Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky Pal

How old are you ffs.

Yes I may have said 50p, that’s was the average there abouts before the energy crisis. The recent rise clearly has been thanks to Trump. It could go higher it could fall back short term noise.

You were also posting this is worth 200 pounds, were you not. You were definitely in agreement with 100 pounds constantly ramped here by New Gacky and ShareNicelyNow (where are they now I wonder).

So did Pan Lib say whether they have hit their eps forecast for FY25?. You seem to be shying away from that bit of vital data. So did they mention it or not?.

Sparky Pal

Nobody can foresee the future price of energy, not even you. Their growth has stalked because of energy normalisation, they’ve said that themselves ffs.

You say cash is king, I agree, so why did they take out a loan for £15m for Smart metering investment!.

Pan Lib say £30m of their net cash is available for the investment?, is that what they have said?. Have to take your word for that.

Let’s see what they say in March eh. It’s still obvious that they need to invest in order just to hit FY26 forecasts, that says it all.

Sparky Pal

You do need to put your personal hatred towards me aside. I don’t give a rats ass tbh if the share price rockets to your £200 fantasy prediction or falls, I will and have traded momentum in both directions and my biggest return was the upward momentum from Oct 2023 to April 2024. For me it’s not personal, unlike yourself.

That aside, I’m posting my views which have been consistant. You can choose to ignore what the business is doing and what they are saying but they are clearly saying they need inorganic growth investment in order to hit this years forecasts. Which is a potential 6% uplift in earnings, assuming they meet FY25 eps forecasts (which we won’t know until March). Their market share is just an aspiration, a target, and fair okay yes they may achieve that. But it means very little if they can’t sustain profitability and growth in their bottom line.

I’ve posted the investment could actually be funded via debt, which IMO will not be received too positively.

You say they have £30m cash available for their investment, where did you get that figure from? or is it just your opinion, just like you have posted here that the share price will hit 200 pounds!. Post up some supporting evidence they could be using £30m cash to meet their investment strategy. Otherwise it’s as valid as me saying they have no available cash (which you’ve stated that’s what I’ve said when I’ve said nothing of the kind, I’ve always said not all of their cash is available - due to other liabilities, ie ROC, WC, their liquidity covenant etc). Please stop lying about what I’ve said.

Reading the TU again: Our forward contract book remains very strong providing Management with confidence that the Group will, following the proposed investment in our growth strategy, perform against all key financial performance indicators in FY26.

So my take on that is they are saying they need to invest in order to meet their FY26 forecasts. Which ones they define as key is unclear. Let's assume it's profits and eps (as that's the primary indicator). Current consensus is eps will grow 6% based on them hitting their FY25 consensus forecast, which as yet has not been confirmed by the business (or possibly by their house broker notes- Sparky hasn't posted eps despite posting everything else).

Okay it's still growth, but 6%, not exactly shooting the lights out, think investors will seek better risk reward elsewhere IMO. As I've posted since day one, as energy pricing normalises fully they will need to grow at a proportionally higher rate just to stand still. Then the available cash comes into play, that's if they are going to invest cash, it could be increasing their debt like they have done for their investment in Smart metering (which I assume is not doing too well - the job vacancies still outstanding and customer reviews tend to imply that is the case),

I've never said, despite Sparkys false statements, that they have zero net cash, I've said not all of their cash is available to invest and it's not nor never will be. When / if the contract with Shell isn't extended they will need collateral, as per their previous terms with SmartestvEnergy, remember that was 50m pounds for a lot less energy than they require now. So they will always, or should, be very prudent with their cash balance in order to mitigate the possible scenario that Shell do not extend their contract.

Will be very interesting to see how much cash if any they are having to invest to hit FY26 forecasts, or indeed how much additional debt they will take out if not funded solely by their

Typos that should be FY26 not FY27

Sorry Will re-post

Reading the TU again: Our forward contract book remains very strong providing Management with confidence that the Group will, following the proposed investment in our growth strategy, perform against all key financial performance indicators in FY26.

So my take on that is they are saying they need to invest in order to meet their FY26 forecasts. Which ones they define as key is unclear. Let's assume it's profits and eps (as that's the primary indicator). Current consensus is eps will grow 6% based on them hitting their FY25 consensus forecast, which as yet has not been confirmed by the business (or possibly by their house broker notes- Sparky hasn't posted eps despite posting everything else).

Okay it's still growth, but 6%, not exactly shooting the lights out, think investors will seek better risk reward elsewhere IMO. As I've posted since day one, as energy pricing normalises fully they will need to grow at a proportionally higher rate just to stand still. Then the available cash comes into play, that's if they are going to invest cash, it could be increasing their debt like they have done for their investment in Smart metering (which I assume is not doing too well - the job vacancies still outstanding and customer reviews tend to imply that is the case),

I've never said, despite Sparkys false statements, that they have zero net cash, I've said not all of their cash is available to invest and it's not nor never will be. When / if the contract with Shell isn't extended they will need collateral, as per their previous terms with SmartestvEnergy, remember that was 50m pounds for a lot less energy than they require now. So they will always, or should, be very prudent with their cash balance in order to mitigate the possible scenario that Shell do not extend their contract.

Will be very interesting to see how much cash if any they are having to invest to hit FY27 forecasts, or indeed how much additional debt they will take out if not funded solely by their cash.

Sparky Pal

You are unbelievable. So you are now saying that pis aren’t investors!, the free float has hardly changed, where there’s buyers there has to be sellers and that includes institutional investors, simples.

There has been more sellers than buyers over the past year, hence the sp is DOWN nearly 14%.

You fail to grasp the basics IMO.

I accept that YU has growing income, meter points blah blah blah but the key financial is earnings, eps, which is at best flat.

Post up what PanLib said about underlying eps in their note, did they even mention it, if they did why not post that up.

The article from IC ref the TU sums it up quite accurately IMO.

Electricity and gas company Yu Group (YU.) went from a £30mn company to a £300mn company on the back of soaring energy prices in 2022 and 2023. Using that base, its small and medium business supply focus has kept sales climbing, although earnings growth has been hit by the much more stable energy prices in the past two years. Yu reported sales growth of 9 per cent in the first half, ending 30 June, to £341mn, and adjusted Ebitda growth of 4 per cent, to £22.9mn. This second figure compares to a 50 per cent uptick last year. Investors have sold off this year as growth has slowed, sending the share price down a fifth year to date and 5 per cent on Tuesday morning. But businesses continue to sign on to Yu – contracted revenue climbed a quarter to £1.2bn as of 30 June. The dividend was also up 16 per cent to 22p. AH

Sparky Pal

What are you saying I lied about?, I think you are losing the plot.

They missed the revenue forecast and earnings are likely to be flat or possibly a miss. You tell me!, dies the PanLib note even mention eps?, because going on your postings you refer to almost every number apart from the key one that the market fundamentally focuses on, earnings, and not bull EBITDA but eps. This is not a earnings growth stock anymore hence the sell off over the last year or so.

Sparky Pal

You must be so so desperate and disappointed with that TU. Never seen so much BS in a pathetic effort to try and exaggerate what in essence was a very lack lustre TU.

THEY MISSED THEIR REVENUE FORECAST FFS. No mention of their contract order book. EBITDA is bull, it’s eps that’s key and even if they hit that it’s flat, no growth.

Oh and despite all your claims about all these alleged big buy trades the share price hasn’t mid Ed. The dodgy UT means this will gap down tomorrow.

The share price movement is dictated by the trades nit what a ramper posts up on a BB. Jeez not read so much crap.

Meant to add, customer points up 48%, but no mention how much equivalent energy supplied.

From an earnings perspective this is not a growth stock anymore. As posted numerous times, with normalisation and higher value contracts rolling over their market share and revenue growth rates need to be proportionally a lot higher, running to stand still.

Final point, Bobby still hasn’t hit his promise of being more communicative with the market, no mention on their website of today’s TU.

as for the tu, revenue was a miss to forecast and going on last year when they say approaching or about then that could be at least £5m lower.

ebitda in line but what rate of margin, the key anyway isn’t bull **** ebitda but underlying earnings, looking at consensus they may be minimal if any growth compared to last year. don’t forget they have more debt with interest and more assets to depreciate.

no mention of their order book which suggests to me the new cfo is cherry picking, omitting any bad news, suspect it’s down by quite a bit. perhaps to counter the stall in growth they are now saying they will inform in march on their organic growth strategy. which is a positive but imo it’s nothing too material, perhaps a £10m acquisition or partnership as i still contend that a big chunk of cash is not distributable.

no mention of specific cash position either.

overall the update seemed to lack any meat on the bones and not exactly massively inspiring which the market seems to agree with.

have to see what they say in march. this ismt now showing too much strength in amy direction momentum wise

Oh ffs Sparky

Schroders are legally obliged to notify via a TR1 at any 1% increment above the 3% threshold. Until I see the TR1 there is zero proof IMO they have increased.

There may be an order, but it’s the trades that go through that determine which way the share price goes, and over the last 7 days this has only gone up 1.8%, hardly shooting the lights out. So what does that tell you?, there’s been a decent amount of selling too. But hey perma bulls will always come up with statements that actually mean nothing in reality.

Only managed to close up 10p because of an iffy UT, it will give that back on open Monday.

If all those large trades were buys it would have closed higher without the help of the UT.

Holders will always say large trades at mid are buys but clearly the share price action says something different.

Sparky Pal my money is on the 27th, always a Tuesday and can’t see it being next Tuesday.

The higher this gets towards resistance if 17 and RSI 70 the greater the likelihood this will then sell on news IMO.

Sparky Oal

Any thoughts on why the share price hasn’t really moved despite what you say and all those large trades you always assume are buys, yet the price then drops or remains fairly flat?

Sparky Pal

No thoughts chap, no TR1. Every 1% above 5% they need to notify via TR1 and as yet sweet fa.

Be good to see some momentum strength here to challenge resistance at £17. Which is more than likely to then be so,d off on news on 27th (IMO).

So basically waiting, not fussed one way or the other will short if sell will go long if breaks above 17 and RSI not overbought.

You do get rather over excited, do you remember your “next numbers will blow the doors off”, then a massive drop in sp.

Stay cool chap, you will need to IMO, :)

More sells than buys price goes down, more buys than sells price goes down. Equal trades inch.

Have to watch any dodgy UTs, as this gives false move on day.

Simples

Monkey

Yep.

But what did the share price do?, well on the 7th it dropped (more sellers than buyers) and on the 8th it was flat (equal sells to buys).

No doubt you will say there was mm manipulation!, nah.

Thanks Sparky Pal, but sorry I’m not into hugging you, I’m not that way inclined :!

When you say you are going to sleep until the next bit of news, is that a promise?, only

you’ve said that previously on multiple occasions but lied.

Motive, why should one need a motive to post facts and views on here, particularly when I’m trading thanks to Stocko!. The market isn’t just about shorting stocks as you well know…..oh hang on you don’t know do you.

HNY :)