Member Info for DestituteBroker

Hi Supercooper, all shares are managed by the Industry. But FT100 companies have large external participants which even thing up. It just depends on the circumstances of the stock. Tullow has a very low PI ownership & 80% more Industry participation than ENQ. Coupled by low volume.

Any pullback with Oil from ‘dizzy-heights’ & the stock gets hammered with Shorts. Completely needlessly apart from to try to generate trading activity. Spooked PI’s sell & Day-Trades buy at the bottoms, only to sell on a small increase, stifling the rise. 50p is obviously too high an SP for Tullow & the guys managing the stock don’t have the aptitude to encourage enough new business value to take the stock up. Result so far, a nice 12 Month Side-Channel.

Looks like a third leg of Shorts going in. Flat or negative close. Broker forecasts really need to be aware of how the Industry are managing this stock price before making ridiculous predictions. More focus on Shorting that taking the stock up. POG, up 140% in the last two days, little wonder PI’s are loosing interest.

On the up. Tullow has congestion at this price level. When it has been cleared, it should follow Oil & that be up, that be. Maybe today or might take until tomorrow or even Friday. Quite an absence of PI’s buying as usual, shameful.

This platform as with others guess if the trade is a buy or a sell. It’s just a ruff rule of thumb on a ‘free-site’. Unknown means it can’t guess. If you sell, your sale can actually increase the value of a stock, it depends on the maths & circumstances. Professionals involved will use an algo to calculate the actual values in realtime. Re UT’s say part of the UT, 60% is matched at mid spread this will not change the sp at all. Any balance traded above or below mid spread will. This & other elements is why the volume doesn’t correlate with the total value involved. Theoretically we can agree to match a trade OTC or off book, at any price & report it to the exchange. Exercising trades at Ask & Bid is trading in it’s most basic form. There are lots of other ways to obtain better prices.

Hi Starboard, sorry, yep Venezuela is 600k bpd. Both Venezuela & Iran look unlikely to be supplying anytime soon. With the stock sitting at the lows savvy traders will buy & take profits. This can be dealt with by an Ascending-Triangle. As the rising bottoms make the trading range unprofitable for Daytraders & the stock can then progress upwards. Low traded volume is an issue for Tullow. There is a time to Daytrade & a time to hold, problem is not everyone knows.

WTI £100.36 + 5.37 + 5.68% Brent $104.05 + 6.03 + 6.15%

Report out yesterday predicts the biggest supply crisis in decades, commencing in April. Russian Oil 8mbpd is currently still being supplied on contracts struck prior to the war but there are no new contracts, which will cause the supply crisis. China & India are the only countries buying Russian Oil. There is an Opec meeting on the 31st March. It is possible that the war could end but it would take time to unwind the sanctions. Saudi could add 1.8mbpd, Iran 1mbpd & Venezuela 600mbpd. Interesting times. This changes so quick it’s difficult to keep up.

Morning PGee, your quite correct the stock was ‘moved down’ as a result of the PI trades, which killed the gradual rise. Alternatively the PI could have broke his order up, averaging it for minimum impact or sold his position in the After Market at mid spread causing virtually zero impact. He’s obviously not a sophisticated trader.

Hi Arnold, if you go into this in detail you will find out that nothing is as you would expect. Share pricing is a very detailed subject. You can buy all day & reduce the value of a stock & vice versa. I do smile when the Industry takes the stock up & PI’s sell only to see the stock continue to rise. What goes through their minds I wonder. Hedgefunds, Family offices, Market Making, Prop Desk support, Prop desk trading, use of the Turquoise venue. Order routing, different venue types, quote & order. Extensive use of shorts in all their forms not just the most obvious & basic, general / standard micro & macro Industry trades. Ie daily, Weekly, 6 Month or up to two yearly trades. It’s possible to look at a candle & work out the values involved, how it was made up & thus what the Industry are doing. Ie are they disposing of Long stock before they take the stock down or closing a specifically priced batch of shorts, before they take the stock up. That said PI’s do trade successfully from charts without knowing the mechanics that crate them. They just recognise the paten. Basically all the stuff that’s not discuss on these bb’s, in part because people don’t know & or have no interest in. In fairness you can’t ask the question if you don’t know it exists & there’s no instruction book for Joe Public. I get the impression from these bb’s that PI’s are totally oblivious to the fact that there is an Industry operating in the background. It’s just a sweetshop, no concept that it only exists to make a profit. That said the Industry is marketed as ‘investing’, which conjures up the wrong image, it should really be labelled under a casino because of the odds. Anyway most PI’s prefer to Invest & let someone else do the work. The Industry knows this & facilitate it, usually not to the PI’s benefit. I’ll add, how to buy or sell a large quantity of stock to obtain the best price ,without impacting the share price. One guy sold two lots x 100k shares today resulting in the sp dropping back just after 14:00, not really the way to do it.

Tullow has 80% more Industry participation than Enquest, this is why it trades differently. Or as some would say, at a higher beta. The industry contribution in it’s different forms is a taboo subject not discussed on these Retail bb’s & for obvious reasons.

WTI $94.62 – 8.35 – 8.08% Brent $98.81 – 7.90 – 7.39%

40p was support last year when markets were rising. This time it’s different, markets are falling due to many factors. Everything is negative even Oil now, which might pull back to the $70’s, in which case Tullow will probable be below 40p. There was a Death-Cross on the stock on the 14th. But we don’t discuss graphs on this bb do we.

Amazing how quickly things change. Oil was a perfect storm to the up side. Now it’s a perfect storm to the down side. Covid resurgence & lock downs in China spooking the market. War, pressure on Opec to cut prices to try to avert a global recession, which is probably inevitable now. Tullow has recently had a base line price of 40 to 50p with occasional spikes to 60p+. However that may change if markets continue to fall over the coming Weeks & Months.

Hi Arnold, the share price might in-part be based on those calculations, but ultimately it’s based on the positions held by the Industry, how they adjust them & where they want the price to be. Achieved by the adjustments. Usually wherever the most traded volume is because that’s where they make their money. Current highest traded volume is at around 53p. So I would expect the sp to oscillate around that price. The stock isn’t at the current price by random.

Oil is moving down sharply, currently just under minus 8%. Looks like WTI might fall below $100. I’m guessing that the agreed transfer price with the Funds is 50p, based on the known trading range for the preceding 12 Months. Shame because there was healthy volume being traded at 60p+. It will be interesting to where the stock is upon completion. Mid 40’s or 50’s.

This is the re-rate, back to where the stock was 12 Months ago. The only difference is that although Oil is down, it’s still around 75% high, so hopefully there should be a little upside to come. That said we wouldn’t want the UK market to over do it.

Oil around $106 / $110, are things really so bad ? or just a good opportunity to short the stock doon. Anyone want to sell, remember the Funds need that stock & the lower the price the bigger the Industry bonus.

The US has band Russian Oil & Opec has indicated that it might be able to make up the shortfall, which has spooked the market. Iran has since said that there is no need. Technically nothing has happened, just discussion. Nothing to do with Tullow apart from an opportunity to short sell it. All being well Oil should recover in the coming days & as Tullow’s pricing algo tracks Oil, the share price should follow.

If the Industry are filling Index Fund client ‘buy’ orders. Hocus-pocus should be expected between now & the 15th. The pullback in Oil has exaggerated this. Consider the shares are Tullow in ‘name only’, Tullow sold them & relinquished control at floatation.

The US bans Russian Oil, about 8% of it’s imports & this causes the price to go down. Oil rallied on the expected news yesterday but the sector is down today. As WTI is a US benchmark one would expect this to increase the price. So is this a temporary move & a buying opportunity…. ?