art a deramper,
But still following on the floor at your FDR
‘legless’ …. get it ?!!
Lol, but I’m saying nothing coz it’ll be incriminating.

Waiting for the confetti to settle. Still a few pocketfuls around.

For churning I would add some in from the roadshows for the ii’s.
Perhaps having being given the field itineraries and therefore have half an idea of what’s due when.

Lol. ‘.. it’ll take the rest of the year at this rate..’
at this rate it’s going to take a minimum of 5 months
as reckon we must be getting close to being an RTO,
to acquire that 27%.

*Block

Lol but Am sure likes sitting in deep water,
(tempted to ask him to come into shallower waters eg. Bulk.18 & can then monitor from front window, but reckon we are still a couple of months short on that kind of move).

Lol, so Not quite the ‘perfect storm’ of news flows,
but more on a par with the daily shipping forecast :

RBC Cap, south-westerly 0.45 to 0.46
TD Sec northerly 0.46 swinging to southerly 0.51
Forties & expected hooley 0.44 rising to 0.88 on deepening flows..

Very therapeutic listening. Tq bud.

‘ We are going to be literally a money printing machine once they get the gas supply up to speed.’
That equation also being accurate for Cuda.
So a very difficult acquisition.
Then puts the emphasis on AM learning simple people-skills, ie how to entertain punters & ii’s whilst revealing zilch eg. a 3% holding.

Treat the market as being totally corrupt, every time you see a nice buy, then simply consider that the desk that has just sold that buy is then shorting against that buy. That then requires significant event horizons to wipe out the philosophy of repeated desk driven shorts. As seen recently, good winds blow in, but all are then immediately swamped. It currently needs something a wee stronger than just a good wind. Hopefully though AM is putting together the ingredients for a perfect storm. Wether it’s the Pi that pays for those ingredients is still to be seen, hence slow buying at ridiculously cheap prices.