Member Info for Danger_Mouse

GoldGeezer where can I go to short SRB and if it goes the wrong way am I forced to close the short. In addition can I hold on to it in an open short state til the day I die?

Market has been slow to re-rate Thor given the gold price. I am somewhat new here. Is this the forward news flow:

Near-term catalysts (0–6 months)

1. Douta PFS release (Q4 2025) - big one

2. Updated Segilola resource (Q1 2026)

3. Continuation of 90k–95k oz delivery

4. Gold price trend into H1 2026 :-)

Medium-term (6–24 months)

2. Starting development at Douta

3. Cote d'Ivoire drill results

4. Underground Segilola plan clarity

5. Any M&A activity - Thor now a viable bolt-on target for mid-tier Africa players?

That’s not right. Palito wouldn’t suddenly jump anywhere near USD 5k AISC if Coringa stopped. It’s never operated at anything close to that level in its entire history.

The current AISC of $1,816/oz includes all the Coringa development, sorter work, extra metres and overhead. Strip that out and Palito has always run much lower. There’s nothing in the RNS or the older numbers that supports a $5k figure.

It just doesn’t stack up.

Think about the upside on getting the licence around 550p.

"Lighter" should be "Higher". Even Coringa is somewhat factored into the share price.

The market has fully factored in AISC into the share price. Its not a competition to see who has the lowest AISC and infact ligher AISC is better if you believe gold is going upto $5000. What really matters is the direction of AISC and the direction of TAX and production etc....

Costs are really only up 1.5 percent over one year... That's actually pretty good considering inflation. I think it was my production numbers that had been too optimistic. The market doesn't care what I think so we shall see.

Net-net: operationally this is a very strong set of numbers (EBITDA nearly doubled, cash and net assets sharply up), but once you layer in high AISC, full tax, higher D&A and a slightly lower realised gold price, the reported profit and EPS will naturally come in below my back-of-the-envelope bull case. There’s no nasty hidden negative in the RNS, just less operating leverage to gold on paper than my top-down estimate assumed.

We are still looking at one of the easiest 100% re-ratings in the gold mid-tier space and the numbers stand at:

P/E 4–5

EV/EBITDA 2–3

Perhaps we had them on the 14th Oct RNS?

Yes they can hedge Gold or other commodities including sub sectors like wind power through Marex Group PLC.

Its a standard pattern. You take the risk ahead of results. When the results come in we profit take for taking the risk.

History suggests that when equities fall sharply, gold and the miners usually get dragged down in the panic before resuming their upward trend. You could make a speculative case for gold pushing toward five thousand while equities keep sliding, but if and when stocks finally bottom, gold has a habit of selling off as well. Markets rarely repeat perfectly, but they do tend to rhyme, so treat the tidy narrative with caution. These time frames play out protracted while emotions think they happen sooner. For now Gold is being bought by Asia over the long time frame. SRB is strong and worth holding... a smaller nibble of THX tomorrow may be good given it has not risen along with SRB and others.

With gold hitting 4100 dollars today and FOMO investors flushed out of gold, Serabi is moving into serious cash machine territory. At this price, FY earnings explode higher, pushing the forward P/E down towards the low 4s and the EV EBITDA into the high 2s even before any production growth or resource expansion is priced in. Grades are rising, production is at record levels and the company is already net cash, so every extra dollar in the gold price drops straight to the bottom line. If gold holds anywhere near 4100 dollars, Serabi rerates hard because the valuation simply becomes too cheap to ignore.

Reasonable dip. I've added across all my account as stable earner with short-term bounce back ability based on failed merger.

Its actually a benefit if the share price declines ahead of results if you plan to hold. We all want a surprise to the upside... costs reducing and inflation under control critical factors as most others things are "known" or "factored in".

Just adding some balance because not everyone is buying gold. The Russian National Wealth Fund held 405.7 tons of gold before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then the Finance Ministry has sold 57 percent, which is 232.6 tons, to cover budget shortfalls. That leaves 173.1 tons as of 1 November.

The point is that even in a strong gold market there are major players who are forced sellers when government finances are stretched. That kind of supply can cap the upside in the short term.

It does not change the bigger picture for SRB because the share price is driven mainly by production, costs and the realised gold price. But it is a reminder that the gold market always has two sides, even when the long term direction looks positive.

Still massively bullish, just keeping it honest.

Gold is starting to look properly strong now and if this continues, SRB is one of the clearest beneficiaries on the London market. We are not talking about a speculative “maybe one day” miner. We are already seeing the cash generation at three thousand dollar gold, so you can imagine what the numbers look like with gold holding above four thousand dollars for months.

Run it through the model. Even using conservative assumptions, full year earnings land well above fifty million dollars, probably nearer the top end if the fourth quarter keeps the pace. That puts us on a forward price to earnings ratio of around three. For a debt free, high grade underground producer in a tier one jurisdiction, that is absurdly low. People are still pricing SRB using old margins which makes no sense when both production and realised grade are improving while costs are coming down.

The licence talk comes and goes, but the fundamentals do not. The financial leverage to gold at these levels is huge. This is what a re rating environment looks like: strong metal price, strong operations, improving costs, and a market that has not caught up yet.

If gold holds anything like this level, two hundred forty to two hundred sixty will look cheap in hindsight. The earnings power alone pushes this into the three hundreds once the market adjusts.

One of the only junior miners on AIM where the risk and reward genuinely favours holders. The numbers can speak for themselves.

If they can then yes. We are investing in business

If you think gold is going to skyrocket forever then buy a 3 or more leveraged physical gold ETF.

Bazza is that based on their their usual reporting rhythm

I couldn’t find a firm confirmed date for the next full results???

Based on Q3 I would expect revenue in the region of$85–90m driven by $3k+ gold with EBITDA $35-40m. We should all see margin expansion from lower costs so a net profit $18–22m.

...or need to prove up more resource, or have a looming TAX cliff increase, or running out of high grade....