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Taking a second leg down. Was all this premium due to Ukraine, surly not. Also it’s not as though this is the end of the sorry story, just a few troops pulled back to barracks. Has everyone dancing though, including the Guy managing Tullow’s share price.

Russia is expected to invade Ukraine by the end of the Week. If this does occur the situation could get quite bad & have a global impact. Industry forecasts are for Oil to rise a fair way above $100. Fake news or not, it will be interesting to see what occurs. Barclays rating of 60 to 75p just might come true sooner than we think.

Something just might be going on. The 50 day moving average is creeping up to the 200 day. If it crosses that would be a Golden Cross, that be. And the first time the 50 has been above the 200 since September last year. Which may signal a breakout to the upside. Re volume, maybe the Industry are absent, at a party. Stock now positive. Oil is up too.

Hi Spud, keep your eye on the Side-Channel since the 25th. Highest channel average volume is currently at 3.65p, so this is now trading below the average. Stocks trade in price bands & the Industry sales will be conducted within that band. If excessive selling comes in, from another seller, example the 31st & 1st dip. The Industry will buy the stock back up to the price band. If over the next Week or so this gradually moves down towards 3p then it might be an idea to reduce your position or dump the lot. You can always buy back in at a lower price. As you know it’s very difficult to recover losses. In the absence of an official offer this might drift back to 2p. If there was any flesh on the bone the Industry would be buying in here themselves & I don’t see that. Problem with the Stock Market is that it’s full of creatures worse than sharks. And when you think you have the key, someone changes the locks.

Hi etank, One day this will be sold as too the price is anyone’s guess. As you know the world works on hard facts. Currently there is not an official offer, so just speculation. What I can comment on is what’s currently occurring. The stock is Side-Channelling with a gradual downward bias due to selling. If this is Industry managed then when they have finished working their Clients order/s, the stock may be left to price decay. We will find out over the next few Weeks.

Hi Selllowbuyhigh, the simplest answer is that if Tullow posted annual profits & paid dividends, which kept growing year on year, then yes the share price would keep increasing. That’s not the case though, so there’s your answer. The Industry makes it’s money from volume order flow. If the stock rises to say 80p & there is good PI participation, to make money off, then fine. If that’s not the case, then it wont be at 80p for very long.

Hi etank, your quite correct I have not worked in the mining industry. Who manages stocks, how they are managed, market structure, regulation, applicable maths & the mechanics involved, is a different matter. The stock is just the investment tool. Yes the asset has fantastic potential. The issue is transferring the carrot to shareholders. Something that you have no control over.

Remember the good old PFS. Day high 4.01. Highest traded volume at 3.65 & 3.25.
Highest traded volume over the past 10 days is at 3.65. Just business as usual.

55p yesterday was technical. Oil is down as Iran talks started today with the possibility of 1.4mbpd being added to the market. Is it manipulation or just large positions moving the stock, as required. BP has reported a £9.5bn profit & their share price is also down. Many dynamics at play & not just the obvious.

Hi Kammy, can you or anyone else advise: is the up to £100m valuation for the resource in the ground or extracted & processed ready to use. Because this may explain the 3.5p share price.

Really, is this aimed at Joe Public. Just look at a graph over the previous few days. The Industry ‘Depress’ the stock so much it puts Folk off buying. Not too mention the last 7 Months playtime. Not like it’s obvious is it. Why not try a new share price management model. It just might achieve the increased volume you desire.

Everyone only buys stocks, they never sell. Well PI’s don’t anyway. This is why stocks continually go up & never go down. Stocks Side-Channel because of equal selling to buying. Usually professionally managed. Now look at a 10 day graph, after the stock has been taken up to this price level on the 25th. No selling there, right ?

Hi Geng, you make a good point about the value of Plena’s warrants. However there not the only ones which may need working. Euroclear haven’t been missed off. The stock has been sold / churned at the higher price level. Realising the increased value. Others are 269m117,701 up by 26m805,132. Surprisingly two PI accounts have decreased slightly. PI’s taking profit’s, now that’s something. I note the After Market trades have returned, lets see what the value is today.

Good observation PGee. Tullow is currently sitting right on it’s 200 Day Moving Average at 49.93. Calculated perfectly by the price & risk control Algo. What happens next ie up or doon depends upon Oil, because that's another Algo setting.

Kammy18 hi, you made a good point the other day. Algo’s can buy in 32 milliseconds which is faster than you can blink. If there was any meat on the bone the Industry would be in & this would be at price X. Currently this looks like business as usual, which is marketing & sales.

Hi spud, hope ye well. ‘Can’t help but think that this is the worse time to try to sell an asset in Russia & achieve the best possible price’. Remember the sp bumbling along then rose & a Director sold his shares. It later fell back then amazingly we have this rise & Plena are able to exercise their warrants. I now see large block trades on the tape. Over the next few Weeks lets see if they are holding or selling. Which is a good Barometer, if they are selling then it doesn’t look like there is much upside. Dependant on how well this is managed, my guess is that this will be back down to 2p & it’s around that price that an offer will come in. Lets hope I’m wrong.

Block sales progressing nicely.

Hi Geng, ask yourself this question: would you have been buying large values at 4p ? & if so why was there the need for ACTX at 4.5p to hold the stock price up, during the process. If say you contracted a Broker / Broker dealer that may also be Market Making & paid a premium fee to fill the order. Considering that they have privileged access would they have worked a buy order at the days high ? Wouldn’t you at least be asking for a fee refund ? Remember PFS Wednesday, stock up by around 70%, I would say due to Value input by PI’s. By Friday it was flat with all the Value extracted. Lets hope there’s not a repeat.

Difficult to see Opec sighting Covid for delaying production increases for a second Month. With global inflation running at it’s highest for decades. US highest since 1982. Political pressure must be for more than the planned January 400kbpd increase. It will be interesting to see what occurs, big increase or Oil in the high $90’s. Maybe Oil in the high $90’s regardless.

Hi Geng, The devil is in the detail & there is a lot of detail. Key is to understand share pricing & thus how to buy or sell without impacting the sp, unless you want too. Also the Industry has a process of selling large volumes of stock without it being noticed, apart from being on the tape. Sales appear as large buys. A necessity with ‘illiquid’ stocks and a service available for wealthy clients. The Turquoise account is very relevant in this. Apart from odd questions, your the only person on these bb’s that has any interest in how the Industry operates, credit for that !. These days everyone wants to drive the car without understanding what’s under the bonnet.