Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Quality companies stay strong on pullbacks. We can see the small junior gold and silver ETF's fall and SRB hold.

If you find anything better on "metrics ", you have to consider SRB's qualitative factors like Brazil’s better-understood risk, net cash, and ongoing exploration success at Palito/Coringa.

What holding RNS? Oh right... its not showing on this website but it is there on:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SRB/serabi-gold-plc/analysis

High quality miners like FRES recover on pullbacks. In the small cap space only SRB is truly high quality with large enough resource base, growth, tear 1 region and share ownership not in family hands. SRB is a GARP stock. Buy the dip like FRES.

...and it will recover at??? 58p?

It healthy to take profit. Most members have. They just don't post that they do. Some may have started adding again. Nothing to worry about.

CAML is cheap anyway, but I did expected results would be negative with inflationary factors. Buybacks are good news. I don't hold but was looking at these results to get some.

The update helps on the resource base SRB need before committing to a 100koz mine plan. Superb.

Currently cheaper to buy than sell!

X30 is hard to justify. But the quality re-occurring revenue contracts, balance sheet and small market cap does indicate that it can grow into its valuation. Other than Microsoft that is more, CER is my most expensive single stock by a considerable margin.

Good news ahead of results. Fair discounted value at 1500p based on last placing. Hoping for 2000p post results and general FTSE250 recovery.

Buybacks I would agree mathematically being a P/E of 3.... but right now would only help Fratelli Investments Limited to exit at a good price and hinder the buyer of that stock be it institutions or like me new to this stock who are still adding. Buybacks 💯 help sellers as it avoids any dividend TAX see BP as an example.

I suppose a buyback not a permanent thing so when it stops SBR won't get outflows from income seekers.

We don't need analyst targets for mining as it's simple math balanced with macroeconomic factors.

I'm intrigued by the dividend debate. Maybe that is the reason why SRB is down here with the low P/E stocks? I have always believed SRB should focus on organic growth by reinvesting all cash to achieve our ambitious 3-5 year plan without taking on debt. If SRB opt for a dividend, it should be paired with a premium equity raise to accelerate the 3-5 year plan to 4 years. I don't think SRB are in a position to do this - who would pay that? A simple dividend would slow growth down, SRB would also have to be hedging the gold price due to its reliance on paying a dividend to income seekers who run when income is at risk. Income seekers down here typically want a higher risk premium on the yield. It changes the dynamics. I don't like the idea of a dividend, but would vote for one as a means to exit SRB at a much higher price.

@RetiredBanker Is the market merely assessing sustainable profitability, or are there other issues with these low P/E companies? We should be evaluating their location in a mining-friendly country, the longevity of their resource, their shareholder-friendly policies, and their exposure to risks like third-party feedstock supply or FX shocks. After accounting for these factors, does SRB still qualify as a peer?

The trend for the gold price is a pattern of moving sideways, then up, then sideways again, and repeating. Many investors are in 2x or 3x leveraged gold ETFs, and some are even in leveraged silver! They will eventually sell those positions in sideways action to rotate into either unleveraged physical gold/ETFs or gold miners. This could start with juniors like SRB, or larger producers like FRES and the other major caps.

The big caps will likely be the first to benefit from this inflow of money before it trickles down. Now, I know I might sound like a smart-arse here, especially when I know far less about these smaller companies than many of you, but I have been around a while.

Liquidity down here yes and they have been reducing for some time. Theoretically we all know at any moment in time on the transactions there has to be a seller for every buyer, even in those stocks spiking, however, there is always more net selling or net buying and that determines the share price direction. Investors have stayed away from here while we quietly sell those and place into SRB to compound gains made in other stocks with much more net buying pressure. Either SRB has to step up or the rest of the gold stocks have to step down to SRB valuations.

I understand your frustration. The sustained selling over the past few months has undoubtedly discouraged the usual trading activity, suppressing the share price. However, Serabi's fundamentals remain strong. It likely requires just one more significant institutional buyer to trigger a breakout, which often happens when it's least expected. With gold itself on an upward march, the conditions are aligning. I maintain ample liquidity in other metal related stocks to continue buying at these levels, positioning us for a potential and powerful catch-up rally!

Fratelli Investments Limited have been selling SRB, this is what is putting a cap on any spike. I am happy with that as it is nothing to do with the fundamentals here and I happy to take stock of their hands.

Thanks for the update on the financials, but most would not agree with management are aligned with shareholders over there for two reasons being inheritance avoidance and taking a company private, but lets not get into that. I'll take another look but happy with lower risks.

Parabolic moves that become spikes are typically caused by traders, not investors. We don't know if those moves will become spikes yet. Sometimes, when a company has more speculative assets, there are no fundamentals to drag it down. Does that make sense?

Thankfully, as expected, there was some good buying of SRB today. ALTN is not as strong a company as many of you think. Its higher multiple is not justified in my opinion, especially because of the high level of family share ownership, which exceeds that of other shareholders. This creates a conflict of goals.

SRB has none of that. It has good ownership, a very strong balance sheet, and operates in much safer regions! While questions over growth may be a headwind for multiple expansion, the flip side is that the downside is more limited.

I do expect a modest step up though as the gold price rises...