Member Info for dougb189

Many eyes will be on SWP & several will be concerned of any AM manipulation. It is already seen that after much discussion on this BB about the listing of October’s totals of 110,000 bopd, that those figures have now been removed.

Its quite a leap of faith to then say that SWP are totally independent of AM’s shenanigans. There will be a wee bit concern that he continues to misbehave.

10,000 bopd then giving £1.00 points the finger at the next step in AM’s reincarnation, being yet again substantial amounts of confetti.

Would disagree with ‘perfect timing for 22 Nov’.
Could be argued that placings had been occurring since before Cuda’s 15 Nov capitulation.
The 22 Nov RNS then just coincided with the temporary support line at 24p but the end result of all the consecutive poor comms & constant dilutions was a given. P&D but which then also entailed the Pi’s giving up on AM. Hence yesterday’s support email for a HNW placee, now that we are sub 20p.
Again, a total lack of confidence but with quite dangerous far reaching aspects ie 10,000 bood will likely see us at £1.00

Substance usually involved some form of mathematical algorithms, inflated or not, but at least has a reference. LB sadly produced very little references other than hysteria noise, which then washed out any valid points he was making.

LB could be banned if LSE believed he could not produce clarity on his reported new figures and dates.

Appears to be two separate emails, but that Ironside thinks the request by John was for details on yesterday’s posted email, whereas LB is suggesting he received a separate marketing email from Cuda with the new figures & dates that he now mentions.

1st email, appears to be from a HNW Pi (20p placee perhaps) who is on AM’s confidence list & who is perhaps concerned about the dropping sp. The timing of the P&D 22 Nov RNS was actually After the majority of placing had been forward sold & it then facilitated further selling & trying to maintain that new support line at 24p (giving the placees 20%) but which then saw total loss of confidence by all Pi’s & further sell offs.

2nd email, needs LB to expand on (without the usual hysterics).

Would agree with LB on two points, that (1) the 22nd Nov RNS was primarily a pump & dump & (2) that the placings of 20p have done more damage to the sp than any negative shareholders.

Was though the 22 Nov RNS ‘2700 bopd’ a fraud & I don’t believe so :

Nov week 1 avg. 2000 bood
Nov week 2 avg. 2000 bopd
…… the above figures from 15 Nov RNS
Nov week 3 avg. 2350 bopd
…… 1/2 way between the RNS’s from 15/11 & 22/11
Nov week 4 avg. 2700 bopd
…… assuming 22/11 RNS was maintained & not another ‘peak’ P&D reading.

Average for the 4 weeks, then works at 2262 bopd
Which should then show up in the SWP database
for November results as c.67,875 bbl.

Suspect that we should know by end of this week what the SWP latest figures are.

Ps. try to chill LB, your constant hysterics at any price change only highlight how poorly suited you are to playing games on the market. Diversify wee man.

An interesting point raised on the bb during the last week and which was then quickly lost amongst the turkey barn dancing sessions, was the question of :
‘what information can AM divulge to investors that does not impinge on any Cuda dealings?’.

Suggestion might be, that he does divulge small snippets on those assets on the peripherals eg. the ongoing renovations of primary recovery wells at CC, which although only amount to a few extra barrels but which then provides amended profiles to both the (a) dire state of communications & (b) the trust factor in these communications, ie. It would be quite hard to fudge improvement figures (when referenced against Tiburn’s SWP historic tables) and would allow the Pi’s to see how any progress was being made, even if is only 10 to 20% improvements on minor donkeys. In addition (primarily) to creating a wee bit more trust.

Without any input from AM & the prospect of yet more Xmas turkey dances, both putting further downward pressure on the stock, there then needs to be a half way meeting point, even if it’s something relatively trivial. AM is certainly listening but it could be that his hands are severely tied which might then also take out Q1. It can be seen that there has been $5.1M spent on the hardware upgrades SO…would it be useful for another video of what was involved, to then be put together ?

Everyone’s concerns are now on communications & whilst many are still optimistic of a good outcome, say c.5000 to 10,000 bopd, a significant proportion are now asking what effect would any good results have on retail, who have clearly lost patience in addition to the loss of focus on field developments.

The machinery ie the net fixed assets have seen an increase in value, from a 15th September evaluation of $63.9 to the more recent figure of $69.0M. The market analysts recognise that AM has effectively invested $5.1M in those recent upgrades.

Likewise the current figures as per Stockopedia & its access to Thomson Reuters & Refinitv’s analysts (of whom there are approximately 2000) constantly assessing the various companies are as :
Market Cap £33.2M
Enterprise Value £51.7M
Revenue £6.89M

Can be seen that debt sits at around £18.5M ($24.42)
Whilst the revenue $9.0M starts to improve.
The name of the game though is Primary v Secondary Recovery & for which we have install uprated machinery as per the recent $5.1M upgrades to then modify operations from the earlier primary recovery status of drilling wet wells & allowing the reservoir natural pressure of 2500psi to do its thing at a c.6% recovery rate, to the now uprated secondary recovery system which requires that you pump in at a rate above the reservoir pressure (>2500psi) to then achieve a 50% recovery rate of oil in place, which is the average recovery rate seen across the Powder Basin.

Some interesting metrics are inclusive of algorithims showing improving ‘Health Trend’ as per Piotroski’s F-Score and albeit a rather dismal Bankruptcy Risk as per Altman’s algorithms it can though be seen that as each of COPL’s reports are filed that there is an improvement in these metrics. In addition to a whole load of tables as per the wee increase in mechanical assets.

If it was a duster then would have been more beneficial to AM to loudly advertise that, so putting off potential bidders & reducing Cuda’s valuation. The hit on the sp would not have bothered a cold-blooded large fish.

Somewhat sceptical too on any Cuda deal having been completed:

PWC have taken v.active interest in the court proceedings as can be seen by the amount of dockets they have entered & are highly likely main instigator behind the court recognition that the bankruptcy now proceeds as a Chapter 15.
If that then goes ahead it puts Cuda under court protection from being broken up until such time as a resolution is found with the court emphasis on ‘as a going concern’ [which then rings true with John’s opinion that Alberta is also included in the deal].

But as a zillion $$$ company with huge debt problems v £29M oil minnow, then it would suggest that FTI would likely milk the play & also keep options open with respect to a possible future potential $Z customer.

If AM could though pull it off, it would be a masterful play & the least of his worries will surely be Pi’s.

‘…. Lastly she indicated it is the time to think of buying......’

Lol, is that code for, ‘we are due another placing’. ?!

‘still working to resolve safety issues’ would be at the very top of AM’s list, covering both the truthful & possible skullduggeries versions of activity accounts.

Both are highly possible, both are highly plausible.

The upside is we perhaps do then get Cuda on the cheap.
The downside though is that it just further extends AM’s current skill set’s in communicating ie. that no one trusts the written word.

Tiburn’s SWP report presents the bottom line; everyone can see what the initial figures are, so AM can not easily fudge the story as the market suspects he will try to do. He needs to start cleaning up his delivery.

The bb’s are not just about opinions & debate, they also are about sharing. Some guys are trusted, others simply are not, so its about learning to trust who is being sincere when private communications are aired.

* lol, but try… pegged at £1.
Sounds nicer but still a fraction of where we could be at if this was marketed better.
AM’s earlier 23,000 bopd equated to $4.2B

Most Pi’s are probably correlating the recent $8M book-build with the earlier £14M book-build for which half got used on production ($9M to SWP) but the rest of it was simply to provide cash flow liquidity during the lean start up period, covering any initial (& almost always) unexpected costs.
Is difficult trying to pinpoint why the recent $8M was raised other than again to think of yet further liquidity thru yet another ‘lean period’.

Spare cash perhaps for a quick Cuda firesale or perhaps for OPL226 suddenly resurfacing ? Both these ring hollow.
All the forecasted x, y & z scenarios taking in uprated pressures, new stratas, new wells, etc, etc, & even the most recent MDA/RNS’s all seemed to suggest the kitty is doing ok & so at odds with recent placing Unless there is a possibility of an extended period c.2000 bopd going into next year. January’s hedge requires 1057 bopd at $56.58 leaving a thin margin for capex & admin costs. Is there then a perceived further period to the reduced flow rates..

$8M placing Then leaves a further lean period / self-inflicted attrition as most reasonable explanation, which is then tied into Cuda.

AM’s lack of skill-sets in communications (ok, the video was good start) does have one wondering if when we do see c.10,000bopd, will the market have us pegged at 1p, that an mc of c.£200M will be our ceiling ? Without a proper story line (Tiburn’s SWP tables was a god send) then i strongly suspect few will buy into this.

* fiscal year should then see $20M to $25M sales net of royalties.

The ‘health indexes’ should start creeping up.

AM only needs to keep this at 2000 bopd & so will then have doubled Q3 production levels :
Q3. avg. 1077 bopd & $5.2M sales net of royalties, when avg. WTI $70.56

Nov 15 RNS ‘average 2000 bopd’ followed by Nov 22 ‘35% increase’.

The good ship SS Attrition then still looks good whilst continuing to be effectively laid up albeit busy on trying to salvage the remains of Cuda.

Ends the first year of production with c.$15M sales, so not too shabby
apart from being a painful ride for Pi’s.

Don’t reckon that any logic comes into the bids; either AM gets a fire sale or some astute hedge fund picks up.

Conjecture is relevant when the information is incomplete.

But to answer the query ‘ Should we have been doing more drilling CC etcetera ?’ then that question is answered by looking at the information on CC’s production for July thru to September :
July. Oil BBLs 662 & Gas MCF 394
Sept. Oil BBLS 1728 & Gas MCF 864

Was then almost a triple return on the CC oil flow, from the initial MF input & from only a single injection well prior to being throttled back & so could easily be answered that more drilling at CC would indeed be beneficial (Cuda’s plans showed c.40 horizontal wells for CC).

Conjecture though would then be required as to what AM will prioritise next.

They did not sell at 25p specifically, they started selling at 30 - 32p.

The 25p is an estimated average from all their sells over that period.
That is then used in calculating when the $8M was covered.

Every sell after that is then profit for them.
IF they still had say 1M shares to be sold,
then even at 10p that then generates £100k profit.
You can then see that they have already doubled their profit, with the best part of remaining sells (after the $8M target reached) then coming at around c.22p.
Guessing they cleared £1M in profit. C’estvl’vie.

The volume grapths show how many shares were sold on each day & wether or not they were biased towards more buys than sells…as per the Thursday 22nd November when 12.4M shares traded, so perhaps 6M of those were from Tennyson on only one day of trading.

Pretty confident that AM told Tennyson to start behaving, which could then be seen over the last 5 days.

Reckon that tied in with Nigel’s extensive energy sector knowledge, that AM then told Tennyson that if they wish to be apart of the next whip-round of an even larger scale, that they then had to assist in keeping a support price c.20p. Perhaps Liz may now take lead on Wyoming whilst AM diversifies.

The MM’s will still try to play it, trying to generate a few trades, till such time that news is finally delivered. LB & HFB probably nailed it with their ‘close to completion’.