Member Info for dougb189

That’s what every single equation states.
The market though thinks otherwise,
on account of historical data & the prevalence towards black ops.
ie. you & I are just collateral.

AM highlighted the problems of the region, with driver shortages & all the manpower experience having headed south to Texas, which suggests he really can’t go independently seeking new start up Converse County ventures, requiring any new infrastructures. His forte and which suits his style of leadership. The lack of any additional ground support may even be affecting further BFU or Fed Deep progress. Maybe it puts further bias on acquiring that 27%.

The eternal optimist probably realises Cuda need only hang in for a little while longer, till 10,000 cfgd upgrades implemented & injection re-boost takes effect, which would then see them with a significant turn around.
Cuda’s sleight of hand being a Chpt.7/11 write off, of its $70M debt, so I’d imagine senior lender/s will be hedging any extended period of ‘down-time’ v a possible Copl interest.

One of the few scenarios imv that might light the blue paper.
Tallinn become the ‘controlling input’.

At AM’s current commitment level to investors :
Nov1st : ‘Copl pleased to announce now have 85%WI & a flow rate of 2,500 bopd net”
Nov2nd : sp = 35p

Should be AM that try’s getting in touch with his investors.

Can see the positioning putting a tight squeeze on Cuda which also squeezes Tallinn & Bridging.
AM further ups the pressure with a court case throwing doubt on Tallinn’s lien for Cuda’s WI.
Tallinn &/or Bridging &/or Cuda then reciprocate.

Weakest link on our side?
& still reckon that AM may be over-exposed if someone calls an EGM.. 10% c.£5M (small fraction of what’s gone into Cuda).
Suggests imv that he needs an external source of newsfeed, eg. Nigeria or wherever, but a regular something /anything, just to bring the barometer back down & get the Pi’s/ii’s investing again.

Would also contemplate HFB’s ‘sweetheart deal’,
aka the ‘short-term pain for long term gain’
albeit the ‘pain’ would see Copl being accredited 85%WI
whilst paying off Cuda’s outstandings..

Puts Cuda’s creditors into looking at further back-ups..

& having splashed almost $50M between the two of them,
then a £5M stake for a 10% controlling interest in Copl,
would surely have been considered…

Again, not tooo convinced that LOI’s were for anything other than Alberta.

But would be happily swayed by tedoby’s good argument ie AM currently under NDA

‘..Cuda wanting to avoid bankruptcy at all costs..’
is not a given, when one takes in Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 proceedings,
where debt is then written off.

That then leads into the court case, which IMO is primarily about AM exerting pressure onto Tallin, such that he makes them concerned that IF bankruptcy is declared then their fall back plan of having Lien over Wyoming assets, then becomes doubtful.
Leaving Tallinn with zilch.
Leaving Tallinn looking at other ‘offers’..

“… Well if I was the lenders I'd ask myself can do that without copl and just have the asset myself at the end...” been thinking similar over the last 4 weeks, ie. what’s to stop Tallin or Bridging (or even Cuda) putting done £5M & picking up 10%, then calling an EGM ? (Tallin having already spent $13.5M & Bridging having already spent/ lost the best part of $30M).

Which I believe ties in with submariner’s query on ‘how would it look if a Cuda acquisition failed to materialise’ & so would then suspect Copl 58% WI would still see respectable oil flows, generating oodles of extra cash, but that with AM’s consistent radio silence, the very first thought in response to a Cuda deal going south, is the problem as Tiburn emphasised, the constant lack of comms. Which puts a lot of retail & ii investors out on a limb.

Which ties in with could the Cuda lenders possibly do a management take over, as AM generally making himself quite vulnerable from the Pi’s & ii’s perspective AND if an EGM was raised..

AM was in earlier talks with Tallin so perhaps there’s a back up plan to gaining that 27%WI but only whilst bopd is in low figures for if Cuda can’t make the payments, guessing that Tallin will be making some v.loud ‘margin calls’. Once the taps get opened though, Cuda will be independent & raking it in.

& IF Cuda default on their $400k/month,
Tallin are then entitled to carry out a heist,
worthy of a lock, stock & 2 smoking barrels,
to then take lien on their Wyoming assets,
Irrespective of Cuda’s I Quotients.

Cuda’s netback previously at $18
Since then the royalties have increased in line with POO,
So whilst the bopd has been kept stagnant,
Their netback has therefore decreased
& their ability to pay the $400k/month has reduced.

Lol, not saying that AM is worthy of being a Bond villain,
But that is one hell of a squeeze that Cuda are under.

& IF Cuda default on their $400k/month,
Tallin are then entitled to carry out a heist,
worthy of a lock, stock & 2 smoking barrels,
to then take lien on their Wyoming assets,
Irrespective of Cuda’s I Quotients.

Cuda’s netback previously at $18
Since then the royalties have increased in line with POO,
So whilst the bopd has been kept stagnant,
Their netback has therefore decreased
& their ability to pay the $400k/month has reduced.

Lol, not saying that AM is worthy of being a Bond villain,
But that is one hell of a squeeze that Cuda are under.

Interpretation of AM’s recent, aka ‘peaked’ was that there was some good positives :
oft referred to 4000psi being a dangerous working pressure
& then let slip that the ‘reservoir is balanced’.

So currently operating at only twice the previous owner’s injection level,
whilst ‘safety improvements’ are made,
Or until any negotiations are completed.

Is it though, as the previously’same old, same old’ ?
As the desks seem to be no longer even attempting to disguise the transfers.

That would then suggest one of the two parties is v.close to completion,
either the buyer’s influence over the desks has terminated (sp would drop)
Or that the seller’s disposal of significant bulk qty has now been achieved….

Same old, same old ..?? But yet now appears to be almost blatantly telling the market that there is/was a significant sell/buy. Does appear to be a variation in the same old.
Should be an interesting week.

Should be an interesting week ; traders off-loading & Longs acquiring.
Keeping dry powder will be on everyone’s mind,
but guessing that will slip when the monthly pay chits go in.

88 with their 12,500 retail base might be a suitable role model.

c.5.4M shares is a nice gift to oneself ?
I’ll have whatever AM’s having. Lol

Good point.
AM though somewhat of a wildcard.

Is that I can’t comment on his paperwork:
TR1 in for 3% of AST which would then jump between 3 & 10%
whilst CH was connecting up the cross border pipeline,
but was 10% only momentarily.
And the iMac’s totally corrupt the FCA spreadsheets.
Don’t tell HFB. Lol.

Could be that AM waiting on the Canadian MDA to then update…?

HFB could probably do the sums, but the volume does kinda suggest that he’s been accumulating from the UK markets.
Which would then suggest an RNS for 3%
As apposed to 5% for off-shore accounts..

Would guess c.32p