Member Info for Danger_Mouse

In mining, temporary shutdowns after serious incidents are usually short-lived and procedural, and when they happen they’re normally disclosed at the same time as the notification RNS. Companies don’t sit on that information, if operations are suspended, even locally, it’s typically stated up front.

Historically, once the immediate reviews are completed and any corrective actions agreed, operations resume fairly quickly. The process is about compliance and learning, not prolonged disruption. So if there had already been a material shutdown, you’d usually expect it to be flagged clearly alongside the incident notice, rather than emerging later as a surprise.

That’s not to downplay the seriousness of the event itself, but from an operational standpoint, these situations tend to be contained and resolved, not open-ended.

If there are any left, think what they would do at EOD. The company started buying as low as 909, allow the buybacks to buy at these low prices to help long term share holders an increased EPS. Share price is well managed for longs.

Speculators are selling expecting a shut down RNS after lunch. I've been through similar situations with PAF many years ago when it was around 17p. Underground mining can be risky.

Apologies here with proper plain text formatting at current price of 915p:

1) GAMA Valuation:, at ~880–920p you’re buying:

~7.5–8% FCF yield (that like a Utility or HY bond but for a company with low single digit growth!)

~9–10× adj. earnings

~4× dividend cover

~3–3.5% p.a. buyback yield

That is cheap for a:

* ~90% recurring revenue business

* net-debt-free in economic terms

* with Germany doing the heavy lifting

* You do not need upgrades or hero growth for this to work.

2) Cash returns are real, not cosmetic

* Buybacks are large, funded, and multi-year

* Dividend is fixed and very safe

* Buybacks + dividend are ~1.5x covered by FCF

* This is not a company pretending confidence — it’s behaving like one.

3) The shorts: scary on paper, weak in practice

* Total disclosed shorts ~1.7% → not high

* They are not increasing in aggregate

* One major short (Marshall Wace) has already trimmed

* One (AHL) added — that’s a tactical fight, not conviction collapse

Most importantly:

* Shorts are not being joined.

* That tells you there’s no fresh negative thesis emerging.

* At ~900p, GAMA is priced like a no-growth, ex-cash utility. It should be:

Fair value: ~1,350p – 1,500p

Midpoint: ~1,450p

That’s ~60% upside from ~900p achievable without hero growth or upgrades

It's important to pause and acknowledge the human reality behind the statement. A fatality is a tragedy first and foremost, a life lost, a family affected, and colleagues impacted, and that should never be reduced to technical analysis. Investigations exist to learn and prevent recurrence, but respect for those involved has to come before conclusions. It’s right that the company and regulators take the time needed to understand what happened and ensure lessons are applied, rather than rushing to judgement or speculation.

Please retail investors need only buy at lunchtimes and not buy at other times. You make it too easy for shorts. I added at lunch.

There are 3 core reasons to buy GAMA as a 1-2 year investment from here:

1) GAMA Valuation:, at ~880–920p you’re buying:

~7.5–8% FCF yield (that like a Utility or HY bond but for a company with low single digit growth!)

~9–10× adj. earnings

~4× dividend cover

~3–3.5% p.a. buyback yield

That is cheap for a:

~90% recurring revenue business

net-debt-free in economic terms

with Germany doing the heavy lifting

You do not need upgrades or hero growth for this to work.

2) Cash returns are real, not cosmetic

Buybacks are large, funded, and multi-year

Dividend is fixed and very safe

Buybacks + dividend are ~1.5× covered by FCF

This is not a company pretending confidence — it’s behaving like one.

3) The shorts: scary on paper, weak in practice

Total disclosed shorts ~1.7% → not high

They are not increasing in aggregate

One major short (Marshall Wace) has already trimmed

One (AHL) added — that’s a tactical fight, not conviction collapse

Most importantly:

Shorts are not being joined.

That tells you there’s no fresh negative thesis emerging.

At ~900p, GAMA is priced like a no-growth, ex-cash utility. It should be:

Fair value: ~1,350p – 1,500p

Midpoint: ~1,450p

That’s ~60% upside from ~900p

Achievable without hero growth or upgrades

In reality, it’s a cash-compounding, buyback-heavy, Germany-levered business that could see more upside than Fair value.

Classic Monday morning games. We hit 925p early, but the shorts are fighting to keep us under the 50-day MA (913.60p).

They’ve managed to drag it to 911p during the low-volume period, but notice the floor at 909.2p held firm. Remember, the company was paying up to 932p on Friday. If you're selling at 911p, you're giving the company a better deal than they got last week. I'm watching the 14:00 restart, that's when the buyback usually steps back in to defend the close. The shorts will do what they can to get out at a lower price. Not advice. DYOR.

Shorts reduced. Only a matter of time...

There was not really a rise in gold today as it was the dollar that fell hard... thats why I suspect gold stocks did not perform for us today like it did yesterday.

Well a new trend needs to form as the downward one is now broken! The shorts were betting on a close below 913p to keep the "bearish" narrative alive. By closing at 920p on a high-volume buy UT, the market has essentially said "No."

Update: 11:55: The 50-day Moving Average (913.60p) has just been broken on volume. This is where the shorts get desperate. Expect a 'scare' in the next hour—they’ll try to paint a 'double top' at 923p to trick us into selling.

To the PIs: If you're buying today, do it with the intention of holding until the March 24 results. The shorts are looking for your 'loose' shares because they can't get any from the institutions. Don't be their exit door. Every share we hold is one more the company will eventually have to buy back at a premium in its £42.5m program. Not advice. DYOR.

While it it did not open its at 920p. The "shorts" (AHL Partners, GLG, and Marshall Wace) are currently in a very difficult position as they defend the 920p–925p resistance zone. While they may attempt to add tactical short positions to suppress a breakout, the "mechanical" pressure from the buyback and institutional buyers makes this a high-risk gamble for them.

Not unexpected for such a defensive trust. It's a good price today. It usually performance with INPP.

The gold rally looks unstoppable. The odd thing is unlike silver, the volume in gold does not look bubble like.

96.5k UT at 919p today. If we open at 920p+ tomorrow morning, it means the market has accepted the 919p level as the new floor.

It's a great start to the day, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. We haven't broken the trend lines just yet. We’re currently knocking on the door of the 50-day moving average at 923p.

That 917p–925p zone is going to be the real test. The shorts will try to defend that ceiling to keep the 'downward trend' narrative alive. But with the buyback deleting 20k shares a day and the 121k UT from yesterday proving institutional appetite, the pressure is building behind the dam. No need to chase the rally; just hold. The mechanics are doing the heavy lifting while we wait for a clean break above 925p.

There is a million pound UT trade not reported on LSE website but is there on London Stock Exchange Website. Enjoy.

Darientaylor, you might see another short term “overbought” phase now that Trump’s speech is out of the way. That could mean a bit more upside first, followed by a pullback that leaves your £50k position briefly in the red before the broader move higher resumes. If gold does push on towards $5,000, it should make holding the position a lot less stressful.

Avalueinvestor, I hear you, but we have to look at the regulatory handcuffs here. Under UK Market Abuse Regulation (UK MAR) Safe Harbour rules, the broker is generally restricted by a 25% volume cap. This means they cannot purchase more than 25% of the average daily trading volume (ADTV) on any single day.

With GAMA's ADTV at roughly 380,000 shares, Investec is legally limited to about 95,000 shares per day. Thats much more yes... but taking 17,000 shares like they did yesterday is a tactical choice to avoid driving the price up against themselves no matter how much we want it up now! If they were to blast the full 95,000 limit in a thin market, they would spike the price too quickly. Its tactical...

The strategy here is about persistence. By spreading that 42.5 million pound budget across the year, they create a permanent buyer that the shorts simply cannot outlast. The fact that the buyback might last until October or November is actually a positive for us because it provides a constant bid that prevents any downward trend from sticking. They are essentially boiling the frog by slowly removing the float rather than giving the shorters a volatile spike to trade against.