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‘Tullow a shocking investment’

Unless I’ve missed something this might get a lot worse.

I did mention last year that PFC traded normally for the best part of a year before it was suspended.

There is considerable debt involved so lets use a 100 to 1 ratio which was used with GKP some years ago.

Assuming you buy now: £10k initial purchase – 8p = 125,000 shares

Divide by a 100 ratio = 1,250 shares x 8p = £100

As you can see the initial £10k would be virtually impossible to recover, as it requires a SP at £8, which is an increase of around 10,000%.

However if the re structuring has been cancelled, please let me know.

I’m amazed that there hasn’t been a dilution RNS. The Industry closing the listing position up doesn’t make sense unless it’s just for balancing the position. It is possible that this will be closed up further. It’s just dependent on the values sitting on the system & the firms managing the listing. The position has been running negative for a few years. Re selling the key word is ‘illiquid’ that said you should be able to sell via the retail broker quote system, alternatively place a limit order at a lower price.

'After all, we all have different investment targets'

The difference is that Professional investors view listings as ‘income’ not long term investment. So yes they will milk it.

I think it’s possible that this might take another leg down to say 4 / 5p or so. With Oil where it is it’s an ideal opportunity.

Might see this closed back to 12.50 this Week, all part of the listing management.

Should see this closed back to around £1.40 by the end of the Week regardless of the Oil price or company circumstances. Usually the Industry work volume & the General Public which takes time, but not with this listing !

The Investment Industry manage & work the listing position. Analysts are external business’s outside the Industry & can only make educated predictions, like Joe Public. The Investment Industry are the ones with ultimate control. Only they know what’s been pre planned. So, is this now time to break above 12.50 or pullback, we will see.

Marcel, since Tullow has been in a downtrend since it was at £14 some years ago. Shorting is the only rational, sensible & above all profitable option. Only a fool catches a falling knife.

Remember that punters here will be using Retail Shorting products not Professional. There is a big difference. One advantage with Professional Shorts is that if the stock is delisted and you Short sold say £1m worth, you wouldn’t have to buy to cover. You just keep the £1m ! Groovy ain’t it.

With PFC Shareholders were informed that they might get wiped out. So far this has not been announced for TLW. After the announcement PFC traded as usual for the best part of one year before being suspended. Did this give a false impression & draw punters in ? Another option for refinancing or part of it is an ‘Investor’ buying a large chunk of equity. Usually with discounted options. This comes with it’s own risks & may involve significant dilution.

Stadiuminvest, considering your disclosed losses, it might be advantageous to ask questions rather than criticize. Your correct that graphs are historical information. However with knowledge of the industries business model & the listing mechanics involved they disclose much much more. The graph shows where the workings are, at any point in time. Put another way once a buildings foundations are set, one knows the future outline of the building.

PS: Hedge Funds minimum client entry level use to be £100k, I don’t know what it is currently. Their aim is to generate around 20%+ pa for clients. You could earn much more by having your position professionally managed by the same firms that work the listing. There are other types of professional set ups. Trading is at the sharpest end of participation & DIY Trading without any knowledge of how the Stock Market works is extremely high risk, as you have found out to your cost.

N08s, I’m absolutely delighted that you have mentioned charts ! Amazingly almost never are these mentioned on these bb’s. Trading with chart recognition, is more successful than not. However there is an accompaniment & that’s understanding the mechanics that generates the graphs. These days charts are the optics of computer programs & listing management. There are lots of polished videos on line but no mention of the mechanics. If the video aligns with the General Publics perception of how they think the stock market works then that tells you a lot about the author. That said, the more you know the more you are aware of how easy it is to move a stock at the push of a return key. Which of cause has nothing to do what so ever with the underlying company, although it will be timed to appear so. Maybe even with an RNS thrown in for good luck.

N08s, there is a fly in the ointment: a company ‘restructuring’. If say the SP drops to 2p & bounces 100% to 4p that will be a great trade but not for current holders. Likewise if there is a 50 to 1 share consolidation & a rise folk will still be at a loss. The graph will look the same but the value will be greatly diminished. RR. etc did not have the debt ratio. Correct we don’t know what’s in store, so very high risk !

‘no equity to swap’ that really should be no value in the equity to swap.

What happens when a stock is Shorted say 50% & then the Short is closed ?

The value transfers to the Short position & is then repatriated.

Obviously this depends on where & how the Short is closed.

The Net explanations only detail closing at the bottom to extract value but there are other ways of extracting value without closing at the bottom.

There is a whole world of difference between professional Shorts & Retail products which don’t impact the SP’s because the Broker is on the other side of the Short.

I do smile when bods on ear moan about other bods shorting …

There is actually another way of achieving this but that’s another story.

So if the value is not returned where might it go ?

Has the value already been extracted, like forward selling ?

Food supermarkets don’t make money off each other, they make it off the General Public. The Investment Industry is the same. Issue is when Trades are pre calculated & there is a shortfall gain from the General Public the balance needs to be made up from the market cap. And there you have your Walking-it-Down process.

Ripley94, not sure if your advising a Sell or Buy ?

It depends on the trade duration. Intra day, Week or longer.

PFD was worked well before it was suspended, but that’s the risk.

The stock that goes up every day !

JMAX, I do wonder if you have worked in the Industry, but then you do slip up on some things. Like the markets involvement with the share. It’s wrong to laugh at some posters. Some are extremely intelligent but sadly focused in the wrong areas. The psychology does amaze me, why people just focus on the listed company & not the Industry in the background. I can’t emphasize this enough, it really should be obvious but folk don’t see it, it’s as if they have blinkers. Someone told me on here that he has no interest in how this works, which is like going into a Casino & gambling without any knowledge of how the table games work. Admittedly the Industry keep all of this a big secret & there is a lot of deflection. You are correct that it is rigged. A lot of what goes on wouldn’t have been possible before computerisation.

The only reason why Companies list on stock markets is for cheap interest free funding. It’s usual for refinancing to include extracting value from the market cap. But of cause anything can happen. Tullow was once the darling of the stock market peeking at around £14 but has been in a downtrend ever since. Unfortunately there are no up to date clear rulebooks detailing how this works. If there was most here would keep well clear. As for experienced traders, yes the graph & mechanics involved display standard activity but if say there was a 50% dilution that loss would be very, if not impossible to recover. The dark cloud may evaporate & this may be just another Industry trade, but fact is that the sp is trading at lower & lower price levels.

It would be interesting to know just how much money the General Public lose on these stocks. I know of one AIM stock where around £800m to £1bn was pumped in with only £5m returned to shareholders. Where does the money go ?

JMAX, the dog barks when told too by it’s masters. Why do PI’s only focus 100% on the listed companies & zero on the firms that yield ultimate control over them. Ain’t Tullow taking the listing sp down & it’s not PI’s either. Their at loss sales contribute to closing Short position. If you can’t easily read it on the net it doesn’t exist, does it. At least not on these chit chat boards.

Mav, what’s a good buy in price 4p, 3p, 2p, 1p or a fraction of a penny ?

If this drops to a tenth of a penny & bounces 100% will it be a trade worth risking ?

Client account being sold off ?

At best this looks to be heading for the AIM index

Newbee, no TLW is a very different case. TLW is in a walking-it-down process as value is extracted. RR has topped out, controls were put in place a week or so ago to bring it back down. That said RR’s engineered trade was spectacular ! Amazing that the industries business model was implemented in such a simplistic way. Took a good few years to work the volume involved.

Something to note here, retail posters on these bb’s focus 100% on the listed companies, not the industry that work them or the mechanics involved.