Member Info for Discodave4561

Tesla have also held an energy generation licence since 2020. Unlike YU, gives them the edge but guess they would be targeting domestic customers initially or any customers business or otherwise that has powerwall.

Interesting times!

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2020/06/tesla_motors_limited_-_web_notice.pdf

Looks like they have applied for a licence to supply energy to businesses and domestic customers, IMO it’s competition.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-07/Tesla-Energy-Ventures-Limited-AdvertElectricitySupply-signed.pdf

Ofgem are introducing more regulation concerning smart meters, which also applies to small businesses. Customers can receive £40 minimum if meters aren’t installed within 6 weeks or if they are faulty.

Going on some of their google reviews even if 10% of their installs don’t meet the new standard then it could add up to a few hundred k.

Sparky Pal

Wow don’t flatter yourself. Talk about ego ffs.

I was replying to Scoutingforit, read the post you low life. Why don’t you post up on TET again and laugh and folks who may be underwater, you are lower than a snakes belly and such a liar - thought you were sleeping until September!!!!, go forth scum.

They have missed their revenue forecast and reduced guidance. But they weren’t transparent on this in their last update, market doesn’t like such tactics, but then it’s not the first time is it!.

So unless they’ve improved their margins, how and where?, then how will they meet their profit forecasts?. Not saying they won’t but hey as above we’ve been there before haven’t we.

It’s debatable whether this is indeed “way” undervalued, I’d agree there should be some upside but the market is clearly saying otherwise. IMO unless they instigate a decent buyback, or a special dividend (can’t see that) or demonstrate they actually are proactively looking at acquisitions then this will just drift lower. Caveat to that is unless there’s another black swan event resulting in another energy crisis. This business has had its moment in the sun IMO, growth is slowing at some pace now and even CNA are focussing on their customers and eating their lunch.

No volume, nothing happening here until news and / or the next update in September.

All that cash and not a hint of a decent buyback or an acquisition.

Wouldnt be surprised to see Rawson offloading what shares he has left at some point, he sold nearly 200,000 last May (at 1727p) and currently holds about 93,000.

Yes they definitely forecast FY25 revenue to be £730m to £760m (in their FY24 year end presentation - link below).

So no mention in their latest TU that they will miss revenue forecasts, which IMO isn’t acceptable. That said either a profit warning will be coming along or they have improved margins as they do state that EBITDA and EPS are on target as per current market expectations. Let’s see what they say on 23rd September.

https://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Yu-Group-FY-Results-Presentation-2024.pdf

IPC

You posted the other day with regards to the new Lib note that: “A solid but fairly predictable TU - on track basically for £710m-£730m YE”

But their forecast was £730m to £760m wasn’t it?, so now down £20m to £30m.

Sailor

Rawson is only 50 years old, why would he go from picking up £0.5m to £56k of his own volition?. According to Companies House he has no other appointments other than at YU (okay it’s too early for a data update).

It’s pure speculation on my part but if you can find some info on their “succession plan” for the CFO role other than what they stated this week in a separate RNS then I will likely change my view.

I’ve posted here numerous times that I didn’t rate his forecasting abilities following their FY19 statement that they would make a profit, they didn’t. And now we have a reduction in their forecast revenue for FY25.

Correction, they haven’t increased FY26 revenue, they’ve reduced that too by £19m (FY25 reduced by £17m).

Eps consensus unchanged, which seems odd, oh well time will tell.

Not had enough coffee!

Consensus forecast for FY25 revenue has been reduced from £738m down to £721m.Their own forecast / target was £730m to £760m (mid £745m).

So consensus growth in income now reduced to c 11% from over 15%.

Looks like Rawson has been pushed out IMO, contract lags not allowed for by the looks of it as they've increased Rev forecast for FY26. Revenue recognition issue again by the looks of it!.

Sailor

They live to hand out share options, there’s over 10% of their shares outstanding.

Looks to me that Rawson was pushed out, can’t see anything in terms of their “succession plan”. If it was planned then Rawson wouldn’t have had to negotiate any reduction to his share options IMO, it would have been a golden goodbye or loss of office payment.

Given they are forecast to miss their annual income forecast by some margin then let’s hope the new CFO has a better forecasting model than Rawson.

Sparky Pal

I will hold my hand up wrt the growth in smart meters, yes Centrica for H1 was 113% growth so not as high as YU. Thet expect to increase 200% by year end.

You really don’t deserve such honesty IMO given the constant lies you spout all over the boards, clearly you are very rattled about anything that shows that your beloved YU is definitely not the bees knees or the market leader as you keep stating. British Gas are out to eat Bobbys lunch by the looks of it.

That said everything else is factual and correct, their H1 adjusted EBITDA growth for energy supply to businesses knocks spots off YU’s performance and from an investment point of view, and the measure of quality for a business, it’s their profits that count - not how many meters they ‘ve installed.

Sparky Pal

Why have you posted on the ADVFN TET board laughing at folks?

Wow you really are some low life individual.

Sparky Pal

Another lie

You say I’m filtered, childish reference to “Green boxes”, yet reply to my posting. Strange you use the same childish reference of green boxes just like your other self little pip boy.

You really need to grow up chap,

Sparky

Why the very libellous statement?, you seriously need to prove what you’ve said!.

You can’t read, British Gas smart meters more than doubled.

You can post up the numbers for YU but they aren’t doing as well as British Gas. Adjusted EBITA increased nine fold.

Thought you were going into hibernation again?, yet more lies, you wouldn’t know the truth if it smacked you across the face.

Stick to the subject matter and cut out your lies about me…….okay Jennifer aka newinvestor aka little pip boy :)

Centrica interims.

Small business adjusted EBITDA increased 15x, yes 15x!. However it was driven by a £19m lower bad debt charge, so netting that off it still increased nine fold. Knocks spots off YU!.

They increased business customers by 7000. They are also moving away from larger business customers to focus on smaller businesses, underpinning gross margin expansion and growth in sites.

Their smart meter numbers also more than doubled to 949k from 445k. YU was +179% growth, so again beating YU’s performance.

Clearly British Gas, and others no doubt, are taking share from YU and definitely performing better from a profitability perspective.

Overall though given their (CNA’s) massive integrated portfolio of businesses their revenue and profits were down on H1 last year.

And some still keep banging on about the PE here being too low!

Sailor

Meant to say, the previous small share buyback was funded by the capital recovery cash (cancellation of share premium account of £12.3m) not directly from their cash pile (from memory it was c £87m). So they had £87m cash but decided to raise £12.3m via the capital recovery / reduction to fund the small share buyback and dividends - ask yourself why?

Sailor

This is the link to Paul Scott’s Substack but you have to be a subscriber to see the daily analysis / reports (and I’m not a subscriber, poster Grumpy may be?).

He does a round up video with Paul Hill on Thursdays on VOX markets so he may well mention YU on there.

https://paulypilot.substack.com/p/pauls-daily-podcast-tue-22-july-2025

As for ROC payments see Ofgem link below.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/renewables-obligation-ro/renewables-obligation-ro-suppliers

Sailor

When I said margin will reduce I meant profit margin.

Irrespective of the buying and selling value of the energy their costs are now a lot higher, the more energy they sell the higher the ROC payment , higher level of their debt provision, higher opex costs and higher working capital requirements.

It could have been scale when they first started in 2014 that hindered profitability but I would put it down primarily to how much lower the wholesale energy price was - that’s key, no profits until the energy crisis when from memory the wholesale gas price was over 20x higher than the historical norm, no wonder their profits went ballistic!.

As said before, they have zero diversification to mitigate against periods when energy falls.

It’s not a complicated business, as Paul Scott infers all they do is buy energy and then sell to businesses at whatever profit margin they can muster without hindering growth in market share. They are now in a position whereby market share growth has to compensate for the decline in energy price, there will be an inflection point IMO where market share cannot compensate.

All IMO, DYOR