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This is a buyers dream. Sitting just above the 50 & 200 day moving averages. Yes the stock is pinned to 50p, ‘for now’. Nothing to do with Tullow, Oil, a secret buyer or seller or takeover. Not even a lack of order flow thanks in part to the Turquoise account. So what does that leave ? What’s the obvious reason.....

Has very little to do with company fundamentals, the price of Oil or algorithmic traders. Although it may appear that way. It’s all to do with order flow volumes & inducing buying & selling. Obviously the current focus is inducing sellers. Especially after the recent company update. Sold stock covers shorts & causes the next rise.

Encompasses 3 Months. Yes this trade is a long one but those who are patient should be rewarded. Two Weeks or so to meet the averages, then we should see a trend change.

The main reason stocks rise is increased profits & dividends. It’s the reason the US market outperforms the ‘flat’ UK market. That said if the markets rally into yearend & Oil remains elevated, then Tullow’s price will be moved up due to risk control, if nothing else. Ie increase Trader volumes.

In the absence of, the price control algo’s use Oil for direction. Which is a low volume contract change over day for WTI, graph mirrored by Brent. This might be a good trading opportunity but no guarantee’s of cause.

Tiger100 hi, look up ‘painting the tape’ this is not what’s occurring but it’s interesting that this description exists.

Lets see what transpires the Week. If the stock continues to trade flat, we may need to wait until next Month when the side-channel converges with the parallel 50 Day & 200 Day moving averages. Seasonality usually makes October a difficult Month.

When the 50 Day Moving Average crosses the 200 Day, on a 3 Month+ chart. Oil appears to be moving back to it’s trend line & Tullow should also, at around 70p ?. Looks like the Algo’s controlling the share price are calculating this flawlessly & accumulating sold stock in the process.

SLT hi, Here’s something to cheer you up. Over the same period JKX is up almost 200% with only 5 MM’s feeding on the stock & Hur is up 300% with 10 MM’s. TLW is a different animal with 17 MM’s to support. The high liquidity value also makes it easy to churn large amounts causing the poor performance. Note MM’s turn a profit even if the stock closes flat. The share price is irrelevant to the Industry, only where the most volume can be found is applicable.

UK Market hehe, think positive the FT100 is currently 71 points higher than it’s December 1999 high….. 21 years ago. Just be grateful you don’t have a UK index pension.

Just out of interest, what is the date that Pictet opened or increased their short position, that you are referring too ?

Hi Joek1, yes that’s exactly right. It’s only the value that adjusts the share price. This also includes ie is added to or subtracted from, the days increase or decrease just prior to the UT. As you can see the devil is in the detail & it’s very easy to misinterpret when reading PDF’s etc.

Hi Joek1, I very doubt that you will get a reply. If a share price is 10p & you sell £1m @ 10p & I buy £1m @ 10p there is no effect on the share price. No increase or decrease, the two sides cancel each other out. If that trade is included in a UT, the applicable value & volume involved will not be reported in the uncrossing total because they cancelled each other out. A UT is a price correction & adjustment trade, conducted by the Lse. As about 99% of PI trades are matched off book, it is also used to ascertain a correct reference price. You were only aware of the volume because the Fund had to report it’s position. These trades can take place daily & Joe Public is unaware. Perks of the Industry one could say. This is just one element of many.

Joek1 hi, Every buy is matched with a sell & vice versa. To determine whether a buy or sell, one side has to be aggressive & the other passive or resting. In the case where neither side is aggressive & the traded value has no price impact on the stock, for valuation purposes, it is irrelevant or didn’t exist. Hope that solves the puzzle.

It’s common for stocks to bounce 100% off their recent low. ie 80p+. This is why I won’t be surprised to see Tullow in the 80’s during Q4. Also markets usually rally at year end & into Q1, so more opportunity of an increase.

Looks like you will have to wait until Q4. That will be Tullow’s quarter. Targets 70s, 80s or 90s, maybe even more. Well worth the wait, Oil permitting of course. No doubt the Daytraders will profit take too soon, but that’s where the experience comes in.

Here’s two bold predictions for ye: 65 to 70p+ near term & back to £2 over the next few years. Timeline & price dependant on Company specific circumstances, the Oil price & possibly most important, healthy order flow.

If you want to close a large short position without it impacting the stock price during the trading day & may want to hide the trade, yes that would be the best way to conduct it. Over the counter can be low volume, a negotiated trade could be an option, this can be reported after hours, in the hope it’s not seen. All you need is someone that has accumulated a Long position.

My view is that it is short closing because the £15m is more than the days £6m closing down figure. I think that this is the point that Joek1 was making, the maths don’t add up. The reason that they don’t add up is because the stock is trading below it’s true value due to the shorts & the closing UT corrected a ‘proportion’ of this. Note with a UT you don’t see the whole trade, only the portion that adjust the stock price & the applicable volume to that portion. There’s a lot more to a UT than you can read on the net. Long positions are reconciled with short, Pro’s can hide trades in UT’s etc because not all of the trade is posted

Runningman, can you be more specific, do you mean who buys the shorts on the way down ? or who’s in the UT ?