RE: Trading Update17 Jan 2026 17:49
Corryvreckan1, you're playing a very smart game of "Technical Chess." Using those stacked moving averages and the long-term downtrend channel to argue that sentiment hasn’t actually shifted yet is textbook technical analysis. For someone who backs this "drift" theory so convincingly, being long seems at odds with someone so smart. If the "concrete floor" is truly expected to fail and the stock is heading to the 870s, a rational trader would typically exit and wait for that level rather than holding through the pain.
The current battle is clearly defined by two different schools of thought. You are putting the case for the Trend, which remains a formidable opponent, while I am betting on the Math of the buyback. The pivot point is 919p. If we open Monday and stay below 919p, your drift theory gains merit and the technicals suggest the market is still respecting the overhead resistance. However, if we break that level, those inversely stacked moving averages start to look like fuel for a trend reversal and a squeeze on the new shorts from AHL Partners.
The argument regarding the 25% daily volume limit is interesting, but I believe it actually reinforces the bull case. Because the company cannot simply dump £42.5m into the market in a single week to spike the price, they are forced to be a persistent and structural "buyer of last resort" every single day. This creates a slow-motion supply shock. By clearing out the overhang at the close through trades like Friday's £778.10k UT at 909p, they are effectively drying up the liquidity that funds like Marshall Wace and AHL need to exit their short positions quietly.
The long-term downtrend is real, and the rejection at 969p earlier this week proves the market is still wary. But trends only look impossible right up until the moment they break. By maintaining a long position while arguing for a slide to the 870s, you are essentially admitting you're afraid of missing the very "whiplash" you are mocking. We will see at the 8:00 AM open on Monday whose floor holds up.
As for forgiveness over the use of "dollar", my partner won't be forgiving me for spending so long composing this over the weekend either.