Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky Pal

How old are yoy ffs?, you get so agitated like a little child spitting it’s dummy out.

You post utter crap, I’ve never said CNA was worth 20p or anything of the kind. Post it up, on second thoughts post up everything else you say I’ve posted.

How about your claims - that Miton were buying when they were selling, like at every TU you ramp saying they will blow the doors off only for it to be sold off, you even posted here that it’s worth £200, that nobody knows more about the Middle East, Ukraine, Russia, etc than you, you said they would be closing the straits of Hormuz. You’ve posted lots of opinions and views that haven’t come to fruition. You also admitted you don’t know what liquidity means and constantly keep lying that I’ve said they’ve got no cash.

Don’t think you are actually capable of taking on board any alternative views at all. You live YU despite the fact you don’t even hold the stock anymore.

Run along I’m bored with your constant personal attacks and out and out lies.

How many folks bought here on the back of NewGacky and SNN ridiculous forecast of £100 a share when they have 8% market share?, I can think of more than one that was suckered by such ramps!. Some even held SNG until it delisted, hey chopper!.

Anyway, so going on the aforementioned ridiculous statements by NG and SNN, that would mean their 6% market share forecast would equate to a ridiculous target price of £75 a share!. That’s how chuffing stupid their forecasts were, they assumed energy would remain at the peak levels attained due to the energy crisis.

Where are they now?, sold up ages ago would be my guess.

Sparky Pal

From memory it was a 7%-8% market share I believe I was dismissive about. Could you post up where I knocked 6% market share.

If it was 6% I will hold my hand up and admit I got that wrong, but they have t hit 6% yet have they!.

I’ve noticed you have a habit of posting up false info about what I’ve actually said. Just like someone else on here who said I was here shorting from 200p, which is utter garbage as I’ve proven :)

Typo that’s £21 consensus TP. Somehow Mr Market isn’t going along with that no matter what their broker says (£26 pmsl).

Should add, you posted here you believe it should be £200, guess it was in jest but it’s hard to know given how blinkered you are.

Yes I know I’m predominantly negative, but I have accepted that the company did well on the back of someone else’s help = Mr Putin, but that’s my overall game plan, what goes up based on something not generated fundamentally by the business itself, must come down, eventually. Hey but who knows, nobody can predict the future can they. But YU’s significant decline in growth rates definitely shows it’s getting harder and harder to sustain . Hence IMO the need for investment just to hit FY26 numbers (in March let’s see if they increase expectations following implementation of their investment strategy).

Have a nice evening

Sparky Pal

You are something else, all this bitterness, it’s not good for you chap. And no the idiot Uber is filtered, have it eating out of my hand.

Revenue miss, cash miss, and eps not confirmed, but even if they hit consensus is virtually zero growth. Revenue is vanity profit is sanity.

Did you like Centrica’s new strategy?, seemed to be working great for them, EBITDA was up 15 fold.

Did look into what MoneySpider mentioned, looks like they can and are undercutting the market norm, new disrupters in the energy supply space. Cutting out the wholesale middleman.

Oh dear, mentioning TEP again which is not comparable to YU I’m afraid so don’t quite understand why you keep mentioning it.

So, paid analysts and brokers have a target price of w1 pounds for YU. A forecast PE of circa 10x, but IMO that’s too high for a non growth (profit growth) company, particularly as they have zero IP, zero moat, zero diversification, and simply buy energy from Shell and sell on to customers. As Fuse have shown, why use a middleman!.

Did you have a nice holiday?, your pal little pip boy said this would be 18 last week, can’t even break 17 at the moment. No TR1s and JPM hanging in there at the moment. Perhaps waiting for March and how they propose to fund this investment strategy!.

All the best

Grow up ffs

Sparky Pal

Just for you, from Centrica interims:

“In business energy supply, included within British Gas Energy and CBS, we continue to pivot the

portfolio away from larger Industrial and Commercial customers towards smaller businesses,

underpinning gross margin expansion and growth in sites. Coupled with stronger operational

performance, this underpins confidence in the £100m - £200m sustainable operating profit range for

Bord Gáis Energy and Business energy supply.”

They are after Bobby boys lunch!

Let’s post up some facts eh.

YUs growth in profits was purely due to the energy crisis, prior to that they were also loss making. Think apart from one anomalous year when then made a few million if I remember right. But bear in mind who the CFO was then and what happened!.

The last TU showed that they will miss their FY25 revenue and cash forecasts and as yet have not confirmed underlying eps will meet consensus, which even if they do will show flat growth at best.

You keep posting the same old same old so thought I’d do likewise.

Hope you had a great holiday.

Sparky Pal

I’ve posted previously that Fuse is loss making and something I wouldn’t touch even if I could.

Can nobody post anything here without being attacked by you, jeez give it a rest ffs.

Fuse has been going since 2022, what was the growth of YU in its first 4 years, don’t recall it was anything anywhere near what Fuse has done but I’m sure you will correct me.

I’ve simply posted the comparisons with YU for FY24 which was the latest accounts available for Fuse.

You are fixated with your beloved YU, that’s very dangerous.

Green box.

Wouldn’t really make too much difference IMO as nothing of value in any of your postings.

If I recall you once posted that NewGackys and SNN postings of a forecast target price of £100 was only said in jest, well chap that’s rubbish. They were both serious about this hitting £100 a share, and if you could be bothered to do any research at all you would know that it was serious. Completely absurd IMO but nobody challenged it apart from myself, absolutely nobody and now you are saying it was in jest!, unbelievable. Just for your info NewGacky posted this on 17th July 2024:

He know better than us where this share price is going! I am in full agreement with SNN, this company if it gets to 8% market share of the B2B energy business will be doing £10 EPS per year, and if you price that conservatively on 10x p/e you get to £100 share price. It will get there more slowly if BK holds onto all his shares, but it will get there. Why sell them down here to speed the process up. I've been on this for 5 1/2 years. I am happy to hold.

Why didn’t you challenge it?, where do you think NewGacky is now?, do you believe he / she still holds YU?, says it all really about you. :)

Unfortunately with this site without logging in you see crap filtered posts!.

One should try doing some basic research before one shows themselves up.

MS used to hold this stock I believe and thus was bullish, he / she is now posting views, they may be interpreted as somewhat negative but it’s still a valid opinion.

Those that simply resort to childish comments because they don’t like those views is clearly demonstrating their own lack of foresight and intelligence. Go do some research and stick to the subject matter, thanks in advance.

spider

ignore little pip boy, he never posts anything useful about the subject matter, just childish comments.

they seem to be growing their customer base at a much greater rate than yu.

but it’s loss making, their business model may well be take market share even if not profitable in the short term.

yu business model depends solely on margin with a third party (shell) with minimal diversification and a somewhat constrained customer base. with british gas clearly stating too that they are now focussing on supplying businesses (their ebitda increased 15 fold in this sector, last year i think from memory).

therr is also zero guarantee that shell will extend their contract in 3 years, then yu may have to find a substantial amount of cash collateral. plus they have only been profitable thanks to mr putin.

fuse energy supply ltd

fy24

rev up 8 fold (yu up 40%)

customer accounts up 5.7 times (yu up 65%)

bull **** trustpilot 4.6 (yu 3.8)

loss of £5.8m (loss increased by c £2m) yu profitable fy24 up 12% to pbt of £44.5m.

so fuse may well take some custom off yu, but yu are still growing share. but imo it’s clear that their bottom line profits aren’t growing anywhere near as much as they were when they benefitted from gas price increasing massively. for fy25 they will miss the revenue forecast, and the cash forecast (broadly in line translates to a small miss) and consensus eps forecast is virtually flat and they will confirm in march.

Little pip boy you are. How’s Neil your Pizza delivery boy getting on?. I heard he lost his job.

You have posted this was going to hit £18 following the TU, still waiting for it to have a go at resistance at 17.

All the best

Thanks, but I do have a job!.

Let’s list your gaffs and lies that you have posted elsewhere, starting with your posting during a closed period that directors were buying, then the constant spouting of an imminent TR1, then your blatant lies about myself - was not here at 200p unfortunately, it’s documented I went long from around 1025 and a lovely trade that was, then short on the sell on news dip/s. But the best lie from you was those two 10k trades you said (after they were printed) were yours, but they were not buys but sells!.

Me thinks your lies constitute spamming :)

Sparky Pal

You will never get it, you will never accept that their earnings growth rate has fallen iff a cliff (from circa +520% to zilch). That energy normalisation is now hitting their profitability (they mention normalisation and energy hasn’t yet fully normalised IMO- yes I believe it will, don’t know when because I’m not a genius and expert like yourself). You will never accept that their cash isn’t all available for investing, you will never accept that they became profitable because of the energy crisis, you will never accept that this business has virtually zero diversification which increases its risk in terms of an investment, you will never accept that Smart metering targets and their forecasts are in jeopardy because they can’t get the staff, etc etc etc. Yes it’s the bear case , I leave the constant ramping to yiur good self.

Sparky Pal

As for your constant jibberjabber about large buy trades, let’s break this down for you, if there are more buys than sells the price goes up, more sells than buys the price goes down. This has only gone up marginally (c 1.3%) post the jump due to the Stocko NAP tip. Hardly a whoosh that up said would happen. So volume has been what double /treble the average and the price has hardly moved ffs.

As for Schroders, I’m simply stating that there has been NO TR1. Is that correct or not?.

For the last time, a growth stock IMO is fundamentally one whose underlying earnings are regularly increasing and at a decent rate. YU FY25 consensus eps growth rate is flat.

Enjoy your holiday. Try chilling out.

Sparky Pal

Getting all aggressive again, you do make me laugh.

The 213p is PanLibs forecast, consensus is 210 which shows no growth. So can you confirm, PanLib are saying eps will be in line with their forecast or consensus forecast?. I’m referring to growth in the context of earnings eps, that’s what this gets rated on. I’ve said revenue etc is increasing but that mean little if their underlying earnings (eps) isn’t growing and it’s not. Don’t know why you can’t understand that basic concept of investing.

They said:

· A clear strategy to step up our investment in FY26 will underpin our growth plans and increase market share over the next three years. Further details will be provided at the FY25 results

So I’m assuming, and why not, that their investment isn’t going to result in beating FY26 forecasts otherwise they would have stated that. So investing to hit FY26 forecasts and potentially from there on in to improve growth. But that’s sone time away isn’t it.

To repeat, because you always do, they missed Rev forecast, cash will be a miss too, SP Angel are misquoting net cash (it’s gross cash) . And there’s no indication if they will hit their FY25 eps, yes they will hit EBITDA but finance interest will be up, tax will be up, depreciation will be up and amortisation will be up by about 30% IMO. Not saying they will not hit 210p, but who knows as they haven’t said, will know in March.

Looks like SP Angel are contradicting themselves, in their outlook they state a forecast net cash £106m, that’s gross cash not net cash, according to theor cash flow forecasts net cash is £96m and YU have said it’s broadly in line, so less than £96m. That’s a decent increase of 17%, but last year it increased 2.5 times.

Yes most metrics are still in growth but eps is forecast to be flat (and that’s the all important metric that it will be rated on), going on the consensus and still not heard from Sparky about PanLib notes on earnings. And not surprisingly the rate of growth has fallen off a cliff as the benefit of the energy crisis rolls over.

Sparky Pal

What’s FD?

That’s Pan Libs forecast, but what did they say about their eps?. Commentary please.

Me thinks you are avoiding answering.

No whoosh pop so far.

A revenue miss and likely a cash miss too (broadly in line is usually a miss otherwise they’d say it was actually in line). And now having to invest just to hit FY26 forecasts.

Sparky Pal

Would you mind posting up what Pan Lib said about FY25 eps, or can you confirm whether or not they did mention FY25 eps. You’ve posted a lot from the note, but if you don’t post up anything about eps then I’d assume it wasn’t mentioned. Thanks.

So they missed their cash forecast but apparently they have £30m spare cash available. So would they have had more available to invest I wonder. But what bugs me is why use £15m of debt to fund Smart metering?, this £30m was presumably available at their interims when they increased their level of debt?. Seems a bit odd to me that’s all. Particularly as £30m of share buybacks would have generated a circa 12% increase in eps, now that would have done wonders for the share price too. Would any inorganic investment immediately be earnings enhancing to the tune of 12%?, I very much doubt it.