Member Info for Dibs61

Just ignore gazza it’s another outsider peering in knocking on the window. There are so many still that fail to grasp the facts of the situation here, understand the whole picture and take the appropriate action, they’ll miss out as simple as.

Star - it’s a bit rich you telling other people to go and research. You keep on harping on about a Roche Lab Test as much as you like, you’re ****ing in the wind. Why? I’ve already told you. The government wants a rapid test you can perform at home. Lab tests will have their role to play but they CANNOT repeat CANNOT provide the solution the government requires which is for mass testing.

Do let us know when the penny drops but I’m personally not holding my breath.

Now Starbucks I’m going to be kind here and tell you once more. The Roche Test is a LAB test. It is NOT a rapid POC test which is at the centre, the lynchpin of the UK government strategy.

Sure, Roche May be able to sell some of their lab tests here. Bothered? Not. It makes no difference to ODX prospects. ODX will still sell a lot of lab tests too.

But you really must focus on the correct research and not cherry pick stuff you deem is negative. See the big picture and understand or lose credibility.

Oh dear the news from WHO and The Guardian is not good for Scharnhorst, bunzl and other doubters/snipers/derampers because it slams the door shut on another one of their salty deramping routes. They’re quickly running out of them. Not that it was ever a negative anyway because Antibody Tests would be required regardless but when you’re as desperate to find ANYTHING as they are....

I guarantee the dwindling number of people on here poo this will be the first ones frantically pressing the BUY button tomorrow morning. :D

Just to repeat we are NOT a competitor of Novacyt. We are complementary. They are complementary. No need, no POINT in deramping each other because it makes diddly squat difference. They will continue to be successful and so will we.

I am now convinced there will be a huge market need for both tests and I wish good luck to NCYT holders (not that they need it they’ve already got it made!)

Hi Merchantbanker, yes very positive for us because the implication is exactly the same, they are expecting, no experiencing already 'significant demand' but you CAN'T invest in Abingdon Health but you CAN invest in ODX.

A couple of other things, the posts they are advertising are PERMANENT positions. Not temporary or fixed contract but PERMANENT so they are not expecting this to be a short term boom.

Also they have developed an app to use in conjunction with the test so I would assume that the same app will be used with the ODX test because it will be one of the same thing.

It just gets better and better.

Very simple. Roche Antibody Test is purely for LAB testing. It is NOT a POC test which is what the UK and many other countries NEED and require because they do not have the infrastructure (wealth) to support a sophistacated lab system.

You also need to be running on Roche machinery to use it.

So it is ZERO threat to the huge market that awaits the UK-RTC POC test.

That all said I am sure the Elisa Mologic/ODX lab based test will still take a large market in the UK and well beyond. Roche will be one of several players in this market.

So ignore no-marks who haven't got a clue what they are talking about.

This week is going to be huge for ODX.

up - if you’re referring to my earlier post about trading VAL and ODX I have not sold a single share on my core holding of ODX and won’t be. That was just a bit of fun on my trading account ie.buying MORE ODX not less.

For clarification ODX BUY and HOLD.

ShrewdDude67 - reported for deramping! Lol but hey seriously I’d take mid 70’s COP Monday

Ps I think your post was a little tongue in cheek ;)

Hi Bezzy, for the sake of convenience, and I hope the poster in question on the other forum does not mind but I am copying/pasting one of the posts in question and just to clarify he is a former director of ODX so his view is much respected:

“We live in interesting times. Value as ever is in the eye of the beholder. I have used some of my time this morning to do some basic NPV analysis based on ODX's three lines of business ( FIT, CD4 and C19) As ever the values are driven by assumptions; my assumptions are that of continued growth in FIT to more than double its current EBITDA then plateauing after ten years and then declining significantly after 15 years. With CD4 I see this ramping up over four or five years to deliver a broadly similar number to FIT then just plateauing for the future. With Covid19 I see a couple of really spikey years followed by a long long tail where it could contribute a couple of million a year. Then the major factor is the assumption on your cost of capital - using 10% you arrive at 115p using 5% you get 167p.“

In a subsequent post he goes onto say that his Covid financial projections were modest and if he were more bullish.....

fjones40 - cheers - i do occasionally get a bit carried away but stay mostly focused and grounded. You have to be to make money. I did a nice trade on VAL (Thurs/Fri) - made nearly 60% and put the money straight back in here again. Apologies off topic but VAL is worth keeping an eye on. Placing pending but once thats out the way it could be interesting with sub £2m MC and a decent pipeline of projects.

Ferrari - let us hope the S Koreans findings are verified elsewhere. As you say they are to be respected for their whole approach to the virus so we cannot take what they say lightly.

so, sssuming you cannot be reinfected and the rest is accurate you will only ever have one antigen test. And even then only if you are symptomatic (in the main). Whilst with antibody tests everyone will need to have them, possibly several times. So it’s not difficult to conclude which is the bigger market.

I don't normally try to predict SP but in this instance I think £1.50 is a reasonably conservative short term target given the NPV and cash flow calculations provided by a former senior employee of the company on ADVFN.

And I repeat "conservative".

fjones40 - how far and how fast the SP moves now (assuming we get regulatory approval for the RTC POC test) is dependent on two things:

1. How much and how quickly ODX can scale up their manufacturing capability and I have no doubt they are continuing to work on that right now
2. How big and how quick the orders start to come in. I believe they will come in both large in size and we won't have long to wait to see them materialize. Time is of the essence here.

fjones40 - good balanced post. I agree with much of what you say but would pick up the point, as you did, on her comment on antibody tests and I'll quote again:

On the question of can you catch Covid 19 twice.....

Dr Harries, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England replied: "The WHO (World Health Organization) position is very similar to the one we would have, which basically says we actually don't have enough information yet to be very clear on the immune status.

"We know that some people will have different status. We would normally expect to see some sign of immunity about 10-12 days after an infection, and then a very consistent pattern [at] about 28 days.

She added: "There's sometimes a delay in different individuals and we need to study this really carefully as we go forward. Our testing policy and the development of new antibody tests will help us do that."

That last sentence is key. The point is that we are the front runner. If it were a horse race we are way out ahead with the main pack quite a way behind and the only one chasing us in the final straight is Mologic. Of course there WILL be others who make the test. It will not be only ODX because they simply don't have the scale to meet the mammoth demand. The burning question will simply be how MUCH can ODX scale up to meet demand. How many of these tests will they be able to make. Once again I repeat ODX will def NOT have a monopoly because the IP will be open for others to use but we have the experience and expertise to exploit first advantage. It's going to be a very exciting and momentous few weeks to come but this without doubt is a company maker for ODX. Going forward we will have the financial clout and the network of contacts to exploit our other business successes such as Visitect CD4, Food Detective and Allergies.

No ODX are not manufacturing antigen tests - correct. The question is were there any RTC Antibody Tests in the mix.

It# all a but immaterial though because we know where this is going. The dots are all joined.

That last post was my 12,000 post on LSE :D Bit of a veteran now lol

Oh and I wrote it whilst on the loo. I always do my best posts on the loo.

And one other thing, when I mentioned RNS’s I didn’t mean Mologic announcement last night ‘was’ an RNS. It wasn’t. Just a reference to reading RNS’s and any other company announcement correctly.

It’s clear that there are one or two posters that have understood last nights announcement by Mologic but quite a few that haven’t. It’s like with any market RNS announcement. You have to READ it properly, sometimes several times and UNDERSTAND it.

Let’s be clear, currently what Mologic are saying is they have a PROFESSIONAL use POC test. That means it can’t currently be executed by someone ‘at home’. It would require a ‘professional’ such as a health worker to do it for them. They then go onto say they are now working on developing a ‘stripped down test variant’. In other words a test that COULD be used at home. They are not in the government backed consortium and the government are not hanging their hat on them.
Another thing, their ‘professional’ test has NOT achieved the level of sensitivity and specificity required by the UK government.

Anyone who thinks they have stealed a march on the UK-RTC as regards the Rapid POC Test is badly mistaken. The evidence is all in Mologics announcement you just need to read it properly.

Last half hour chance to take a position. I would say VERY high chance of significant RNS Monday 7 am.

shortter I knew what he meant. I observe people’s posting history and people can of course post what they like. I trade stocks too and I would happily trade this too but I think it is crucial here, at this point, to have an open long position, no question.