Member Info for Danger_Mouse

GG, they’re too rich, no argument from me. Even smaller names like PAF are getting overpriced, which is why I sold out a while back. That’s exactly why we’re down here waiting to catch the next wave.

What’s your position? SRB is 14 percent of my AUM and my target is 10 percent, so I’m a net seller. How are you positioned?

Positive upward pressure in the precious metals space. The junior gold mining index GJGB is gathering some volume. Money flowing into small caps in general as well as gold. Fed rates tomorrow.

I should include it is not just the action of a rate cut. That is price in already. It's the tone that will impact the long end of yields.

Just a reminder that Fed rate move could move gold ahead of the AGM. Just something to consider for new investors.

GoldGeezer, it sounds like you’re simply overexposed to SRB. Most investors size positions based on risk, not conviction. If you rate the risk at 8 out of 10, then THX shouldn’t be more than 2 percent of AUM so a 2 percent hit is irrelevant. I rate the risk closer to 3 out of 10, so I’m comfortable allocating around 10 percent. I can absorb a 10 percent drawdown because the broader portfolio can deliver 14 to 30 percent a year, and I rebalance back to target weights every six months. For me SRB continues to be a cash machine I can afford to go to zero.

Canela, there is no official rule saying the LI is late. The only reason people think it is overdue is because SRB kept saying it was getting closer and should be sorted in months, and then nothing happened. The temporary licence runs to 2027 so the authorities are under no pressure at all. It is only seen as a delay because the company talked it up too early. From the regulators point of view this is just normal slow Brazil stuff.

Gold probably has a path upwards for anther another 3-5 years before any bear crash happens to the price of gold (historically based), and so the gold price is another greater risk. With a high risk portfolio gold and gold minors should make up no more than 40% with the rest in stocks and bonds. No single stock greater than 8-10%.

All this risks considered we are in a cautious bull market (the best type historically) and should remain invested in the market and gold for the next legs up.

I think I broke the webpage becuase my less than and more than symbols caused an error int he HTML. I will repost and attempt to fix at the bottom:

EV/EBITDA: ~1.5–2.0x (depending on gold price)

P/E: 4x

FCF yield: 25%

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Apologies that should be, THX based on last results continuing:

EV/EBITDA: ~1.5–2.0x (depending on gold price)

P/E: 25%

A better diversify than MAFL or GPM/GDXJ is to simply hold Gold, and if you need the same volatility as the minors then you simply add leverage like 2BUL.

The thing is though, SRB's forward numbers based on last results can not be matched:

EV/EBITDA: ~1.5–2.0x (depending on gold price)

P/E: 25%

Lesser companies are at all time highs. THX is lagging.

Red herring is the political problem. There is nothing here that points to a hidden political problem, just Brazilian bureaucracy at its worst. The LP was granted, the studies were done and accepted, and the LI is stuck in the usual slow cycle of reviews and re reviews.

I have looked into the indigenous land issue and it is not what people think. The mine is not on indigenous land and the objections were mainly about noise traffic and general environmental impact, which is standard for Brazil. FUNAI asked for extra studies a few years back and SRB completed everything. The real problem has been slow bureaucracy and agencies not replying for months at a time rather than any conflict with local communities. Coringa keeps operating which tells you the situation is not hostile and nothing has ever suggested this project will be blocked. As mentioned no operation or commodity prices is without risk and a diversified portfolio allows you to take profits while limitting the downside. If you look at diversified index or a fund shooting the lights out, its only one or two companies driving the upside. At the moment SRB (and to THX to be fair) should continue to drive the outsized returns at a fairly low risk level.

Portfolios should be diversified and positioned according to risk, say 5-10% of AUM. As big rise is possible at SRB and profits should be taken on the way up and if the license fails (I don't see why, environmentally and socially sound) then your portfolio takes only a 2.5 to 5% hit. As risks go.... no miner is risk free unless they have diversified operations globally. We understand the risk at SRB and i am sure everyone is positioned to capture the upside and minimise the downside.

Hi GoldGeezer, fair points — but I think the licensing angle gets overstated and ends up distorting the whole valuation debate.

SRB isn’t “unlicensed”, it’s stuck in the usual Brazilian permitting labyrinth. I’ve had some exposure to Brazilian mining before, and nothing moves quickly unless you’re a major with political weight. The reasons haven’t changed because the process hasn’t changed — same agencies, same paperwork, same delays. It’s bureaucratic inertia, not a hidden disaster.

The mines themselves are fully legal, fully operating and throwing off serious cash. We’ve just seen record production, record grades, record cash growth and the strongest exploration results they’ve ever posted. You can’t discount all of that to zero just because Coringa’s paperwork is crawling through the system.

Would I prefer the licence? Of course. But pinning six years of delay on SRB misses the reality on the ground. They’ve done everything asked of them — the bottleneck is state-level process, not the asset or the company.

If anything, the market has already priced SRB as if the Coringa licence never arrives. That’s exactly why I think “fair value” sits higher, not lower. The licence is upside optionality — the base case is what they’re already delivering operationally.

No, Serabi still hasn’t actually explained the jump in admin expenses, and Graham Neary is right to flag it. None of the 2025 RNS updates touch it, which is frustrating because it’s the only line item moving the wrong way while everything else is hitting records.

That said, nothing in the numbers hints at anything sinister. Cash is piling up, grades are the best they’ve ever had, production is rock-solid, Coringa is clearly scaling, and the exploration success is miles ahead of previous years. It looks far more like a “gearing up for growth” cost bump than any kind of structural problem.

If this admin spike is simply SRB staffing up and loading the organisation ahead of the production step-up, then it’s noise, not a thesis break. Once the accounts clarify what’s going on, the market will likely look straight past it. On the fundamentals, SRB is still one of the cheapest, highest-margin, highest-grade gold names on the LSE, and the set-up into 2026 looks far stronger than the market is pricing in.

Latest US jobs numbers may push money into Gold as US markets open, even away from Silver thats has (or experiencing) a liquidity squeeze. Only the best quality gold stocks held up in the latest dip including SRB.

Genghis15 thanks for the list of active Tusts, interesting to see performance when they are all plotted into a chart.

Gold and gold miners are the sensible buy today, especially THX, while silver is the one to be trimming! Silver’s track record is brutal. It swings on hype, squeezes and technical FOMO, and those spikes usually end badly if you are on the wrong side of the volatility. Gold is behaving like a trend; silver is behaving like a trap.

And SILV is the basket of silver miners to diversify THX.

So many good companie sin Canada and you can simply buy a basket of these using GJGB to diversify THX. Less monitoring to do when you hold the index.

There’s been a bit of selling pressure holding the share price back, but that’s exactly why a diversified portfolio matters. It gives you the room to take advantage of asymmetric moves when they come. I have added.