Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Hopefully had a bottom when it briefly went 20% I bought. Got some more on Friday. Good time to buy.

Thanks Tobin. Shame there is no video link and not in London. As PI with a full-time job with "only" £20K in this I really can't justify a trip to Guernsey. Hopefully, we can move up from that £12m trade reported socking up the massive buys earlier last week.

Let's just move on. Unless you work at the company you don't really know if it was poor management or tough luck.

This must surely now be THE peek of pessimism. In the days and weeks ahead this should creep back up to about 60p and we simply start again but with increasingly less rust and a few more repairs. There is nothing with this level of low risk through diversification on AIM and a massive beta with M&A.

Spread apears very wide in anticipation of the results. Oil price in the first half has been poor but the majors share prices have remained strong so the stock market if always right is anticipating much higher oil prices this year.

Vetta I am looking for multi decade investments. Natural gas in the region should remain strong for many decades to come as it is a transition feul.

As a non-expert in gas and I am attempting to quantify the amount of gas that sounds huge. I presume the next drill in 2024 will provide P50 numbers. This will provide Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) and in my head quantify the find? Are you able to point me in the direction of the best and latest research on BOIL?

Most of my stocks hit close to price targets. Price targets are always a 1-year view. If the stock is less diversified by risk as is typical with PI's then your going to struggle to get close. Going forward JSE will be better diversified and in a better position to grow and you can now see where the SP will be in 1-years time depending on the oil price. There is nothing with this level beta and diversification on AIM.

Not great. Should bounce back at some point when net sellers are out.

I used to do peer comparisons about 20 years ago until I realised it was absolutely useless as all companies are unique. If you must then Kistos is not a good one to use as its gas focus on the transition (great story) while JSE is Oil with potentially 5000 of oil equivalent in gas produced next year. JSE are in better Tax region than Europe.

In my experience, it is best to scatter gun and buy lots of companies at low prices during periods of peak pessimism.

Looking forward to the results on Tuesday. I will be on the call. It will help determine how much cash we have as the investment Montara would have cost some and so Tuesday could be peak pessimism!

Hope he will be re-investing the dividends.

Is there a pause in buybacks? No RNS.

So it looks like the decline in the share price was PI like us. I have bought back in what I had sold.

This has passed oversold...?

BushyTailed could be right. No mention of costs and inflation. You need to work it out. Its negative. Share price that was overbought is heading towards oversold.... then back up again at some point.

Now the forward gas price is pointing lower and lower, we are all talking about selling gas (seen it in other forums) but its the buyer of these assets that will make a killing... the time to sell gas was in December.

"Soon" we all know gas won't recover imminently. Gas is always going to swing to extremes depending on the season and weather. Stocks are geared plays on the main commodity and the main commodity here is oil.

Its late and "heavy oil" should have typed "oil".

happysparrow, AXL is very much heavy oil and is why I am adding here and not into gas plays like SOUC, DEC, I3E etc... The amount of gas at AXL is reassuringly low making AXL one of the best plays on a strong Oil price.

Acerage and reserves are great and this will reflect in the SP in the long run, but the forward gas price is looking really low and I3E is one of those stocks we all need to buy in on weakness that we are likely to see all the way into summer before moving up. If you want to win on the oil price in the short-run you are better with some ETF's like SPOG, WENS or ENG. Or better recycle those profits into I3E but slowly into around August/September.

So it reads that CN will be lower risk and flow higher to provide the same net to Arrow, however, flow rates are re-assuringly conservative. The drilling program looks very simple. The next drilling program given the net cash could provide a step change in valuation. Holders here should hold for at least 5 years and I have recently started adding.

I believe it's time to move past the 'Jam Tomorrow' mentality and focus on the upcoming year up to 2024 of performance. That's what truly matters to institutions seeking a significant increase in share price. I agree with Malky that the Board of Directors has made excellent M&A decisions in terms of spending and return, and we must continue this trend.

I think the Full-Year 2022 Results on Tuesday, 25 April 2023 should be pivotal. It looks like on Friday we weeded out weak shareholders (even I sold a little, I am human too!) who've all contributed to the recent poor sentiment. In the short run, stock prices tend to fluctuate from overvalued to undervalued. Some argue that we're currently at a fair value, but I disagree. In fact, we're undervalued. Looking back to when we had been 100p, it's clear that we were overvalued given the unknown old rusty state of the Montara Venture FPSO. However, that's no longer the case. Montara was bought for peanuts and more M&A should follow...