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I don't really know Nuttall's fund but I know the fund are selling gas for heavier oil because he's a trader looking for outperformance based on a seasonality that worked last year... but that is not guaranteed every year and based on bottom-up analysis (to be fair Toney does really well) , but simply looking at the numbers this is too cheap from here. I have just pressed the buy button on another 20,194 shares.
G_G_G I can understand your view. The crux of the II issue is the income vs growth chart with the funny arrow in the presentation that was very arguably not pointing in the direction that the forward numbers and plan indicated. You are right in a way because high dividends are not tax efficient to institutions which is why the majors are doing more buybacks to keep II instead of dividends. For private investors, massive capital gains is not good (unless ISA etc...) and instead dividends had been better (yes there are new lower dividend allowances and stuff to consider for UK residents, but generally speaking for around the world dividends are better for private investors).
However saying all that, there are funds like AEI that hold DEC and are geared towards high dividends and some growth. But these trusts are rare, however with this high-rate environment, they should be increasing in number.
Saying all that it seems I am pessimistic on growth, I am not, its just the level of growth has changed.
Buybacks continue alongside commitments to Our Next Energy a 1 billion dollar company:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RSE/rel-commits-125m-to-our-next-energy-6ckghif685ssad6.html
I am not filling my boots, but I have bought in small today after selling above 30p. Most investors won't have the patience if this drags on at 5p. Will you, especially if you have filled your boots too much?
I am adding to my I3 holdings today. But it is important for me to space this out as I take profits from Petrobras to buy I3E (and others). Please sell me your shares :p
USD up strongly too but I am not going to monitor this daily. LON:FEDG is useful to add to any charting tools or for quick look on Google finance.
Agricore I must have incorrectly calculated the NAV. The report was hard to understand and family life was and still is hectic. Draft Unaudited Net Asset Value $739 so that is £652.38 million when I calculated (today £659.23) vs last quarter's $759 million (£681million). This is nomore than a 5% change.
But doing a quick check on the GBP vs GDP for the period I got a 7% increase in the GBP so I am non the wiser. Happy to use your calculations.
Agree this is the most undervalued energy trust vs say BERI the closest comparison.
Very exciting. One day the market will see it.
"Jadestone is a Bucket List stock, has one of the best management teams in the sector and a portfolio which apart from Montara and Maari would in most years do better than pretty much anything in its peer group.
Montara excepted and clearly they made the best decision with regard to Maari, even though they had been led to believe that the deal would go ahead as negotiated, life goes on and I am totally confident that the M&A team will come up with a number of high quality deals.
With regards to trading these results are acceptable but anyone who knows Paul Blakeley will know that that is simply not good enough. Capex below guidance does not cut the mustard indicating as it does the company has not been busy enough.
Good performances from Stag and Peninsula and with Akatara due to bring on first gas in 1H 2024 mean that 2023 starts well and assuming Montara resumes in Q1 2023 JSE should be on a sound footing. Bring on the M&A team, if they can find more deals like the CWLH one then this year could restore faith in the company. "
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/02/oil-price-jadestone-hurricane-capricorn-echo-and-finally/
Charlie156 your spot on and if you're after certainty then stick to majors like BP. There is no way you should in JSE.
mount teide also wrote: "Going by the M&A comments in today's update and statements made in H2/2022, I would be very surprised were negotiations for the acquisition of a further material chunk, even operatorship, of CWLH were not already at a very advanced stage, and have an effective economic date extremely attractive to shareholders."
thommie wrote on a similar note: "well it's obvious from the wording today, that there seems to be at least one further aquisition that has been finished already, but cant be announced because it needs financing Jse will only get after montara has been restarted. It seems they intend to do it as an RBL type which ofc needs the prove that the reserves can be extracted. So all depends on the montara restart for now."
Will be interesting to see what Malcy says... or not, Malcy is very random.
Mount teide: "Based on Montara recommencing production during Feb 2023, I can see the company having the potential to generate an average production of 21.5k boepd during 2023, before any further acquisitions.
3.5k - Stag
1.5k - Sinp
5.5k - PM
2.5k - CWLH
8.5k - Mont
With an average OPEX of $25/boe, this has the potential to generate over $500m of operating cash flow in 2023, at an average Brent price of $85/bbl and average realised sales premium of $5/bbl (JSE averaged $7.88/bbl in 2022).
AIMHO/DYOR
mount teide
Not sure what you mean bistable. JSE has been up 20% from lows and another 30% to get back to previous peaks. Greate RNS today and I can't believe we increased cash position. Can't wait for the push in Gas for winters to come.
It feels to me many of you are holding out for a strategy that no longer exists. One that aligns with Miltons small-cap funds. Once your all gone (including Tony... sorry you just don't realise it yet) the share price here will become stable and I3E can grow at our new pace with lower risk than anything in Miltons micro-cap funds that I actually do hold small amounts. I also hold Milton's MIGO trust with a different strategy but that is not relevant.
Giltedge I would think most of the income holders holding I3E do hold Petrobras. I hold PBR it via IBZL. It's not a choice between one or the other when you construct your portfolio. I probably own over 8000 companies. Brazil is cheap and I have been buying since December. But I3E can grow much faster than Petrobras though who knows what company will win over the long run in total return terms as we don't have a time machine and nor do you.
Well there are like I3 Energy, they did it with debt to start with can scale organically now, but I suspect most here hold other stocks in a balanced portfolio. If AXL can do an I3 Energy then we would all be VERY happy.
I am an accumulator here so happy to see dips like today to buy into.
I hope this dips within 2-week period. The spread is really wide preventing me from adding under my own rules.
China’s oil and gas demand declines in 2022 as a result of its covid-19 policies. China to account for 50% of currently projected global oil demand growth in 2023.... I think JSE will do alright opening now under such a great narrative this year.
Results out. A small decline that dwarfed the share price fall. Share buybacks to continue. I am a pessimistic sort but with the bigger picture, the share price should move upwards from here.
£1m bought at 591.18p, the seller(s) selling at 590.00p. No longer filling me with confidence for tomorrow morning.
We needed flatter revenue diversification amongst the mines. Single overweight makes it very hard for us to see into the future... but clearly not other shareholders in the know. At least the in-the-know shareholders prevented us from falling from a greater height. They may even be buying now the news is out... they always do in any share.