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‘2024 is looking good for LTH’

Really, that depends on how long the long term holders have been holding. Some forget that this was once £14. So the current SP represents dismal long term performance. And current holders are just bottom feeding.

GKP, ENQ, HBR, GENL, TLW etc all moved down to lower trading ranges because when the Industry that manages the stocks is not working Client orders their wages are paid from Order Flow Volume & as these are UK listings external PI participation is few & far between. All you have to do is look at the tape. The PI trades are the large ones traded with a shovel & all others the Industry averaging their positions in response to whichever process is taking place at the time.

Only 8% of crude travels through the Red Sea and some container ships are starting to reused the route. Currently Oil is still over supplied.

One advantage of having your position professionally managed is the ability to Short & devalue your input cost should the SP decline. In fact any declines increase your profits allowing you to cost pound average & increase your holding. Sound familiar ?

HBR currently up 28% looks like someone is closing the Shorts on that or perhaps I should say closing up the ‘Primary’.

Highlighted on the network news wires yesterday it stated that TLW is one the UK’s most Shorted stocks. I doubt very much that this is incorrect due to the source, so again this indicates that the Shorts detailed above are only on the Retail side of the counter. And the fact that it remains highlighted, Marketing to Joe Public.

It does make sense. A couple of Weeks ago China, the worlds second largest economy reported a drop in refining due to reduced demand. At Opec Saudi extended it’s 1m cut until the end of Q1 but did not cut any more. Reason Saudi Aramco previously reported a massive 23% drop in profits. Opec+ agreed to cut but ‘only’ voluntary with no guarantees & as the Oil price drops they too are loosing revenue. Oil Traders are taking advantage of the situation, which is how it works.

So what of Tullow & it’s new Investor that bought 30m share in June. They have the set up to be an active Investor but as yet appear to be dormant leaving the Industry to work the stock. What is their objective & risk appetite ?

As always in the absence of any training whatsoever, take a wild guess, place your bets & gamble responsibly.

Good posts Power. Personally I’m amassed that this has re entered the FT250. Missing a wonderful opportunity to take the SP down & stimulate the all important Order Flow. Which pays the wages & bonuses. There appears to be a conflict between standard listing price management & keeping clients satisfied. At least for now.

Yes PI’s being worked well here. I note the market size has increased from 3k to 20k, to enable more money can be taken off them. What’s the next leg down pennies ?

Hi MD, those who you think are your enemy may in fact be your friends & vice versa.

Another wonder stock that folk here are supposedly invested in is HZM. Over the past 2 Months that has descended from £1.25 to currently 8p. The losses must be eye watering. If you wish to be lead down the garden path then follow these intelligent posters. The Park bench awaits new residents.

Who’s going to waste time & money attending this AGM, no one. That said there should be a bicycle shed provided at the rear of the building, next to the food bank.

Remember when there use to be daily EV posts on ear, what wonderful distraction. Nothing to do with how the Stock Market works or how to make money in it. The Stock Market from Joe Publics perception of it, comes at a cost.

Many thanks to the Industry for engineering a great Trade, capitalising off the original genuine seller’s trade. Commiserations to all that had money taken off them during the process, but that’s how a Tree-Shake & the Stock Market works. It’s a zero sum game, you only make money by taking it off someone else & that’s all this was, a Tree-Shake.

Someone’s decided that today’s the day for a bounce, PI’s being worked well as usual.

Hi Anton, sorry to say but I don’t see that happening. At all other times to filling Client orders bottom line is that like food Supermarkets the Industry makes it’s money off the General Public. If volumes are low, SP’s are taken down to stimulate activity. As you are only too aware if someone indicates that they want to buy a large amount of stock they only have to get on the phone & the SP is plummeted for them. Which doesn’t add the value needed to increase the Market Cap. After the order filling the stock reverts back to the primary activity. Possibly with less PI participants than before due to sentiment damage. If it’s struggling at 34p a higher price isn’t going to help traded volumes. Only 2 years ago TLW had 17 Market Maker now it’s down to 10, not enough activity to support 17. However a decision could be made to rerate this ‘group’ of oil stocks, if so that would override the above.

Take a look at GKP,TLW,ENQ & HBR’s graphs. They have all been moved down to a Lower-Trading-Range. Why many reasons, apart from lack of profits, Oil stocks are out of favour, UK Stock Market very low PI participation & this has reduced further due to the cost of living & that Non-Risk deposit accounts pay 5%. In case you haven’t noticed Markets have been selling off for Weeks. Not to mention if you want a stock to rise ‘Investors’ need to buy at higher & higher prices. Buying huge amounts at prices below ‘Long-Term-Averages’ does not increase the Market Cap.

There are lots of other technical aspects applicable but that’s not discussed on these bb’s. Credit to Anton though for his research.

Isn’t it wonderful how share prices are taken down so buyers can acquire at a fraction of their long term averages. One would assume that a buyer would cause an increase in the price, but not if listed on the UK Stock Market. Makes a mockery of Investing theory. So what do you do if there’s a buyer around, why Short it of cause….

Hi Sup, your spot on. Just to clarify by Industry I mean Exchange members who enjoy privileges over other professional participants like Funds, Hedgefunds & Family Offices. As We can see the chitchat continues to sing from the same hymn book entitled We are unaware of what we don’t know. So here’s a very important element that posters never consider: ‘Share-Pricing’. As you will be aware TLW has traded in three distinctive price channels since June. Each with slightly different makeup’s & objectives. So if the value involved in moving TLW up or down by one penny at any price level is only £143k, how come millions can be traded in channels / price bands without moving the price ? What is the relationship between the X/Y axis ? This has recently been touched upon on the BOO bb without posters realising it. Here’s another example: the textbooks & net will tell you that candle makeup comprises of matched buyers & sellers at different price levels to generate the candle. Which is a correct explanation but what actually takes place is somewhat different.

It is curious that the General Public are on a completely different page to the Industry that manages the listings. The Stock Market works the way I guess it too, not the way it actually does. When stocks do move some say that there is no rhyme or reason. So folks play with the Stock Market, post on ear, then disappear, then newbies turn up.

SP’s are moved down to assist filling Client orders. Shorts can be reconciled with Long to transfer the profit on the Short to the loss on the Long. Which will be equal profit / loss, to devalue the input cost. Your not allowed to exercise your own quotes so it involves two parties. Note dependant on how a Short is closed, extracts value from the Market Cap. But there are ways to avoid that. The knowledge you are seeking is Industry in house trained in this specific area & not easy to come by.

Wolf, your asking the right questions but unfortunately you wont get the answers on these retail bb’s. PI’s only focus on the company fundamentals & what they can find on the net. The whole system operates on Shorts in many ways. Even for PI trades but they don’t know it. It’s obvious but it’s of no interest. As I have been told many times people don’t want to know what’s under the bonnet. In fairness it hugely complicated & takes time to understand.

Shh… it’s moving up

Looks like this is starting to go back up