Member Info for DestituteBroker

Financial TV has just stated that Goldman are forecasting Brent at $80 by year end. If this materialises it means that Oil will return to it’s trend line. I do wonder if this is just marketing bumf, time will tell.

Hi Spud, thanks for the reply & hope your well. I will take that as status quo ie waiting for a JV or TA, as per the last decade. Re your previous post, are they not both, the same person.

WTI now up 5%, over $65 & TLW side-channelling at 43.27. Looks like the Industry has dune a grand job of killing off Tullow’s performance. Value extraction at it’s finest.

Can someone please advise: what happens after the TEO review ? something or nothing ? or is this just the usual Marketing & Sales campaign, thanks

So who took the price up to off load a large position ? Selling to PI’s at higher & higher prices, far more profitable than selling to Market Makers. Don’t you just love Illiquid stocks.

200 Day M/A for WTI is $60.20 & Brent $63.03. It’s possible that Oil will drop to these averages. Oil production is increasing this Month by 400mbpd, which meets head on with reduced demand reported in July, due to global covid. Currently there appears to be no support for OIL after the US has discovered ‘inflation’ & politically needs fuel at the pump below $4 a gallon, which means Oil at no more than $70. Some think that Oil will fall below $60 short term, due to current circumstances & $70+ was just over exuberance . Yes TLW will probably bounce next Month but to what & from what. Place your bets.

Low volume is an issue. If more PI’s sold, the stock would have a better chance of moving up.

Yep, that be the way, the game is played. The Oil price is irrelevant really but can help the process.

You know that this stock is actively traded by a Hedge Fund. If this is a standard trade, the stock should rise after the side-channel accumulation process. Problem is the low volume due to the time of year & as such, the more PI’s that can be induced to sell the better.

Moresmash hi, that’s just the publicised retail side, short positions. What about the Industry positions ?

US market sell off prior to Co earnings out next Week. Usual stuff, odds are the US market will just rally back up, as the smart money goes back in. Re Oil, Opec+ meeting in a couple of Weeks or so to asses the position. With any luck the UK FT100 will rise back above the 6999 high that it made 21 years ago, & a few times since.

The answer to this is share pricing, something very relevant but overlooked & not discussed on these bb’s. Apart from the obvious ie buying, selling & shorting. The industry makes it’s money from volume-order-flow, specifically profit from PI’s. So the price will be moved to where the most volume can generate the most business.
Currently the 6 Month highest traded volume is at around 53.50 & 3 Month is 59.70. So I would expect the share price to gravitate around these prices. Risk control is also very relevant as any short positions must be maintained above the Bid, for obvious reasons. Enquest trades at a lower price simply due to less traded volume from PI’s.

Interesting, in June Opec+ forecast a demand increase in H2 2021 of up to 6mbpd. Current demand is 2mbpd above production, causing reserve draw downs. Very difficult to see Oil going in any other direction than up.

Shed some light on it…. how about a fog
The days total closing value is minus £690,194.07 = 47.33
The closing UT is 47.33 x 1m324,772 = £627,014.60
This means that the stock sold over the day & prior to the UT was only £63,179.47 representing a share price prior to the UT of around 51.718.
Also the stock opened down by £208,630.09, which unless this was recovered should be in addition to the UT value.
Maybe one of the Prop Desk Traders pulling the strings can answer your question ?
One US analyst is still forecasting WTI to be $77 by September, due to the current supply demand imbalance causing draw downs.

September WTI Futures has been running at around 75 cents below this Months. Currently $71.43, this Months contract $71.86. So almost parity taking into account the current news.

Saudi & the UAE have agreed a compromise to allow the UAE to pump more Oil. Exact figures not worked out yet. This is good news because it means that the UAE will not walk away from the table & the Oil supply will be managed.

JMAX hi, has the confidence really gone ? who’s doing the selling, a Fund closing out a large position with RNS’s pending, PI’s working in concert or is it someone else with a different agenda ? If Tullow is back at 66 or 70+ in a few Weeks time, you will have your answer.

Apparently the World is currently running at 2mbpd undersupply. We can only guess as to what Oil prices will be over the summer. Some think $85 to $90.

Hi Jeffrey, some might say the over reaction with oil is due to the possible break up of Opec+ as to who gets the production increase, but is that really likely ? Also Iran / West tensions, are increasing over enrichment. Either way & more importantly, lets hope the PI traded volume remains elevated, for the guys running the show.

Maybe the best is yet to come. WTI futures are showing $68 for next Month but as yet nothing has changed re production levels. Some are forecasting $90 oil this summer due to the holiday driving season. Intriguing & hopefully profitable times ahead.