Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Yes currently reading MC post in the bath.

Worth also reading The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. That is next once I have scrubbed my feet.

marineclark you could try and buy AXL who are very high COS mini with there low-risk onshore wells, profitable, net cash like JSE and more dependable and a tiny market cap. You may ned to fill in the Canada paperwork. If you "win" then consider buying back here in the future in time for an M&A? Good luck.

Marineclark time scales are very short-term and emotionally driven. I can see very little chance of downside news from here and can see 120p by the end of the year.

Montara may have caused the drop but I don't believe it to be the main driver of future growth. Growth has always come from M&A here. The markets will at some point start to look to the future as they are forward-looking.

Is Carrizales Norte higher risk reward?

"Things are getting back together for JSE after the trauma of Montara but production is slowly recovering, 10/- boe/d in Q1 becomes guidance for the rest of the year of 13,500-17,000 boe/d which includes Sinphuhorm and is a creditable increase.

Reserves wise as at 31 December 2022, the Group had 2P reserves of 64.8 mmboe, a 45% increase compared with year-end-2021 and a near six-fold replacement of production in the year, mainly due to Akatara reclassification plus the acquisition of CWLH fields offshore Australia.

Operating costs are up by 6% but it could have been worse, inflation has taken its toll and Jadestone are good at cost control. Capex is guide for $110-140m apparently the largest in the company’s history, primarily for Akatara and Malaysia but hopefully plenty of M&A into the bargain.

Happier times for Jadestone who report next week, I won’t be at the results meeting as the company have gone up against Petrofac and refused to cede and I can’t make dinner in North London either! Stays in Bucket List for quality of management right across the board and of course a great portfolio of assets. "
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/04/oil-price-savannah-serica-jadestone-and-finally/

Looks like full production at Montara will be slower to come online to full capacity. This will dip down before moving on up. Looks like they are being very conservative this time round and believe we should beet guidance all going well.

My theory on why we are down is OIEC funds having to sell in particular The Pacific Fund via Baillie Gifford. Being an OIEC it has to sell when customers withdraw and the withdrawals over at Baillie Gifford there are extremely large.... though I cant say its the Pacific Fund. We are talking about £16m of assets not much.

Love Nigel, an honest man.

Hate the share price. WT*!

The future production numbers are slightly lower but does not justify a fall. Bit late for recession fears as they swing from 40% to 60% according to analysts? I was in here for a smoother ride than this. I suspect as dividend was not increased due to paying off lending and this video hints at imminent M&A. Executing on M&A is the only way this going up.

IMHO all hints at a copper pre-development play. A time line around a new copper play makes total sense and a real driver for the share price. I don't think its AAZ assets as they are not low-cost enough. It will need to be an open-pit or another tailings to be a fit for CAML.

I've added 7,467 shares into my ISA ahead of the stock market closed period filling up the £20K ISA allocation. This is also the end of the TAX year and the new ISA's allocated next week. It's also a good time for a seller to complete (if there is even one?). In addition work at Montara continues and successful 100% production will attract the press for PI's and establish JSE as a quality company attractive for institutions to buy back into the strong story here.

US driving season in May is good for oil. Then later on in the year if gas prices go up there is a story there too.

Also early May is the historic dividend day and cash may be held for a dividend. I am not holding out for a rise in dividends but it is a crazy possibility.

I have a diverse enough portfolio for any eventuality to add and remain invested for the long run. I have taken a look at other quality producers like Anto***asta (LSE: ANTO) and they are all technically very bullish over the long period of time. CAML's dividend should also provide support and the copper shortage a real possibility at the end of the year or a time period shortly afterwards.

TheSoundMan that's going back even further to 2013 with an 7.5% downside here, but I am not able to share the period before 2024 on this screen grab:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCAGtWJK/

John Bogle is the basis of efficient market theory:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp

So opportunities to give us the edge are extremely stacked against us.

Ben Graham identified one way: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” This is as a result of psychology. When you want to buy then sell. When you feel you can't bring yourself to buy then buy.

CAML is on target to hit a trend line that's been there for 2 years!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/V5MtD9pI/

scoredagainsteps there is currently an opportunity to average down by using and compounding gains made elsewhere or are you all in on this? If you are all in then you are compounding knowledge by learning and adapting through diversification. Start with a world tracker like VWRP and invest in the oil companies via ETF's such as WENS.

Read John Bogle's book and move onto physiology-related investment books.

Issues happen with AIM stocks but with JSE it's its just temporary.

casapinos, that is a great post and one I am buying into along with a revival in the FTSE100, but the OP's time scale is only 9 months :-)

Andymilman patience of a Saint is required for investing. The biggest mistake investors make is that they do not have patience and sell at the bottom only to be picked up by large buyers. All shares swing from overvalued to undervalued and many sell during the undervalued range, especially the inexperienced. For LGEN an 8% recovery in share price + 8% dividend within your period is possible and the catalyst hopefully is time with no negative news. That is a very good reward to risk ratio. The only risk is being out?

Looks to me like a large buyer at 70p and the sales will be reported late at some point in the neer future. Patience is needed for potentially huge low risk rises.

Yep diversification is key so that gains can be compounded. I have reduced gains in other stocks, especially higher quality like O&G ETF's and some in similar like PTAL to fund more JSE and AXL.

To counter my own comments above when we are at the lowest point using RSI so this is where I normally buy stocks.