Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky

Cheers fella.

Yes I’d already checked their website, no holdings RNS though, did they take part in the IPO do you know?, im too lazy to check :)

Any date yet on your £21?, you did imply it should have been weeks ago, never mind, perhaps your £200 will be soon too eh.

Have a happy Easter chap

oh sparky you are a child, along with your green little pip boy monkey.

are you saying amati hold 3%?, so where’s the rns?, just like your false schroders 8.3% but no rns to support that claim (don’t give a rats ass what’s on the yu website, that’s not a legal notification).

the uk isn’t the hub of ai and yes taxes are ridiculous, not my point as well you know, he could of set up a hub in the states, but it’s clear why he chose the uae. if you can’t accept the reasoning, namely a tax dodge for both bobby and the business, but primarily bobby, then you really are living in cloud cuckoo land.

likewise their plan for “strategic growth” had more hokes in it than rab c nesbits strung vest. it was just outlining what most businesses should be doing as part of for the course anyway. but love the spin, £9m extra marketing, oh yeah let’s not forget theor uae ai / tech hub!, to gain the extra 1% over and above what they’d already forecast for.

so your constant ramp about £21, you’ve said soon, put a date on it. yes it may breach £20!at some point, then again it might not, anyone that predicts with certainty like you always do is frankly talking utter ****e, nobody knows the future. explain why £21, justify it on financial metrics etc. it’s easy to ramp any number you want but if you can’t support it then again it’s just ramping ****e, just like ng’s £100. which was the biggest load of crap i’ve ever read in all my years of playing this game, and so many on here fell for it hook line and sinker. unbelievable.

so today’s volume was below the 10 day average and according to sparky, low volume means the price closes down, high volume means it closes up - again absolute nonsense, volume influences liquidity and momentum not whether the share closes up or down, that’s simply down to the number of sells and buys, it’s not rocket science ffs.

have a good evening

sparky

meant to correct more of your lies about what i’ve said, i’ve said it looked like it was heading back to its medium term range of 1450 to 1650 given jpm were no longer supporting the share price.

so you’ve said:

11th feb “will we attack £20 soon”

24th feb “£20 will come soon enough”

25th “£20 breakout will come soon enough”

3rd march “£20 will come eventually”

18th march “£21 soon?

let’s put some facts behind that, on the 10th feb the share price had already hit close to its highs, so obviously it was already attacking 20 as you said (after the fact), then you kept on saying it but it was all down to just jpm buying not the market per se. then you said forget 20 it will go straight to 21 soon. so when exactly is it going to go straight through 20 resistance and hit 21?, date please.

you’ve also posted that this years numbers will blow the doors off, or words to that effect, well i’m not too certain about that. could well be that they have picked up some higher contracts but it’s all complete guesswork really despite you saying it’s going to happen, tell me, are your rose tinted glasses also capable of seeing the future?, lottery numbers please.

all the best, please try to keep to the subject matter if you can. you may not like my views but tbh tough ****e :)

Dear Sparky, at it again!.

So more directors selling their options, and the business keeps on topping up their share options pot. Last time I looked options equated to c 10% of the issued shares

As for this UAE Bobby hub, it’s a farce IMO, just a tax dodge for the CEO and the business, but clearly it’s primarily to benefit Bobby. If folks want to think that it’s all critical in terms of implementing their very wishy washy plan, that was simply business as usual IMO, then that’s up to them. I’m just posting my views which aren’t clouded or obscured to the obvious because of very heavily rose tinted glasses that you in particular Sparky wear 247 365, smell the coffee chap. The UAE hub is purely for tax purposes. The USA and China are way ahead of the UAE in terms of AI and tech, but hey, Bobby certainly ain’t going to China, and why not the USA?……errr tax! I’m sure Bobbys renumeration £1.2m will keep increasing now quite substantially if he can get zero tax on it going forwards as a non uk resident. Oh yeah and not to mention his luxury mansion as relocation expenses!. Greed, nothing more.

As for folks selling, why are you always slagging folks off for selling yet your beloved Bobby sold £5.9m, and Directors keep selling options, never buying on the open market. Besides, for buyers there has to be sellers ffs.

It’s a decent company to be trading if there is an energy crisis, after all they need wars to make a profit!.

Some on here want WW3, blackouts etc etc, so how will YU fare then?, customers going out of business, no oil and gas available for their customers, mmmm.

This has zero momentum because JPM have stopped buying / closing their short.

Did you buy more Sparky?, you keep saying it’s cheap and it’s the best share in the entire planet, plus you reckon £20 soon earky Feb, then you said £21 soon 18th March. Care to define what soon is in Sparky world.

Bobby selling was always a big red flag IMO.

It does look like the UAE have and are investing a lot into AI, but they are behind the US and China.

But IMO Bobby chose the UAE purely for tax benefits, I imagine both for YU but primarily for himself. His salary will have lower tax and no tax if he becomes a non-uk tax resident, which can be achieved if he spends less than 46 days in the uk, which I'm guessing is his intention.

According to AI (yes I know!, folks as ever DYOR) then -

“Generally, a non-UK resident living in the UAE does not pay UK Capital Gains Tax (CGT) when selling shares in a UK-listed company (e.g., on the London Stock Exchange). Non-residents are typically only liable for UK CGT on UK residential property or "property-rich" companies.”

Sorry but IMO the talk of the,UAE hub is all BS, it's for the benefit of Bobby.

A founder, CEO, major share holder of a UK based energy supplier setting up an office in the UAE for him to spend most of his time there, is a joke. No issue if he wants to move to some tax haven, but this will be funded by the business for his benefit, why not set up an office in the US?, nah no tax benefit for him. Also why not just send someone like Adam Young (Digital Marketing and Sales Director), who led the move to digital by default - because it’s primarily to serve CEO greed IMO.

Tp be clear, they spent an extra £7m in customer acquisition costs at in FY25 v FY24.

Thinking about it, if they continue to invest an extra £7m pa on marketing (customer acquisition) , so based on the FY25 gain of 0.8%, for 3 years that could be +2.4% getting them to 5.9%, if they increase marketing costs at a rate of 7m pa, and then the £9m will gain an extra 1%, then they are there at c 7%. In my mind it makes sense now. But I still maintain they would have achieved their 6% by 2029 (assuming 0.8`% increase pa with £7m uplift pa in marketing costs)., so as posted they are investing an extra £9m over 3 years to gain the extra 1%. To say they will double share to 7% isn’t exactly an untruth, but they could have said they were investing anyway to achieve 6% (as per their previous forecast), but with the extra investment they are looking at 7%.. Don’t blame them for spinning things but IMO the market has seen through it.

Sparky

Yes I know it’s a forecast, it’s their ambition to hit 7% market share, and yes you either believe them or you don’t. Personally I’ve no issue that they may hit 7%, my issue is the plan to achieve that has zero merit IMO, all was said is what they are or should already be doing. My point is that it sounds a lot better to tell the market our aim now is to double market share by 2029, the truth is they were forecasting 6% by c 2029, so the bare facts are they will only be targeting an extra 1% market share.

I’m just not getting how the investment they’ve identified correlates with what they already invest in the business and wjat they spend directly to acquire new customers, it’s circa £24m pa, so are they saying this £9m plus is what’s required to gain 1%?over the next ev years?, well IMO that’s exactly what they are saying but they don’t divulge that £24m pa has been invested to stand still in terms of what their market share is currently. That’s all I’m saying.

Tbh you’d believe anything the business and their brokers say without question, well that quite a naive and dangerous stance when it comes to investing. Just saying that I do think you should take your rose tinted glasses off occasionally. You never really seem to actually have an opinion of your own, it’s usually just copy and paste type numbers and facts gleaned from the business or the brokers. But the brokers are paid to say what the business wants them to say, they are not independent analysts.

Anyway, the market seemed okay’ish with the results and outlook, will confess I’m impressed by their uplift in revenue, but again don’t get the impact on profits, but they know the impacts better than me.

As for you posting elsewhere that I’m angry and I hate YU, and that I lost everything in 2018 (no I did okay thanks, lovely shorting banks) and the old chestnut that you think I’m an ex employee - is that the ex CFO?. Well Sparky such comments are very silly and demonstrate more about you than they do me. So please just try to be civil, I will try too.

Sparky you do make me laugh with your lies - at one point you said I worked for JPM, then I was the ex CFO (the one before Rawson), then you said I was Paul Scott, you are something else.

Now you say I’ve missed the boat on a 0.5% rise, not even worth me getting out of bed chap. Do you not understand trading, I’m not a ichimoku day trader watching signals every minute or so, I’m a momentum trader, and you do know what momentum is don’t you?, I mean you know everything about everything (oh hang on you and your green monkey did isn’t even know what pips were in spread betting).

Again why am I envious, I’m truly pleased if anyone is sitting on a decent profit here, So instead of always pisting lies about what I’ve posted and constantly having snipes about how I’m feeling etc etc, why don’t you post up how they are going to get an extra 3.5% market share by only investing over 3 years a fraction of what they invest now per annum (£19m in FY25) to acquire more customers, and based on a plan that doesn’t seem to be anything other than business as usual?, love to know your thoughts backed with some logic rather than just saying “but Bobby says it will happen so it will happen”.

Oh dear Sparky,

Sorry to say I’m not angry, why would I be, this go up on momentum I go long, it falls on sustained momentum I go short. It’s a leveraged bet with double the odds of being correct, why should that make me angry?, from your posting it sounds to me like you expected this to “lift off”, to “blow the doors off”, to issue a mega uplift in this years profits, blah blah blah.

You’ve been saying £21 now for nearly a month, still nowhere near.

As for you professing to know more about geo politics in the Middle East, Ukraine, Russia, China, USA, now Taiwan if not the world, more than anyone else on the planet, sorry but you are not a world renowned expert, you know what we all know - war invariably hits oil, gas etc is correlated with the price of oil, not rocket science. As for your boasting, tbh it’s embarrassing.

Now back to YU, So you believe that spending less than 1% of their 3 year income will gain 3.5% market share, really!. No, it will gain them an extra 1% market share (from their previous forecast of 6%?by c 2029) to 7% by 2029. If investing £9m over three years gains 3.5% then why the fcuk haven't they been investing that much every chuffing year, to gain 10.5% in 3 years?. And you believe Bobbys very wishy washy outline of what his plan is, sorry but I don't.

Their overheads are generally £32m pa, they increased marketing by £7m last year, yes £7m to gain more market share and did they say how much it is now?, don't recall them saying (correct me if I'm wrong I'm sure you will). So an uplift of 58% in costs to gain more customers / market share and they haven't said how much they've gained but £9m over 3 years will gain 3.5%. They also invest c £5m pa in the business as par for the course but every perma bull believes c £3m pa will gain c 1.2% pa, doesn't add up. So what's their market share now?.

This strategic growth plan had zero meat on the bones, just business as usual IMO, well apart from Bobbys UAE tax haven.

Love to hear your detailed and knowledgeable explanation of the reality of what their plan actually is and how the fcuk it will deliver what they hope to achieve.

All IMO DYOR the caveat being if there is another energy crisis and clearly YU couldn't fail to benefit

Last point Sparky:

“I do. It get your logic on profits warning, they are investing £9 million to effectively double the size, not taking out fat loans self funding so a short term hit to double the size”

Again none of the perma bulls mention the clear in black and white statement that PBT will now be lower than forecast, the same as FY25 is not what was forecast, in anyone’s book that’s a profit warning. The sweetener is the “doubling” of market share, as I’ve said IMO it’s just 1% more than they originally planned for (which is a fact).

As for your constant mention that they don’t need to use debt, let me remind you the £15m of debt to fund smart metering whose installs were woefully down despite the investment and their failure to recruit sufficient engineers (with a significant increase in to their wages bill - no doubt funded by DEBT).

Then we now have the new funding arrangement set up with HSBC, why?. because as I’ve constantly posted their cash isn’t all distributable because of their liquidity covenant, but hey a £162m uplift in forecast income, all that supposed cash generation but just in case let’s arrange some debt facility, mmm.

Only 5% of their increased income, only 1% of their total forecast income for just this year alone is being invested, it’s not a massive amount is it, to gain 3.5% market share, nope, it’s to gain an extra 1%. It simply doesn’t add up does it. They could have afforded could they not to invest £9m every year (not 3) and gain 10.5% over a 3 year period going on their assumptions, IMO it’s all very wishy washy.

Sparky

Meant to add, I’m not mad, have my psychiatrists letter to prove it! lol.

Because I have a different opinion that you disagree with there’s no need for personal insults, but then you always have resorted to that.

So your posting saying they were going to announce a JV or an acquisition and state they were going to blow the profit forecast for this year out of the water wasn’t in your view a ridiculous thing to say?.

And that’s just a small sample of all your wild predictions (ramps).

Anyway, let’s see, obviously if the war generates another crisis then all bets are off and I reserve the right to change my opinion!.

They may be the fastest growing in terms of customers but their not the fastest growing financially - posted up BG numbers v YU and there’s no competition, BG are performing way better.

My point, which you always fail to see and probably always will, is their forecasts are just that, there is no guarantee they will achieve them, just like they didn’t hit their Rev forecast and cash for last year, just like they didn’t hit profit warning for this year. What I don’t get is all of a sudden (could be higher price contracts feeding through like you said) they have increased Rev by £162m, are investing a relatively small sum (given their cash pile) but margins are hit and profit is forecast to be down £3m from original forecasts. So income up £16 but pbt down, why?. From all the wishy washy talk by Bobby on what the £9m will do it doesn’t add up IMO. The plan has zero meat on the bones. And as I’ve posted, but get PI points, they were targeting 6% without any mention of investment but I’d assume they would always be investing on efficiency improvements, process tweaks, cost cutting, etc etc, but now they feel the need to invest a relatively small amount (over 3 years and v ssles of £862 plus) just to gain the additional 1% they were aiming for in the first place (I thought prior to the 6% folks were talking 7%-8%?).

Yes things change, and yes the caveat is another energy crisis changes everything - that aside I’m struggling to understand their forecasting and the strategic growth plan (convenient a doubling of share sounds a lot better than we are now targeting 7% instead of 6%). We know Bobby can make false promises and so can his CFO’s!.

Sparky

Another lie, I never said 1440, I said it looked like it was heading back to its medium term range of 1450 to 1650. And it came close didn’t it.

C’mon Sparky you’ve made so many calls over the last week or so that have been all bull. You said £21 soon about 3 weeks ago.

Yes 11% of switchers, but how many of their customers switched to someone else, of course they won’t divulge that will they. As for the fastest growing SME supplier that was a few years back and as I’ve posted the financial metrics in terms of growth from BG knocks spots off YU.

How about the profit warning? How about the bad debt going up, how about the Rev and cash miss?.

Is that your green monkey following you around as ever?

Sparky’s posts:

“All feeds through to YU with rev and profit about to soar in H2 26 onwards , onthly revenue from here on in will accelerate huge amounts currently 45m could be 70-90m a month soon who knows.’

No soaring of profits for FY26, and as a reminder they missed revenue and cash forecasts for FY25. As I’ve said numerous times their forecasting skills leave a lot to be desired.

Sparky

You were posting that there was going to be an acquisition or JV announced, more recently that they were going to uplift their numbers today based on H2 being mega numbers.

You won’t even agree what’s in black and white, that profit for this year will be flat, so rather that a consensus forecast of c £52m PBT it will now on;y be £49m, despite Rev forecast to increase c23%, why is thatSparky?.

Please borrow someone’s non rose tinted glasses and read what they actually said today:

"Adjusted EBITDA and PBT in line with 2025, with growth of underlying profitability tempered by overhead investment to support future growth opportunity

Some very iffy forecasts IMO, the new CFO clearly trying to impress.

So now FY26 revenue is forecast to increase by £162m (the mid f/cast range), but profit is forecast to be flat, so using 7% pbt margin (FY25) LFL theur profit should be £60m, instead it will be flat, c £49m, down £11m by investing over 3 years £9m+.

Doesn’t seem to make sense to me, investing £9m in a buyback at say £17 would increase bottom line earnings by at least 3%, okay that’s a one off but they are cash rich (so everyone keeps saying!) so could repeat, or even use debt to fund, not something I like but lots of companys have debt and do buybacks.

Anyway, Bobby knows best eh. Let’s hope his wishy washy plan can capture c +1.2% market share pa for the next 3 years WITHOUT destroying profit margin (which so far doesn’t look like that’s possible - but will admit I’m still struggling to understand the considerable increase in income above and beyond theor investment but profits down / flat).

PI

Yes it could be front loaded but it’s Opex not Capex and for improved efficiencies blah blah blah so I still don’t see why with an uplift of 10% in forecast revenue should the investment reduce earnings by c 3% (based on FY 26 original consensus). That must be hammering their margins, sorry but I don’t get it and they haven’t really explained sufficiently what their Investmemt plan is, why have they increased forecast revenue should the so much and more importantly why such an impact on profitability.

Yes I have a negative bias here but no perma bulls will even accept that today they have issued a profit warning ffs, yes they plan to double market share by 2029, but that’s not much different from what they have previously said they would achieve with no mention of having to invest to achieve it. Okay things change, but it was obvious their growth rates were and would be slowing as a consequence of some energy price normalisation, and all of a sudden they realised that and it looks to me the penny has dropped too late and they’ve hurriedly come up with some wishy washy plan. If so cash generative why organise bank funding (I guess some RCF although not read in detail yet), and I’ve said for some time that investing with debt as they have with smart metering, flagged IMO they would struggle to keep within their liquidity covenant at some point.

Anyway, I will keep trading whichever way momentum takes it but I still (Iran war caveat) maintain that longer term this will struggle.

Typo - given g them 7% (not 3.5%, bloody auto correct.