Member Info for Discodave4561

PI

Fair comments about £9m to gain 1%, but they were targeting 6% without any strategic growth plan identified although they’ve mentioned inorganic Investmemt for some time now. So yes they have 3.5% share and now the £9m is hopefully going them 3.5% in 3 years. My overall point being their forecasts are ambitions and clearly they have now realised it’s not going to be that easy. Tine will tell.

They stated £9m+ incremental investment, yes it might not be £3m pa, I’d assumed that, but they haven’t said what the annual breakdown is, which again no meat on the bones, could be £10m, £15m, who knows but given this is a “plan” then IMO it should have been more definitive with a lot more detail.

Just checked the Rev consensus forecast for FY26 and it was £782m (SP Angel £775m), they are now saying a mid forecast of £862m, that’s an uplift of £80m but their profits will be flat, so their margins must be taking a right hammering. Why?, it’s say £3m Opex investment (that’s what they’ve said) for this year not Capex, don’t get it tbh.

Will see what brokers say but doesn’t add up to me.

PI

They are possibly investing c £3m Pa for 3 years, it’s for efficiencies, improvements in processes etc etc (all Bobbys waffle) which IMO should not take £3m off their forecast profits (from forecast c £52m to £49m). Plus they recently forecast a market share of 6% (I though prior to that it was 7%-8%), so they are investing £9m to gain 1% market share, and that’s just a plan an ambition it’s not in anyway a guarantee.

Sorry I don’t see that investing for their growth this year, 3 months in, should kill their profit by £3m. If you could elaborate on how investing in the waffle Bobby has given will reduce this years profits then I’d be very much obliged and very impressed.

Haven’t read all of the report but didn’t see any mention of the usual inorganic growth, must have knocked that promise on the head, no surprise really.

Just re-read Bobbys commentary on their 3 year growth plan - tbh its a lot of PR waffle IMO with not much detail on what exactly the incremental £9m+ is being invested in, is that £3m pa?, to double market share when they were already targeting 6%, so £9m to gain an extra 1%?. And I thought their original target was 7% to 8%, will have to check that but my recollection was that that was the target.

Wtf is the UAE hub all about? - err tax benefit?

Consensus forecast was +6% increase in profit and eps. Today they’ve said profit will be as per FY25, ergo £49m not c £52m.

Does beg the question why would £9m investment kill short term profitability?, doesn’t seem to add up. Plus why arrange loan capability if so cash generative - they know growth needs forever more cash and they cannot fail to meet their liquidity covenants.

Posted they were going to invest in their processes and marketing, plus throwing in the AI buzzword.

This is what the market read even if the perma bulls with their rose tinted specs couldn’t see it:

Sparky deliberately missing the key statement:

"Adjusted EBITDA and PBT in line with 2025, with growth of underlying profitability tempered by overhead investment to support future growth opportunity.

Cash expected to decline marginally due to early ROC payment and further investment in sales acquisition costs.

So £9m+ in marketing will mean flat growth for FY26.

That said beat consensus eps forecasts by 2.8% but missed revenue forecast by c 2.2%. Now going for 7% market share (guess it's 3-5 years?) but market share growth clearly slowing, hence the need for the investment.

Next door was saying there was going to be a JV or an acquisition and the shares will rocket. Well given they are in effect saying zero growth in FY26 when consensus was for +6% eps growth then it's a profit warning.

Let's see how the market reacts.

From memory I doubted they would achieve the 7%-8% in 3 to 5 years, and they won’t be hitting that by the looks of it.

You say :- It’s is escalating very quickly. Monthly booking for March are going to be far higher than the 2025 average and looking very bullish for April and beyond even if it ended tomorrow will take months for stability to return.

Let’s see. It could be higher but time will tell. You already said the sp should be £21, it’s what you want which is different to what it is. Likewise your said their H2 will smash forecasts. I can’t see that but again let’s see. You post as though it’s fact bit with nothing to support your statements. You don’t know how much they could be losing because of their hedging strategy not being on the ball. You don’t know how competition has undercut them, because they can, and more competition.

An energy crisis is definitely beneficial to YU, stating the obvious. But will this evolve into an energy crisis?, nobody knows, not even you, the self pronounced world renowned (well in your head anyway) expert on the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, China etc etc.

I hold Shell and other energy stocks but do not want this war to escalate or be drawn out, because it will hit economies hard, not to mention the thousands of innocent deaths and for what?, Trumps ego, it’s disgusting IMO, and nothing to gloat about like you do.

Sparky

Yep you don’t behave like someone holding a multibagged stock, just like your green monkey who says he makes trades but they never show up!.

You always state that I’ve said things that I haven’t, never said their 4% was irrelevant, I’ve said that they can have a lot more but if it’s not profitable or increase earnings growth rates, that’s the point, bigger billionaire backed companies can fund a loss to get market share, put competitors out of business, then become the major player and up their prices, YU haven’t achieved their 7%-8% target (sure it was this range but now it’s 6%, I’m sure yo will correct me!) and IMO have hit that point where they realise it’s not going to be as easy as it was now, hence the need to invest in order to grow.

So when you said two weeks or so ago this WAS going to hit £21 pounds, are you putting a date on that prediction?. You’ve also said their H2 numbers will have rocketed up and will be beating forecasts, can you put some numbers on that prediction.

So far on this thread we have had £21, £26, then the NG predictions of £35 to £52 by 2024, but the best is £100 when they hit their market share forecasts / targets, believe that was 7% to 8%. I’ve never heard so much fantasist forecasting in all my days. Where is NG now?, dragged in suckers then sold ages ago. And the ironic thing is I was lambasted for challenging that prediction. So do they have 4% market share already I forget tbh, so they now want 6%, 50% more. The sp is 1685, say 50% more for the 6% and on a like for like that’s a sp of £25.28, what’s broker targets?, oh yeah £20.50 to £26.77. Agree that if the war or another war causes an energy crisis then it would demand a higher price. But £100, a complete joke IMO. Then there’s your £200!, which clearly was said in jest, but then again who know with you.

Ps you call me a pessimist, PMSL, because I believe the opposite to you. The person that wants innocent people to keep dying, the person that want the worlds economies to get hit hard with recessions etc etc.

Sparky chap, you are clearly the pessimist.

Sparky,

I assume your monkey follows your every word everywhere, the green box monkey that ie.

You said:YU have demonstrated they are profitable in a lower price environment 2025 as an example 15% headwind and still increased revenue

PMSL. You really do wear rose tinted glasses. They were not profitable until the Ukraine war. Their growth has stalked in terms of their bottom line earnings, possibly now saved by the TACO Tango man - possibly!. Your statement is to be blunt a load of rubbish, they e proven nothing, other than they need a war and an energy crisis to be profitable. Sorry but the facts don’t lie.

Then your backing the wrong horse jibe. I backed this long and short and overall made decent profits thanks. I’m glad I didn’t go long recently then I realised the upward momentum was all down to JPM and the business buying Bobbys shares. When JPM stopped the price does was it’s being doing for a while now headed back towards its medium term range.

I said the price at this moment is no higher than the peak last year, or in fact the peak of 2023. Cyclicality is out there window at the moment us it not, My point being that in 2025 they missed revenue forecasts despite the gas price hitting where it is now.

I see Tesla Energy has received its licence. Another competitor that can no doubt afford to make a loss to take market share, the Amazon strategy.

Have a good day

Sparky you are a warmonger, this is why I believe you sold ages ago. Nobody with a multibagger would be reacting the way you do, you love any disaster and innocent people dying if you believe your beloved YU will benefit.

Your view on the macros and politics is viable though, but it’s as ever the worst case scenario to suit your agenda, but it’s logically sound. However as with everything there are alternatives.

Trump knee the impact on oil and yes the power play but ultimately this is simply his show, he craves attention, but he also knows the damage it’s doing (he would not have ignored the implications regarding the straits of Hormuz) but IMO he will simply walk away, no face lost in his head. His pals and no doubt himself have made a few more billions and will put pressure on him, they back him financially all said and done.

As for YU reaping the benefits of an extended war, of course they will, only a war makes them profitable, otherwise they are loss making. Gas is no higher at the moment than the peak last year, and let’s remind folks, they missed their Rev target and their cash forecast. It took 10 months after the war in Ukraine broke out before the upward momentum in the share price.

How much could they be losing on fixed contracts if their hedging isn’t on the ball?. They aren’t the only suppliers out there either, and guess BG could undercut even at a loss in order for them to gain market share.

Then there’s Bobbys £5.9m sell off and the timing, market sentiment cannot be ignored. It’s not exactly rocketing at the moment is it, why not?.

Newrino

Thanks but you did say a few days ago that you were sick of me and Sparky posting!.

Do you have any thoughts?

Sparky is saying their H2 numbers will “rocket” and they will beat forecasts and the sp will hit £21 soon, when exactly soon is is debatable. However IMO it’s not going to happen “soon” and yes in time if the war is protracted it may next year when the high energy filters through their contract book.

But IMO Trump will walk away “soon”, he won’t commit to ground troops, his billionaire backers have made money going long on oil, his red buddy Putin is shipping oil to India to bolster their economy and the war in Ukraine, and Trump will be under pressure not to push inflation up too much and drag them into a recession. He will walk away with his usual bragging rights.

The IEA have agreed to dump 400m barrels of oil to mitigate the inflationary risk, believe it was only 182m for the energy crisis resulting from the Ukraine war.

Sentiment isn’t too positive, thanks to Bobby IMO.

Now JPM arent providing any upward momentum it’s just drifting down into its normal range.

Not too long now for the results and confirmation of their growth plan - be interesting to see if it is more Investmemt into their digital by default processes, and how much. Could also include some marketing IMO as don’t see too many promos etc about YU.

Someone elsewhere was saying this was going to be £21 soon and the usual ramping of H2 being massive profits due to the war, don’t see it personally, gas is still only marginally above the peak of last year and about the peak of 2023. Even if the war is protracted it won’t feed through until sometime later, say 2027.

All IMO DYOR

Newrino

What do you think will happen if the war is protracted beyond a few weeks?. Fairy obvious IMO, wholesale energy will increase and in time that will increase YUs income and profits. It won’t be immediate though IMO.

This board is for posting views is it not, that’s exactly what Sparky and I do. We don’t agree on most things but that’s life..

If you don’t like what someone posts then you are free to filter them, that’s exactly what I’ve done with DB19 et al.

Sparky

It could be bad, especially for all those innocent people getting killed.

But yes if extended then we could see a repeat of what happened due to the Ukraine war. However, gas is still only marginally higher than the leaks of last year and 2023. Plus it took at least 10 months after the war breaking out for the share price to also start to breakout so doubt their could be any beat to FY26 forecasts. Also if inflation increases then more SMEs will struggle to survive, you posted there was going to be a recession this year, well that won’t help businesses including YU.

Anyway, nobody can foresee the future, I’ve closed my short 2 days ago as a bounce was likely yesterday. Happy to sit on my hands now and see what happens. £17 could be support short term, stochastic is oversold, but RSI isn’t yet at c 43.

IMO they will only be outlining their plans, nothing material. Can’t be an actual acquisition or JV because that would have to be reported to the market asap.

They do state on their website in relation to their digital by default strategy:

“Digital by Default is the way that we think at Yü Energy. Our platform is ahead of the competition and we still have an ambitious programme of change ahead of us.”

So could their plan include more investment into their digital processes, the arbitrary use of the phrase AI, to jump on the bandwagon, and could they also be introducing some complimentary traditional marketing campaigns?.

Despite the folks who think that British Gas aren’t now in direct competition with YU, and are from their recent numbers doing a lot better than YU, clearly YU will have to up their game somehow if they are going to keep or grow market share.

All IMO and DYOR.

As previously posted, JPM were the reason for the upward momentum, now IMO Bobbys massive sell off has hit sentiment. An energy supply company who could in time (2027+) benefit as they have previously by a war impacting wholesale energy prices, Yet the sp keeps falling now JPM has little strength to any positive momentum.

Sorry but why folks would not see Bobby selling £5.9m as anything other than a negative sign is beyond belief IMO.

Bought these exactly a year ago to the day, and just sold. Happy to take my 50% profit and leave some for the next guy.

This was rolling over from its recent high and whether it was this possible £600m hit or not the chances were the sp wasn’t going to make another 50% in 12 months.

Sooner or latter this crap government would be eyeing up the banking sector following their decent profits.

Good luck.

Can guess who the green man is. Think I’m in his head rent free, there’s enough space.

Folks should defo check out his postings on ADVFN.

Anyway, wonder if JPM closed a bit more yesterday hence the slight recovery later in the day.

Bit of selling again today by the looks of it. Stochastic now in oversold, but RSI not there yet.

Thanks Bod for your valuable input on YU.

Thanks also for your compliment, yes I’m 247 365 on shares, that’s how I make my very nice living, cheers.

Good luck

Sparky

One last thought - their strategy for growth in market share could just be a different marketing strategy (traditional) rather than what they do now which is its digital first approach to customer acquisition. These costs have been increasing but the exact expense associated with marketing itself isn’t given in the accounts from what I can see.

Who knows