Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Corryvreckan1, regarding the buybacks, I think you’re missing the 'Ambush' element as a bull case of dropping the buybacks in the trading update.

Why stop the 2025 buyback early? Tactical. They used the cash to deleverage after Starface and waited for the shorters to get comfortable. By dropping an £85m wall right when the stock is at 9x P/E and shorters like Marshall Wace are still sitting on their positions, they’ve possibly set a trap.

The shorters are now 'offline.' They were betting on a drift, but now they’re facing a permanent, price-insensitive buyer (the company) for the next 24 months. If this was desperation, they’d be begging for cash. Instead, they’re using their £97m credit line and record cash flow to buy up every cheap share available. This isn't a panic; it's a disciplined squeeze and the bull case. It's a remedy to show the market that they have taken advice after the terrible mistake of inheritance tax sellers.

Yeah its bullish, as you say it gives them optionality for M&A instead of buybacks. The direction of the share price is positive, lets see if there is a sift in trend.

The share price is currently 917p. If the market believed these buybacks were "fake" or "not guaranteed," the price would likely be sliding back toward 880p. The fact it's holding suggests the big institutions believe the Board is serious. :-)

@You_Having_a_Laugh They’ve literally frozen the dividend to fund this. If they pull the buyback now, they effectively kill their 'Total Return' story and leave themselves with 4.2x dividend cover and no growth. Why would they tank their own sentiment like that?

Also, they’ve flagged £97m of undrawn liquidity. They don't even need 'new' cash to finish the 2026 tranche; they could put it on the credit card today if they wanted to. In the world of AIM-listed stocks, this is about as 'committed' as a Board can get without signing a blood oath."

Fair points on the math, Corryvreckan1. On a pure ‘velocity’ basis, you’re right, it’s a slower burn than the H1 2025. But I think the 'massive' description comes from the change in balance sheet context rather than just the absolute £ amount.

Last year, Gamma was sitting on a 'lazy' £150m cash pile. Returning £45m of that was almost a housekeeping exercise. Today, they are in a Net Debt position (£9.4m) and facing a 'challenging' UK SME market, yet they’ve committed to a £85m structural return over two years.

To me, that signals a shift from opportunistic buybacks (clearing out excess cash) to strategic capital allocation. By freezing the dividend (which has 4x+ cover), they are essentially saying:

'We’d rather buy our own shares at sub-950p than grow a yield that the market isn't rewarding anyway.'

The 2024/25 period saw £72m returned from a position of massive surplus. The 2026/27 period sees £85m returned while 'sweating' a much leaner balance sheet. That’s a much higher-conviction move from the Board that the current price is a floor."

Mr Scruff's post on LSE is spot on:

"..the buybacks are much higher than last time, so this isn’t the same setup. On forward numbers, dividends plus buybacks are covered at roughly 1.5x by free cash flow, so there’s no stress there at all. And just to be clear on the balance sheet, the £-9m net debt is simply the residue of the £152m+ Starface acquisition, after buybacks and dividends. With current cash generation, that gets paid down even while the buybacks and dividends continue.

I am not sure what update some LSE members are reading. The buy backs are massively bigger. The company is not ex-growth, it is growing around low DOUBLE figures. I can only imagine the those going short are here for some sort of confirmation bias before they close! Good luck!

I am not sure what update some LSE members are reading. The buy backs are massively bigger. The company is not ex-growth, it is growing around low single figures. I can only imagine the those going short are here for some sort of confirmation bias before they close! Good luck!

Kat-079, if you forward-P/E SRB on the same basis as PAF. Do that and SRB screens at roughly 3.2×–5.6×, which makes the valuation gap. That said, multiple compression isn’t just about diversification or performance. It also reflects factors largely outside management’s control - jurisdiction risk, single-asset exposure and market liquidity. PAF benefits from scale and a broader asset base, which deserves some premium I suppose :-)

The flip side is operational gearing. SRB still has far more torque to gold and margins, whereas PAF has already done most of its heavy lifting operationally. This is why SRB remains a VERY strong bet.

Bought on the pull back. Still cheap vs the Junior Mining Index. Yes much of it a risk discount, but if your happy with that PAF can grow much faster operationally to EV than the index.

Newmont is a diversified $125 Billion dollar company. But we get your point. Lets catch up with PAF first and PAF is on a forward P/E of around 12 or less.

I know that was meant as banta, but you never know and I hope GG is well.

As Tax holidays are granted to projects, not to companies; I am sure a Lithium project would be profitable especially if self funded. Gives THX optionality.

Clued, you’ll have to excuse some of us. This downtrend has dragged on for 15 very long months. The business itself is solid. Management have done well where it actually matters and where they have control — just look at the year on year improvement in balance sheet strength. Where they haven’t delivered, the "x factor", that’s a different matter, and so Management are replaceable. I believe the CFO was replaced.

Any THX holder are right to really be thinking long-term, at least until the business is more de-risked in the eyes of institutions, specifically around mine life extension and geographic diversification. Otherwise sell THX and buy a double or tripple leveraged physical gold.

@IBABFO 2.0: without a seller, none of us would be able to hold a stock — especially an undervalued one. THX’s growth has been phenomenal despite the valuation disconnect, and we simply don’t know the reason for the selling. It could be as mundane as an institution hitting a position limit, a new fund manager reshaping a portfolio, or even a high-net-worth individual forced to sell for entirely non-market reasons.

Yep and that’s exactly why, on a relative performance basis, THX still hasn’t pushed beyond the 76p October high, while PAF (helped by the FTSE 250 listing) and even SRB which is another solid operator have already moved through last year’s highs.

Moving up nicely with the Junior Index while SRB is not a “news every month” stock. When it goes quiet, that’s usually neutral to positive operations ticking along, no surprises. I know Serabi Gold is drilling, should we be expecting more drill results, the last one was 7th Apr 2025?

There has been a large seller and buyer agreeing a price under 70p. I see this as bullish and pinned current prices.

GAMA is the best GARP stocks. It will probably been taken out at 1200p.