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Hi
IMO the FTSE100 isn’t what it was in terms of defining quality and “Blue Chip”. Believe this is better off where it now is as it takes the pressure off.
Looks like it’s already working!
Good luck
Hi
Until it’s closer to the next review how much this needs to be is impossible to say. It’s not just the mcap here it’s how much are the 113 (think that’s the cut-off) in the top tier worth.
IMO this will be better off staying outside for a while rather then doing the Hokey Cokey.
Pipedreamer
Don’t see it going that low, perhaps high twenties again, but who knows tbh. Do think there is more upside potential but unless they sort the main issues out (as per my previous post) then the investment case for me isn’t there.
Such a shame for long term holders, the potential IMO is huge but the BOD just aren’t up to it, or haven’t been up to now, will O’Shea be any different, only time will tell but as yet I’m not seeing it!.
It is the level of debt combined with IMO insufficient operating cash flow and a very weak balance sheet that need to be addressed (some additional cash in the order of £500m). Most press articles state incorrectly that the divestments will be used to reduce debt, however the company have said many times now that it won’t, it will be used to fund their home strategy. So no divestment no strategy development, more drawdown and increased debt which impacts their credit ratings. Lots of other issues creating a perfect storm that at the moment they haven’t really provided any clarity on how they intend to move forwards and address the key issues. That said, for most businesses 2020 will now be a right off so looking on the bright side their managerial incompetence will be brushed under the Corona carpet, most of their issues occurred pre Corona, and it’s a play on 2021+.
This is going to just drift IMO until they update the market, it’s been over a month now and uncertainty will hit the sp IMO.
Pipedreamer
Not interested in trying to catch the bottom, it will never happen, if it does it’s pure luck or bull **** IMO. If I believe it’s undervalued and the risk/reward is okay then will invest and hold long term, not a day trader.
Sorry cant see where you have updated your TA here since about 3 weeks ago, or mentioned use of your algo’s. That said the update Friday will drive which way this is going next.
I only have one rule, buy low and sell at a profit.
Good luck with your algos mixed with TA, be good if you could post up what your model is saying about CNA.
Yep good to see a decent rise, especially for long suffering holders.
I’m waiting for the update Friday, still believe they will need to strengthen their balance sheet so be interesting to see if any movement in that direction. As with most shares at the moment trying to forecast/guess what value/risk exists as investments is nigh on impossible and I’m happy to hold cash until it’s clearer.
dalesflyer
That was the uncrossed trade, not a real trade just balancing books.
Nice to see some longs having a good couple of days here.
Intended to get in earlier but unfortunately other things have got in the way so will see now.
Matt agree about the balance sheet.
Personally think CS are too optimistic and some other analysts too pessimistic, so IMO 40-50 is more realistic but it could go either way as well.
Interesting one though.
Sorry, it was poster topsharepicks not stockpicker.......it’s my age and sun glaring on computer screen. Lol
Blue dreamer
Hopefully you will be able to go up there soon and looking on the bright side everything will be appreciated more.
Yes it’s been battered but still do think it’s because of their weak balance sheet, most investors are now avoiding high leveraged companies and looking for sufficient liquidity to be able to survive even an extended lockdown and this at the moment doesn’t tick enough boxes.
Although stockpicker posted something from 2008 about Buffett rumours, I do hear that Berkshire haven’t as yet started to invest heavily in this downturn, so who knows, can live in hope I suppose!.........but not yet please WB I’ve not opened a position yet!.
Pokerchips
Possibly then, trouble is sentiment is very poor at the moment and although the 5 year average PE is 12, the current PE is only 5, probably explains the variable forecasts from analysts, from c 29p to 70p.
Think they need to show the market that profit warnings are all behind them and significant changes are afoot, not false promises aka Conn. Lets hope O’Shea is not a Conn!.
Pokerchips
I just went on FY20 eps being about 4p, and rated on a PE of 10 (think the FTSE100 is on 12 and guess will stay in that area for the rest of this year).
Agree let’s see what the new CEO has in mind but scaling down the business wouldn’t do it any harm in my opinion.
No offence taken at all.
If you are a holder here, assume you are, then hope it comes good for you too.
Did I read that you have a van in Northumberland?, that brought back some childhood memories holidaying in that area, beautiful part of the country, was only very young so couldn’t even remember where we went but my late parents talked fondly about our times there.
Hi,
No, why?
Thanks pipedreamer.
Respect your views too. I agree, nothing from the chart indicates to me that the overall downtrend has finished, it keeps making new record lows and I wouldn't invest until as you say the breakout has been confirmed. The quandary I have is from fundamentals I only think it’s worth 40p max (could be wrong) so may have to gamble rather than wait for confirmed uptrend. Either way IMO it’s still a short term punt.
I’m with BG too, no issues yet with the service.
Being a relatively happy customer though is miles away from being an investor in the group. It’s so badly managed and do believe it needs massive changes to its structure and overall strategy.
Do I have any faith in the BoD absolutely not, but perhaps O’Shea may be what was needed, only been there 2 years so happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.......as ever time will tell.
anon
Very balanced post, I’m in two minds as well (no position). It’s a pure punt now, IMO it depends on whether they take this opportunity to sort the balance sheet out or not.
DD
Is it time to have a punt on this?